Too hard to predict but my hunch is they stop increasing rates from here or at least become much more cautious with rate increases. Seems like they were already fairly close to getting to the upper end of their range anyway. They need to let sentiment settle, and confidence in the banking system return. Fear and greed is at extreme pessimism.
In the UK financial stability won out over inflation (although that seemed like a much more serious issue with gov bond yields spiking dramatically).
I don't really see how the current inflationary environment is good for low income earners - let's just say if they are getting a 6% wage increase but inflation is also 6% then they are just treading water and in reality it looks like most people's wages are not keeping up with inflation, meaning they are actually losing purchasing power.
My own view is that the former 0% interest rate regime was much worse for the bottom 90% of people - all it did was to inflate asset prices and benefit those that already owned assets. People with collateral could essentially borrow money for free while others are locked out of getting credit. The free money also lead to a cycle of borrowing and investing creating the everything bubble. I'm glad we are back to a more normalized interest rate environment and hope we never go back to the central bank policies of the last 13+ years. Hopefully we continue to clear excess out of the system and asset prices correct meaningfully to allow ordinary people to be able to build wealth from here.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/investor-anxiety-hits-a-fever-pitch-after-silicon-valley-bank-collapse-3cbf94b7?mod=djemRTE_h
Seems like a good time to buy some good companies.
To be fair to the Fed their messaging has been very consistent since they started on this rate hike path. It is people's interpretation / expectations that have continued to be in opposition to what the Fed has been saying.
This is news to people? Haven't we had enough gov't bailouts in our lifetime? We need creative destruction to start clearing out more of these zombie companies so we can finally reset.
Exactly. In my opinion the large amount of float BRK has available reduces its cost of capital which gives it an advantage in capital intensive industries which is why BRK is the largest owner of PP&E in America. It is the best owner of these types of assets.
Same. I don't really have any high conviction ideas. Been slowly adding more of a value tilt to my portfolio with some emerging markets, bank stocks, GVLU, BRK as well as sitting on more cash than usual waiting for something good to come along.