Longnose

I think we have a ton of noise on both sides. Bears screaming AI bubble. Bulls screaming AI is gonna go to the moon. But my crystal ball which is powered by a hamster in my basement is telling me that while we have pockets of froth, markets are going to continue to bumpy road up and to the right for a good while. Unless we have another major political or economic event (war, major debt defaults, currency collapses, pandemics, etc) On the consumer sentiment portion i think its only going to get worse as wealth gap continues to expand and create pressure on those who struggle to accumulate assets.

Added more Goog

To use the redditism: Username checks out. all jokes aside. welcome to the forum and hope you hang around.

Join us in the thread.

The great question is now that we are decade later. What are the stocks that will make their owners rich in the next decade? Now that many of the mentioned stocks are at the top of the marketcap list.

Eh... i massively oversimplified. BRK makes money on its CAPEX. But I would argue GOOG and META make more money on their CAPEX. Which IMO would be why Warren is sitting on such a mountain of cash. He wants to deploy it where he can make more returns. If he felt any of his current businesses could ingest more cash im 100% confident in Warren/Ajit/Greg/Management to deploy it into those businesses. But im not much of an arguer so ill move on from this discussion

The problem with BRK and Utilities is they are spending CAPEX on non income producing assets. Whereas a large portion of the CAPEX in GOOG, META world have potential to make significant returns. I feel every year their CAPEX has been at an all time high and it still continues to product more value for every $$ invested than before. If a business can invest a Dollar and produce 2-3. why would you stop? These businesses haven't proven that they've hit a wall on income producing CAPEX yet. Will it get there?? eventually? are we there yet? that's where uncertainty is at its highest. So pick your play. UP, DOWN, Sit on the side and watch the show? I have a large bet on GOOG at the moment. They gonna continue to expand that TAM and the CAPEX is enabling that. That's my bet.

Hmm... yea bit different graphs there. on ORCL and NVDA

Whats truly magnificent is that despite the constant growing of CAPEX. The returns on said CAPEX stayed strong and grown with it.

Hes got an pretty interesting thesis on some still untapped stocks on the ASX for rare earth stuff.

I think the new DFV is this steve zissou character. most the people who actually matter from WSB have moved to this raceto10million subreddit. This guy killed it on his rare earth minerals call and is diamond handing the way DFV did.

I dont consider anything X to be source material but some people have good insights over there sure. I haven't dug into the whole energy thing a ton. But i have seen quite a few sources stating how real the challenges are right now for finding energy solutions to fix it. BE (bloom energy thread is exactly this) and there are other companies too. Valuations on these things are bonkers but then again there are these random ass companies where Google and openai and others are basically kingmakers when they give these multi billion dollar contracts to these companies to go build them the infrastructure or energy to sustain this expansion. I'm not playing with lots of these other companies as they are way to hard to predict and the valuations are whack. But I am deep in google at the moment as i think they are going to lead / win this AI expansion.

Not sure if this was meant to be pro or against. But i agree here that it is a once in a generation event and we are gonna see some serious expansion and growth. There are real opportunities and you can find ways to hedge yourself against a bubble potential.

Eh lots of things better than gold to own.

More along the lines of thinking that money / development will continue to flow into the ARB network as HOOD continues to develop on the chain. A few years back i spread money around the AVAX network. Looking for tokens and projects that are "real" with real dev behind them. Im not talking big dollars here but if I pick 10-15 tokens / projects that have potential of unicorning within the ARB network I'd feel OK about it.

I hear ya on that front. Right now im only in BTC. This is the first time in 2 years ive thought of going back into an alt coin network.

https://www.investopedia.com/robinhood-s-token-versions-of-stocks-11771765 After listening to Vlad at the All-In summit I started looking into what blockchains and such that they are doing this work on. Most of it appaers to be L2 on Etherium via the Arbitrum Network. Im curious if others have looked into the stuff that Robinhood is doing here. When i first started playing with crypto this was exactly what i wished was happening. Im starting to explore if there are good opportunities to spread some money around in the arbitrum network to capture some of the growth that will likely happen as development continues in this chain. The EU/Private Companies/US Government are all uncertain / not thrilled about it. But this is the kind of disruption that will happen with our without robinhood and IMO in the long run will be a good thing.

Makes me think of Burry's prediction back in like 2021 or something like that. That we are in an index bubble. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/peter-lynch-big-short-michael-burry-passive-investing-stocks-bubble-2021-12#:~:text=Wall Street legend Peter Lynch,value stocks and shareholder activism.

Comparison is the thief of joy. That being said its hard not to compare ourselves. Something that i re-read recently in poor charlies alamanac that I actually readjusted my portfolio pretty substantially about 1.5 months ago. "I think it can be a rational choice, in some situations, for a family or foundation to remain ninety percent concentrated in one equity. Indeed, I hope the Mungers follow roughly this course." I realized i was getting pretty spread around and that I really should be concentrating into what I really believe in. So i sold a lot of my positions and I really now only have like four. I dont yet have the balls to be all in on one. But maybe ill get there. I think diversification really drags on a portfolio and having a few really strong bets can really move the needle. (in either direction) Munger was early on BABA. But its rebounding. It will likely get back to what it was and beyond.

I get your points and agree with some and disagree with others. I think some of the biggest points tho is the "rails" might wear out, but Google and Microsoft have already bought all the best parts for years to come. Even if some new company had a ton of money, they couldn't even get the chips they'd need to compete. Plus, it's not just the hardware. These companies have been collecting and organizing data for decades, and that's a serious moat too. You can't just get that overnight.

Maybe... But im happy to continue to bet that MSFT and GOOG will own all those rails and buy all of NVDA's inventory and even if its constantly evolving and going obsolete. Those rails / data are as real a moat as any.

I think the better parallel for Google, Microsoft, and the other tech giants isn't to the internet companies of 2000, but to the railroad companies. The infrastructure required for modern AI, the vast data centers, specialized chips, and global networks is so immense and costly that it's more like laying railroad tracks across the country than building a new website. Companies like Google and Microsoft have been building this infrastructure for years. They have the "rails" already in place, giving them a significant advantage. existing cloud services (Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure, Amazon AWS) are the modern equivalent of the railroad lines. They are the essential infrastructure that enables all new AI applications, and is extremely difficult for new competitors to build that kind of scale and distribution. This isn't to say a new player can't build a great "train" (a killer AI application), but they'll likely have to run it on someone else's tracks. The real power, and the "moat," lies with the companies that own the underlying infrastructure and distribution. In that sense, the Googles and Microsofts are more like the Union Pacific and Central Pacific of the AI era they're the enablers who will likely profit regardless of which AI applications become the biggest success.

Another interesting view point I stumbled on while asking AI further about this and asking if certain companies i like have some of these dynamics. is "Scale Economies Captured" rather than "Scale Economies Shared." "Scale Economies Captured." It leverages its scale and data for immense profitability and capital returns to shareholders while delivering a more effective service for its customers. This suggests that the SES model is not a monolithic concept but must be re-evaluated and re-contextualized for different industries, particularly the asset-light, data-driven digital economy.

Few more interesting ones to look at. Heico (HEI) American Express (AXP) D-Mart (Avenue Supermarts Limited) (India Stock Exchange) Nubank (NU) (Brazil) Wise (WPLCF)

Up 19% YTD 33% TTM. Not including my BTC position.