Longnose

This was really good. I agree, I would put myself into level 3 with some of the projects ive done so far. Its gonna be a really interesting shift. I like that he acknowledges how challenging it will be for larger orgs to start leveraging and adopting this transition. SAAS is not dead far from it. But this shift will change the way that coding is done for these orgs. And it will take substantial amount of time and money to make the changes required. But new smaller nimble players will start building some crazy shit in the next few years in the 4 and 5 levels and it will be cool to see what they build. But legacy software and systems will not be replaced overnight by AI coding Agents.

I expect AI will enable some wild TAM expansions... hence market tailwinds.

I dunno know market as a whole has some serious tailwinds behind it IMO barring a black swan war or plague or something. and Some some major names in SAAS are getting stupid cheap. AI will not replace all of these SAAS businesses. It will make them stronger and more efficient with less OPEX and potentially more CAPEX as they need to build their own AI infrastructure internally.

VRT - Cooling systems for datacenters.

I was a little surprised by this too. I feel like i see all sorts of serious disconnects in the market. But the big "value" players are still scared on the sides. I mean i know AI is a real wild card and If we believe we are in a bubble and it starts to deflate even the disconnected value stuff will continue to deflate with the balloon. But I'm not sold. I keep feeling like we got some serious tailwinds coming at the economy over the next few years.

Ive done a few with third bridge. I also set my rates very high so not a lot but a few a year.

umm... this already is Amazon. If you are big enough you may have an internal person to escalate to but that internal amazon rep is submitting a ticket to some internal software. Anyone who has ever sold on Amazon you need to operate your business as if you will never have a human to support you.

Haha fair enough. I have a large position in ADBE right now. I know sentiment will likely persist negative for some time. But I cant bring myself to believe that AI will enable their demise. If anything It will grow their TAM IMO.

I dunno man i still struggle to get behind this narrative that software is dead. having vibe coded several little projects myself thus far its an amazing enabler but to say you're gonna build something that replaces these businesses and all that they address? Man i don't know about that. The bottom end stuff that supports the lower tier market sure. competition will get fierce in that market. But anything that supports enterprise IMO will continue to persist and likely dominate its space. getting an enterprise creative team off adobe? doesn't seem likely. getting your business to switch CRM's from salesforce to some vibe coded solution? unlikely. But sure your an entrepreneur with a sub 50M$ business and you don't wanna pay for all the bells and whistles of those companies sure you can get away with some vibe coded solution. but if/when you mature. you'll join the safety/security of the big player packages when you can afford it. Or you can risk getting sued for using images nanobanana created without verifying copyright or getting sued cuz your vibe coded CRM accidently leaked PII for all the customers you've been collecting personal information on.

New ren. clipped to my favorite part. As his things are a bit more story telling via music/rap than just straight songs.

Name Shame! Name Shame! haha

I agree with most of this. Sure you can vibe code something that feels like a real project in a weekend. However, to the point made above. To scale your vibe coded application unless you are an engineer and understand how to scale something your application would likely need to be torn down and recoded by someone who understands scalable dev architecture. The AI Vibe Coding will always struggle to project your future needs so they wont lay foundational things that allow you to bolt on or grow the project. Then if you dont know what you coded cuz the AI did it you wont know how to instruct the AI to fix it. I am confident that again with a strong engineer prompting the engineer can read the generated code see the flaws an instruct AI to add foundational layers or bolt on points to the code to make things more scalable but it takes someone whos been there and done it to know what those are and where they are required. I agree on the automation / AI portion too. We are going to see some fun gains in efficiencies of companies that can figure out how to adopt well.

The contrarian play here is that Adobe isn't just making "assets" anymore, they’re owning the entire enterprise Content Supply Chain. Sure, some startup can gen a cool cat video, but big brands need 10,000 versions of an ad that won't get them sued. That’s where Firefly wins; it’s "commercially safe" and baked right into the tools everyone already uses. The market is freaking out over nothing because AI is actually a massive tailwind. Brands now need 10x more content than before, and Adobe is the only player fully equipped to manage, edit, and legal clear that mountain of data at scale. You’ve got massive switching costs. good luck moving a global team off those proprietary file formats. Additionally, the data shows it’s working: AI users are sticking around longer (churn is down 10%). We're looking at a classic "fear of the new" mispricing. Adobe isn't being replaced; it's becoming the high-margin, agentic backbone of the whole creative economy.

+1

you did it Tegrity value it is!

Lots of GS and Pabrai hate. IMO all of it unwarranted. Were all educated adults here and so are they and so are the people who give them money.

Sometimes AI makes cool stuff haha

I remember enjoying the book. Felt it simple. I think the only think that has stuck with me from it tho is the idea of Social compounding. His discipline for years of sending daily thank you notes was inspiring. I tried it for about 6 months a few years back and ran out of steam. hahaha.

This is exactly what i did when I first started investing on my own. I still have that 1 and only BRK.B. I will never sell it. But I believe for me there are bigger fish to catch in the sea to grow my small sums of capital.

I feel like he posted his story somewhere back in like 2021. But search is brutal on this platform. But i think UK cited it right he made a deep highly concentrated bet on BAC with leaps, warrants, and common. That paid off massive for him. I believe he made few other very concentrated bets after that too that paid off really good for him too.

I like this. I need to adopt it today.

I am in a similar situation. And last year i realized with 15 or so positions that when things would win. It didn't really matter to the whole portfolio. Then one night i flipped open my copy of poor charlies almanack and landed on this page. During the next week i narrowed down my highest convictions bets and now I intend to run 2-3 at most 4. positions until i feel I hit a threshold / age where I feel preservation is more important than growth. In theory Id like to say I have the stones to find a few of those wonderful companies that I can just "never" sell. But early in Charlie and Buffets careers they definitely traded more than the HODL mantras they use now that they have larger sums.

I agree with @gfp Its cuz of a massive rotation of big money out of software and chasing some of the FOMO in AI and into other sectors. But some of these software names are starting to feel very disconnected.

ADBE & GTLB