Longnose

The whole AI and drug / medicine thing. I have been rather curious about it and the reality and how it will shape out. I keep hearing about it on podcasts but have yet to see or read about it in something really materially or source level materials. If anyone has any I would be interested in learning a little bit more. Ive not typically invested in biotech or pharma because its outside my circle of competetence but i love learning and would love to read something more than "AI is changing the world of pharma and drug making"

Totally get it. AND i agree with you. I view it as a good prescreener. does the AI summary warrant a deep dive worth going 800 pages deep? Or did the assistant say this company is full of shit?

Did similar with open office. Wife couldnt adopt... Tried to push her to exclusively use google docs/sheets. Still couldnt adopt. So back i am to paying for GD microsoft. Google has gotten good I think they are picking up most SMB players. But if your deeper into bigger data and try to gradutate from SMB you end up in microst. Microsoft still owns the big guns.

I use it all the time. (you just always have to fact check anything when it comes to numbers) One of my most preferred ways to use it is more on the thesis standpoint. I use TIKR for screens and numbers mostly. For me I find a lot of value in opinions. Ive subscribed to SA for years just to have access to the comments on articles. I dont care what most articles say but i want to know what other educated (and uneducated) people are agreeing with or arguing against. Recently, ive been using AI to take that opinion side of things. If im bullish i want to argue my case against someone. I find a lot of value in someone or something playing devils advocate with me and AI is really good at that. So i usuually know my own numbers and dont let the AI quote numbers at me. But more in debating thesis. When im exploring industries im less familiar with ill have gemini do deep reseach on the industry and give me good comprehensive reports that can be quite educational. I view it like im the CIO and I have an Sr Analyst to delegate things i want to research to. Make me a 20 page report on the history of company "X" or "go read the last 15 earnings call transcripts look for what management has said they are going to do and then compare that with what they actually succeeded on. After your written summary put the execution list in a table with completed not completed and transcript action was stated in and if completed when reported completed. " I dont have a problem reading and because AI makes shit up sometimes you do need to fact check. But its getting better and better to the point that 90+ % of the time its right so yea its helpful At least for me.

GOOG TBTC JOE MU BTC

Welcome !

I think the Software is dead narrative is an area where ive been looking for my bigger opportunities of 2026. Software is far from dead and its evolving but some of the big players are bit beaten down while performance is still strong. Like ADBE. I think why all the capital is chasing returns on the AI fomo there will be some disconnects in real value on some of the big players that are driving real value.

Mine gave me this

I've been digging into VRT -- Vertiv Holdings Co. They are an essential backbone for cooling these ai data centers. 10$ Billion Dollar backlog and growing. Strong ROIC at 22%. And i dont think everything AI is fully priced in here.

Ai at its finest. Parody on https://youtu.be/VYOjWnS4cMY?si=ZhV5fV_GJs7lr2EW 9e76d8fb8a67e5bf3fdfad13e2192fba.mp4

2025 = 42.32% Went pretty overweight in google around July with 60 / 40 split between shares and options. Which carried the overperformance.

In the other frame of mind. I like reviewing the people i highly respect and are often not wrong or carry a similar longer term mindset. and seeing what did they get wrong or maybe they were just too early. Then can I replicate their thesis and buy in at a better price?

I would say this is very similar to myself. Being able to collect a group of people whom I can loosely trust that know certain industries better than i ever will. And then having the ability to back of the napkin math a similar thesis and having the stones to put money behind those investments has been very good to me. I have plenty of ideas I've generated on my own. But I've collected a group of sites & sources (COBF, Seeking Alpha, Dataroma, & Yahoo finance when i dredging the bottom of the barrel) and then follow certain people on those sites to narrow down my decision making has makes the processes so much quicker.

my immediate thought on bottom of ocean stuff is potential for ongoing maintenance. The ocean is brutal with salt, animals, algae, and more... I feel you'd have ongoing costs of something that the ocean will be constantly trying to erode/destroy. Send it to space... has lots of its own challenges but seems much more prone to up front costs that if you can navigate then it should be much more stable and no where near as much potential ongoing maint. I'm just a gomer so i could be wrong. I don't want anything that lives on the bottom of the ocean. and I have personal love / infatuation with the ocean.

While there may be parallels. I still strongly disagree that AI boom is comparable to the .com fiber optic boom.

Thats because chatgpt is his best customer.

With the ventures that Musk pioneers. Is with almost all of them. I would be like that's absurd and likely impossible. Then... mad man Musk makes the impossible possible AND starts scaling it to affordability. I would never bet against any of that mans ventures.

We should start a thread. What about OPEX and S&M being such high ratios of revenue (i read this in an article but havent dug in myself, YET). It is impressive YoY Growth on revenue consistently. But man they are burning that cash...

Landman S2: Great! so far Stranger Things S5 first 4 episodes. - Been great looking forward to the rest of them later this month.

I sort of agree with this analogy. Distribution is king. But its funny as a linux user its incredible how far its come. Ubuntu is a really robust operating system now. But it will never overrun mac or windows. The way I view it is kind of like whoever referenced the recent Lynn alden article. The banks and all these other institutions are actually leveraging ETH right now with stable coins to reduce thier own costs and transaction times leveraging the stable coins on ETH. But they are still gonna rake the world with transaction costs while reducing thier own costs. BTC like linux is a reasonable analogy in my mind. The gold hoarder the guy hedging against inflation the guy who doesn't wanna be slave to the institutions will go figure out BTC as a store of value and currency and will use it. But realistically most the world for a long time will still desire USD based assets. (Windows/mac)

I disagree with this. Beyond its store of value its original and primary purpose was peer to peer transaction digitally with no middle man. (not buy sell) I can send you $1M of bitcoin or $0.001 of Bitcoin with no bank or middle man between us and if using the lightning network less than a penny in fees with near instant settlement. So not only are you storing value that can cross any border but you can transact in it without paying 3%+ transaction fees to other parties for that transaction. Cant do that with gold so thats why we invented paper/coin currency. Then we couldnt do it digitally without paying employees to keep track of it all so we added fees and economy of scale allowed end users to transact mostly free while corporations pay the tax that allows our transactions. Now BTC does it all for nearly free and the blockchain proof of work keeps the integrity of the ledger.

I havent read this yet. But i will make time. I respect lyn's thoughts a lot. I have long held a similar opinion that most the alt coins are enablers to new technologies that will create serious new efficiencies for businesses and entities. The only one I feel is different and has the potential to function as a currency is Bitcoin. When you really start getting in an playing with the blockchains and transacting on them making your own tokens/nft's and see how they are made and what you can do with them you start to say wow I can think of dozens of ways to make things so much better with this technology. Robinhood is tokenizing private companies. They are tokenizing assets in europe and cutting out the stock brokers/exchanges. its causing some serious disruption. So overall i agree and will always be leary about putting money into the altcoin world. But you may accidently win the lottery by just being exposed.