changegonnacome

For Europe.......with friends like the US who needs enemies Back to what I mentioned a couple of pages back.......Macron has articulated this view.........Europe is a price taker of US foreign policy in the region and most certainly in other regions......Europe minus a robust German (& French) military capability....is a toothless tiger from strategic autonomy point of view.....the US and Europe are sympatico on so many things...we are great allies in that respect.......but there's divergence there too.......and the Ukraine/Russia stuff is an example.....perpetuating the war in Ukraine......is a mechanism by which the US can ensure structurally higher energy prices for German manufacturers they compete with......and the list goes on.......minus the billions of dollars the war is costing the US....in some respects there's lots of upside with limited downside.....the US gets to slowly cripple the Russian state/army fighting with other people soldiers......energy intensive European manufacturing becomes structurally uncompetitive vs. the US's unlimited Then you get interesting little incidents like the US spending a decade protesting against Nordstream 2 & ever closer energy integration between Europe and Russia..............and a gas pipeline getting blown up by mystery saboteur that no European country wants to talk about right now... The realpolitik of all this is very simple - and explained by the realist IR perspective: - a great power looks to secure its own region first....becoming a regional hegemon...the US spent much of the 1800's and early 1900's doing this...and was hugely successful....not a single person in the USA ever wakes up with concerns about neighbouring sovereign aggression....the US is totally secure with the Monroe Doctrine in place - regional hegemon then seeks to play in other regions (Europe/Asia/Africa) to contain and box in the rise of regional hegemon emerging that one day could go global - boxing in & constraining the emergence of regional hegemons is very logical.........a regional hegemon once they have dominated and secured their own region.....seeks to 'play' in other regions....potentially your region!!!!....cause thats exactly what you started doing once you'd secured yours....the US understands the playbook - the pivot to Asia by the USA....is not some charity exercise its concerned with ensuring China never fully dominates Asia in the way the USA dominates the Americas......if China achieved this regional hegemon state.....it would be likely to begin to play deeper games in South America/Caribbean bringing 'trouble' to the US's doorstep........its why a conflict in the South China sea at some point is so likely.....better to go toe to toe with China there....than the Caribbean Sea! - nations are chiefly concerned with their own survival and security....it drives everything in international relations....while we tell a heroes story about WWI & WWII.....great powers joined the conflict (WWI - britain, then the USA...and WWII (both)...as it became clear that Germany, if successful, would potentially emerge as a regional hegemon ala the Unites States if they didn't.....Britain and the USA at various junctures identified this as a strategic threat to their own sovereignty and security and joined the French in fighting. To contain China...and stop its emergence as a regional hegemon....we've already got bases all over Asia.....and are ready in various arenas to go toe to toe with China.....Korea, Taiwan, Japan....ideally you do it in a Ukraine fashion......send money/arms and let others die doing the fighting and furthering your strategic objectives of containing/diminishing a potential rival/competitor. Europe, as I mentioned needs to step up now with its own military capability aspirations, balance of power dynamics I think requires a third force between the USA and an emergent China.....left alone in a bilateral global competition the escalation dynamics are too easy to get out of control.....the situation is best served by a kind of EU referee but a referee with an army, nukes & artillery (the EU is already an economic superpower) and enough strategic autonomy to be neither China or US's "bitch".

But its fair to say that Ukraine is severely constrained for artillery and Russia not so much? Which given the nature of the current battlefield is a big advantage.

Artillery asymmetry between Russia and Ukraine/West is outrageous and a real problem. It’s disappointing to find the western allies so lacking in a war machine infrastructure…..another hollowing out perhaps of our collective industrial capability…..Biden/EU might need to sponsor an Artillery Act to build out the wests war machine again….it’s embarrassing to run out of artillery and so have to send cluster bombs instead…..while a fading power like Russia can seemingly supply infinite artillery to its troops…..I thought we were the ones with infinite economy resources and advanced military technology…..turns out, a bit like COVID supply chains, that we’ve atrophied another muscle we used to have…..Germany needs to stop making so many ball bearings for China and turns its not small engineering talents to artillery production and general weapons manufacturing.

Continues to be my base case......the Fed has stripped out credit growth from the source of funds equation what remains is wages.....and they appear to be motoring along at an unsustainably high level relative to productivity growth.....not enough for 5% inflation, no.....but something that bakes in the cake ~3.5%..........if 2% inflation is the target.......and long bond certainly believes it is.......then we are 50-75% away from the target rate. I remain convinced that we have seen the pain free inflation roll off and that head fake is now done with.....albeit it's been a slow roll.......the made in china/ukraine/covid inflation is now dead in the data......they are two things that are likely to occur next.......either: (a) we bounce along at ~3.5% headline, ~4%+ supercore, the Fed chickens out kinda heading into an election year and the economy does fine but the poorest shoulder the negative effects 3-4% inflation....and Dollar General loses more customers. In this scenario we are always open to inflation round trips...if we get another oil shock for example (b) the Fed does one more hike & then nothing, because nothing is all that's required now that the Fed funds rate is positive by ~250bps.....the economy slowly unravels, and slow is good....such that you can loosen against a negative force with not a whole load of momentum behind it (c) the Fed gets impatient and starts leaning into more hikes, start jawboning the market down & talking tough Option B is the most likely and my base case now.......you've got to go hit those wages in some respect.....the credit tightning and source of funds phase from everything i can see feels 'done' to me....you hit those wages by through wage moderation or less optimally job losses......QQQ ATH, SPY 4500, 3.6% unemployment just isn't the backdrop that secures that wage demand & employer non-acquiescence dynamic thats gonna pull down nominal wage growth and by extension nominal spending growth against a 1% productivity growth economy. The best soft-ish landing scenario I can think of is the pace of economic detorition accelerates soon...such that Nov/Dec/Jan....are a winter of employee job insecurity & a weak christmas spend period....both inform the transmission of 2023 to 2024....and we get a further moderation in core inflation on the foot of the weakness.....not good for company earnings, not good of the economy.....who knows the markets could do OK, this is the most anticipated recession of all time...they've had time to baten down the hatches so to speak...but fundamentally is SPY taking out ATH before inflation hits 2%...my gut is absolutely no way but lets see. If your a conspiracy theorist (I'm not) and what I'm about to say is the same thinking that leads people to believe that the election was stolen in 2020 as it requires you to believe that US institutions in this case Federal & state judges plus election officials are rotten to the core - is the Fed is a vipers nest of democrats pulling for Biden.....and they put the recession on hold by effectively threading water on further rate hikes after the next one and temporality accept elevated 3.5-4% inflation so as not to 'interfere' with the election. They might even ease up on QT too - kind of stealth interest rate cuts. Then after Nov 2024....they ratchet things up and induce a late 2024/early 2025 recession required to bring inflation back to 2%. Things haven't gotten that bad in Washington....I think the Fed chair & committee members are in the main honorable people...they are gonna continue to press the economy in a prudent way till it weakens the labor market.....knowing its the only way to 2 is by hitting the labor market/wages.

Also importantly missed by the crypto shill headlines - is that Ripple's 'fair notice' defense was rejected completely by the judge. Fair notice basically says the current laws are too vague such that one can’t hope to know if one is breaking the law or not….the argument in crypto has always been “this is highly innovative asset class.....we need 'new' securities laws as the old laws can’t govern the activity. The fair notice defense is therefore that your constitutional right to due process is violated if a law cannot be adequately & sensibly applied to an activity as there was no means by which you could have understood you were breaking the law cause of a failure of legislative rule making. The judge ruled that the securities laws on the books are clear and can be clearly apply to ITO's and ICO's and Ripple's fair notice defense that they couldn't have known what they were doing in 2017 was illegal by selling tokens cause the law is vague/undefined….this argument was resoundingly rejected. Again Howey applies and is applicable. Short version - no new securities laws are required by crypto as it pertains to INTIAL token or coin offerings for sure. Howey applies and 99.9% of ITO/ICO’s sold to whomever (institutional/retail) are unregistered securities. US based ICO/ITO sales to VC’s or the general Joe scmoh out there are toast.

Plenty of names that could correct by this much for sure.....I agree.....and only then would they be reasonably or just expensively priced..........I think what's becoming clear for sure.....is the lack of breath right now.........we all know the stats....the magnificent 8 etc etc delivering all the gains for 23......the FOMO trade is seeing a little more participation creep into things......but the FOMO trade/expandign breath trade is disappointedly (if your waiting for next bull market) into kind of meme things....the magnificent 8, meme stocks & crypto things are rallying......doesn't feel like the start of new bull market to me......feels like the middle of the end of the last one. You could make a crazy argument for TSLA at this valuation.......when the 10yr was 0.6% two years ago ........but with the 10y at ~4%........there is a very strong argument to say TSLA is more overvalued now with the updated discount rate than it was at the height of the COVID bubble. What lies ahead regardless of what the stock market is doing (it isn't the economy) - remains further tightening, cause inflation remains about 250% above target using the Fed's preferred measure......followed by continued deterioration of the economy in the face of this....there is an interesting factor with the CPI coming down as it has recently.....is the FF for the first time in how long??? a decade plus? Is firmly into real positive territory versus the CPI......200bps if you want to use the 3% headline number... History and common sense shows - that a deeply positive real FF rate (~2.5%+) is followed invariably by an economic downturn (recession)...back to the source of funds to spend in the real economy common sense argument......credit becomes unattractive...it impacts credit fueled spending....supporting the marginal employee...you know what happens next.......you'll see in the chart above seen as you mention dotcom.....that in the late 90's that rule was kind of broken....real FF moved into 2.5%++ territory around 1996-97 but the dotcom bubble it seems (wealth effects? famous Greenspan put) kept the economy levitating longer than history suggested it should with such a high real FF rate.........the other thing of note where the rule is slightly violated is where there was no inflationary backdrop....and you can see the Fed cutting rates in the chart and prolonging the expansion in these period 80's, 90's......problem now is the inflationary backdrop.....cutting too early is the sin JP is looking out for (correctly)......he's not looking to prolong this cycle...he's looking in some respects to end it.....this cycle zoomed out in the future will look like the late 50's, late 60's, mid-70's hiking begetting recessions....will be interesting to come back to this thread later on with the chart above in 2025..............with the exception of 2009......there really hasn't been one of these in 40yrs.......cause starting in 1981......bonds yields fell in an almost perfectly straight line for 40yrs with almost perfectly compliant inflationary backdrop (globalization/disinflation/china & eastern europe labor....disinflationary tech advances contributing.).......no wonder lots of market participants can't fathom what's gonna happen next and are bidding things to da moon.....they weren't around in the 50's, 60's or 70's......when the Fed last had an inflationary backdrop twinned with a hiking cycle/overheating economy....it just hasn't happened since then. One thing you cant deny is its great entertainment.......if your sick puppy and into this sort of thing

Totally agree - at each point of a transaction (to whom doesn't matter) the question of Howey is applied. Ripple's capital raising initial token offering....to whom doesn't matter....was an act of selling unregistered securities......promises and representations were made by token promoters to prospective purchasers of tokens which created a profit expectation through the endeavors of others. Back to my earlier posts.......excluding bitcoin & dogecoin.....I'm yet to come across a token that didn't start life as a unregistered securities offering. The judge today has restated that basic point........token/utility token whateve you call them.......these tokens dont will themselves into existence....they have founders, programmers, entrpeuners behind them......the very act of pushing them out into the world by 'selling' them for money is in 99.9% of cases indistinguishable from selling a security. At the heart of every token/crypto - there is this - lets call it the 'original sin' for fun cause thats kind of what it is (unless registered with SEC of course!) Yes the jurisdictional element is potentially overreach on my part........albeit the case is being brought by the US SEC against Ripple labs for securities violations in the US........and all the on-going sales of XRP are happening on foreign exchanges to 'non-US persons'. Not sure the judge need concern himself too much beyond this point and in some respects his ruling doesn't. He does not see Ripple marketing XRP for sale and making promises, creating profit expectations to make the sales of these tokens....this fails the howey test. The point is interesting and will be tested in the courts later and was not part of this case.........but Ripple Labs is not out there marketing/selling XRP to people today...absolutley...this is where the SEC didn't secure the 'win' so to speak.......because Ripple Labs was deemed not to be actively engaged in on-going securities sales/fraud.......what the judge didnt opine on because the foreign exchanges arent a target of this case.....is that its very likely that the securities law violations happening with XRP today are being done by the exchanges/brokers themselves......so while Ripple Labs>XRP fails Howey today.......Exchanges selling XRP are where the Howey violations are occurring contemporaneously. Not part of this case obviously. This is SEC vs. Ripple......and the judge has ruled on that basis. Problem for Coinbase out of this case is two fold: (1) ICO/ITO's are just clearly securities offerings.....and thats been tested enough now...new supply of US ICO's/ITO's is toast. Everybody knows now...via Ripple and many others....that your selling securities when your selling newly minted tokens out of your bedroom and into the big bad world. (2) This case potentially allows programmatic token structures to allow the token issuer like Ripple Labs (post-initial token offering) to sidestep Howey....but in doing so......the exchange/broker offering for sale the token now becomes liable for securities fraud....as the investment contract (token sale) between the exchange and client is where the 3rd leg of howey gets satisfied. Again Coinbase is in trouble here albeit the judge in this case wasnt asked by the SEC to judge whether the foreign exchanges were committing securities fraud.....the SEC asked the judge to rule on wether Ripple Labs is committing on-going securities fraud via programmatic selling/creation of XRP. He ruled they werent, lets see what appeals say as I question this, but in my view then if this case were to stand as final law....it becomes clear that the exchanges selling XRP are the ones that would satisfy the 3rd leg of howey test. In that exchanges/brokers (same thing in crypto) by marketing/selling their services and in the selling of tokens are the ones engaged in securities fraud. In the future you could see the SEC deciding to take a two pronged approach to securities fraud case like this to stop the sale of an ilegal security token and bring enforcement........where to 'bring down' an unregistered security token with programmatic characteristics.....you need to bring something akin to a conspiracy case where you name both the token issuer and the exchanges now selling the token as co-defendants. This is how SEC Ripple/exchange if this judgement stood as a precedent moving forward would be tackled. Their efforts combined (issuer + exchange/broker) would constitute an on-going unregistered securities offering. My early two cents.

I'm not saying it @TwoCitiesCapital I'm helping you to understand what the judge is telling the SEC and Ripple based on the law and the facts of this particular case. Folks are running away with themselves on this ruling with only passing understanding of what the judge has said. I know 'ConTelegraph' is running with the headline "XRP not a security"....but its a misinterpretation of what the judge ruled. Simply: (1) He ruled XRP was an investment contract at inception and at the moment it was sold to institutional investors for $$$$, it doesnt matter who it was sold to....at the time it was being sold it was an ilegal security because a US entity sold it and US entity bought and the thing being sold met the Howey test. It just so happened that in this case the XRP token offering first passed through the hands of institutions i.e. Ripple minted tokens and sent them first to institutions for $$$$....not people for $$$$$.... It helps solidify the concept, if it were even needed, that basically ALL token offerings begin life as ilegal securities. (2) Ripple labs TODAY is not guilty of on-going securities fraud due to 'jurisdictional issues' as XRP is being sold on secondary foreign exchanges outside the jurisdiction of the SEC and not to 'anyone' in the USA. Therefore in this case which is the SEC vs. Ripple Labs......Ripple labs cant be found guilty of on-going US securities law violations because no US securities are being currently sold by them to US persons......all the selling is being done by exchanges in foreign countries to foreign people....and the SEC has no jurisdiction there. Note XRP is not available on Coinbase for example. Heads up.....in terms of your $COIN position the second point is the most salient in terms of future value there........the XRP not a security headline.......exists only because XRP is not available on any US domiciled exchanges....i.e. todays rulling is not helpful in terms of $COIN's litigation problems......Coinbase's majority business model is selling ilegal securities from a US domiciled entity to US based persons.

It's not the identity of the buyer that changes whether its a security.....back to my earlier posts actually.....its the identity/intentions and representations (promises) made by the SELLER of THING that determines whether that THING is an investment contract or not. Ripple labs in the selling of XRP to these institutions.......was involved in an illegal security offering as it met the Howey test rule.......the implications are that pretty much every tokenomics project at inception, once it leaves the bedroom to sell a token to anybody....is engaged in a effectively a public offering of a security or investment contract. This is just another knife in the sh!tcoin business model. This is huge but the crypto pump machine wants to take a small technical ruling to "da moon".....its a technical point but everybody is missing it. What the judge failed to class as a security offering by Ripple labs........is the current contemporaneous XRP token, today, being sold to retail..............but it's actually a legal abstraction that folks are missing......see Ripple labs isn't selling XRP right now to the public, right? XRP trades on foreign crypto exchanges...ripple labs the target of this SEC case no longer is selling XRP to anybody!..........remember it sold XRP to institutions back in the day!......it's been castigated for that in this ruling and effectively found guilty of illegal security sales.......foreign crypto exchanges and brokers overseas today are the ones SELLING XRP to the public.....and as per this ruling if the SEC brought an enforcement action against THEM.......they are the ones that would be found guilty of selling an illegal security now.....and Ripple labs has been found innocent today of that crime....cause it isnt commiting an investment contract crime/scam with XRP.....somebody else is. ** Other side note.........as many know here know.......the classic sh!tcoin move.......especially for layer two projects....is you start a company to sell your sh!tcoin that is the next ethereum.....you sell the token to whoever will take it from you and raise a shit load of $$$$$ of it in an intial token offering........now you pull the Ripple move......and I seen it a bunch of time with others.......post initial token offering/sale once the money is resting in your account......you effectively create a few adjacent but unconnected companies.......you create (1) a Swiss based charity foundation....it kind of acts like a PR firm and you seed it with promotional pump money...maybe even some market making (faking) duties...it does the press and PR for the "community" (2) like Ripple labs....you also setup a 'use case' company that was kind of the story you sold investors originally to take the token....lets call it the 'killer app' company that help sell the initial token blockchain sale and of course uses the token you created as "gas" in whatever the product/solution is (3) you setup a development/consulting company.....now the 'project' is a DAO....it still really needs developers to keep the whole thing kind of working....nothing is autonomous.....software tech requires coders to fix bugs etc.....so this company is nominally a consulting company.....but really its your original companies (the one that did the intial token offering) tech development/department team...under a different LLC working on kind of 'open source' token tech....but its really your tech and nobody else is really working on it....cause you own a shit load of tokens still....its your technology.....your just claiming its not yours anymore cause there's some voting/consensus/community mechanism thats required to push changes. I'll give crypto some dues......the inventiveness of human beings when presented with an oppurtunity to make a shit load of money is a sight to behold.......I just wish that same inventness/IQ in crypto was channelled into something useful as opposed to endless ponzi schemes (not everything in crypto is a ponzi some are genuine attempts at innovation.....but the level of ponzi-ism is off the charts in the space).

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/nato-papering-over-cracks-zelenskiy-153040460.html "Crucially, it was the US and Germany that insisted on dialing back the commitment to Ukraine joining the alliance. Earlier drafts of the communique offered a clearer pathway to Ukraine eventually joining, but Biden and Chancellor Olaf Scholz were wary of going too far." Nice to see common sense from the US/Germany........if they were confused about Russian red lines before the Feb 22 invasion it might be understandable.......if you are confused now your an idiot........strategic ambiguity is the correct posture now on Ukrainian NATO membership.......and as Zelensky's early peace deal proposal from last year shows he knows, they know and we all know that any potential deal that might bring stability back to Ukraine such that it has a prosperous future and it isnt a failed state, involves them surrendering any NATO membership aspirations forever.....end of story. It's an uncomfortable truth......but a reality.......this war completely and utterly destabilizes Ukraine.....its not helpful to the Russian economy either....but the asymmetry in economic damage alone is stark.....then take the population & war machine asymmetry between the two its just not smart to continue with this conflict in its current form. The reality of the situation is captured in the below: We like to talk about the Russian economy "reeling" from the sanctions regime......your GDP contracting by 2.5% is a kind of a medium size recession........GDP contracting by 30% as it has in Ukraine is a different story. As I keep saying I hope Ukraine has some major victories in their counter offensive (good news on this front seem scarce right now) but they really do need to get around a negotiating table soon and ekk out the best pragmatic deal they can..........being a hero is fun for a while......but the reality & enormity of going toe to toe with Russia (even with the West's support) is becoming clear......Jake Sullivan said the quiet bit out loud a couple of months ago........Ukraine needs to put some kind of workable peace solution on the table by year end......the realpolitik of this is as follows.......there is still enormous goodwill towards Ukraine & Zelensky right now.....but as the recent "ungratefulness" chatter shows coming out of NATO summit......goodwill is a fickle friend and as the Ukraine war moves from the headlines to page 3,4, 5 it dissipates......Zelensky needs to think about rebuilding Ukraine......and right now the goodwill and energy that still exists......can be channelled into securing more consumable artillery that will get destroyed advancing Ukrainian front lines what 50 metres?.......or it can be channelled into securing billions upon billions of development aid from the West to rebuild his economy and society.

Yep made some serious $$$ back in the day in this name.........ESRT works.......cause it's not really office at all.......in all practicality it should trade more with United airlines and marriott than CRE given so much of the intrinsic value is a indestructible tourist attraction in Midtown Manhattan

Given office & NYC are interwoven the below might be interesting:

Yeah agree - i think Germany's time has come.......time to leave its ugly past behind.........nobody in the German administration should feel personal shame or embarrassment for the past.....there should be a collective remembrance of the dangers of totalitarianism or dictatorships......but it shouldn't cloud the fact that Germany to my points above (along with France) need to develop an independent military muscle which befits their size and that can be a counterweight to the US's strategic aims in both Europe and in Asia......as U2/bono says.....the US and Europe....can be....ONE, but not the same. Macron, for all his failings domestically in France, has an excellent read and instinct on international relations.........you can see his recent trip to China recently......as an independent flexing of France/the EU's strategic economic muscle.......what its missing currently a quirk of history........is a German military machine commensurate with its economic machine. In this regard Germany is indeed finally stepping up and France will be sure to follow. Its a good thing......I think a multipolar world dominated by the USA and China but with a resurgent military EU moderating the excesses of each might be how we avoid WW3 in my lifetime.

Reminds me of this: I’m sorry it’s ultimately naive to believe such things. Nations have interests not friends. That statement is an oxymoron. And exactly what Macron is getting at in recent statements…..setting your own foreign policy is completely dependent on having your own independent robust military capability. Macron is lamenting the EU’s lack of military muscle and as such he knows that Europe will remain a price ‘taker’ of US foreign policy…..until such a time as it does have something akin to a common military capability crudely a United States of Europe Army/navy/Air Force.

Read Macron's recent statements on European or more precisely EU security and military capability and what he calls the 'strategic' independence thats required and would bring....subtext is that Europe can see the stupdity of American foreign policy in Ukraine......in the backrooms of Europe this Ukrainian conflict and the impact its had on Europe is very much viewed as another American foreign policy disaster folly......where the Ukranian people are the direct collateral damage and the European economy is too. Put simply Ukraine is Afghanistan 2.0. As I've said before idealism (democracy & freedom) is something that can get applied in other peoples neighborhoods (Vietnam/Afghanistan/Ukraine/Iraq) and it leads to disastrous consequences almost without exception. The record here is just abysmal and not a single person can argue with America's attempts at nation building overseas they are a solid F MINUS. The countries subject to US interference/help invariably get wrecked. What Macron is getting at is in his recent comments.....is a Europe that has the military wherewithal to be a counter balance to US counter productive interference that usually occurs in far flung places......but in the case of Ukraine US nation building/interference blew up in Europe's face this time precisely because Europe is too junior a partner to US military capability (but lets be clear the US likes that......the US wants a vasal state Europe.....one dependent on US energy versus Russia). Trump was dead wrong to demand more NATO spend by partners........you want your strategic military partners in a far flung region to be a little weak such that you can bully them around to do what you want. Macron is completely spot on in his recent comments.......the EU needs it own military/security capability......and to not let the US play its nation building/strategic games with enemies on the European continent again..

The separation was going quite well up until recently.....so much so that China had its belt and road initiative to desperately try to secure resources from the middle east and Africa. China certainly didnt think it was inevitable that Russia would be its energy bitch? Put it this way - its certainly possible to have Russia and China less connected at the hip than they are now. Isolating Russia economically such that its whole economic existence is tied to China is dumb beyond imagination and almost ensures China's regionally dominance in Asia over time......cause you basically handed over a BIG gas station which is Russia to China....such that naval blockade of China in the future from a energy standpoint will cease to matter because all their energy is coming over pipelines across Siberia and Mongolia.....its a disastrous outcome over time from a strategic standpoint. It just is. A crippled, wounded vasal state Russia is actually what Chinese wet dreams are made of..........its like handing over the permian basin to your greatest enemy......its so dumb it beggars belief. Honestly there's no good way to spin it.

Problem remains SuperCore and the chart below the first chart: However I'm not one to ignore facts - and SuperCore showed a slight encouraging but way too early to celebrate moderation. I hope it continues. I think as everyone knows here inflation disgusts me The problem remains @Gregmal that while we should celebrate headline inflation coming down....celebrating the rolling off of transitory covid supply chain inflation is no victory at all.....its like trying to take credit for the sun coming up every morning.....the non-transitory element of inflation (made in america inflation/supercore) when it comes and perhaps this is the beginning of it starting to come down is actually a manifestation of underlying domestic economic weakness.......planned economic weakness by the Fed. As i've said in earlier posts......with the thesis delayed........the early stages of inflationary cycles are good for corporates (price pushing)......the fight & progress against inflation is disastrous for them.... ....I hope this MoM progress on SuperCore continues (I'm all for it for reasons you know) but if its real and sustained you will see real and sustained headwinds on corporate earnings (we already have in kind of muted but less dramatic way (minus ~12% real drop in SPY earnings is not a nothing burger already).....disinflation, margin compression, earnings weakness & rising unemployment are sisters that travel together. Disinflation is to celebrated......I despise inflation........to think its a boom for stocks broadly.....is a rookie mistake......true domestic disinflation foreshadows, foretells and correlates with broad economic weakness.....disinflation is economic weakness & economic weakness is not good for earnings. When true sustained & relentless real progress on supercore comes......SPY/QQQ won't be rallying in response.....it will be squealing in pain....perhaps this is the start. Let's see.

One quibble with your list - the above is a complete and utter DISASTER for US foreign policy over the long pull for the only strategic competition that truly MATTERS this century - USA vs China Pairing up Russia so completely - a resource and energy rich country to your greatest rival who's achilles heel is their lack of energy & resources...does that sound like a good outcome?....it will prove to be a deep deep strategic blunder for US foreign policy.......separating Russia from China should have been aim of the game....not driving Russia into the arms of China.

Yep great list @Viking....if your hinting that this is a great outcome for the US from a global strategic competition point of view........I kind of agree with wholeheartedly....to it I would add making the EU energy dependent on the USA for LNG over time too ensuring their continued role as a client state of the US.........where we differ of course........is that a whole Country (Ukraine) has been be tossed on the fire to achieve your list of US 'wins' & where I've argued that this conflict was avoidable with just tiny bit more accommodation to Russia's security concerns*..... the above US strategic aims in the region (Russia containment/outright hostility).......has now come at cost of ten of thousands of Ukrainian and Russian young men dead............and millions upon millions of Ukrainian refugee families strewn across Europe. * at its core however if you believe Putin the imperialist story you believe this conflict was unavoidable......if unavoidable of course you think of only the good things that have come out of it from a US strategic point of view and that's understandable....its more uncomfortable to do what I've done.......which is to ask was their a third way where the West could have handled the Ukraine portfolio with a degree more humility & caution to the complexity of a small country (Ukraine) neighbouring a large powerful country like Russia. The problem with the zealots in the State Department in every US nation building exercise I've ever studied that's ended exactly like the situation we have in Ukraine....is a complete lack of understanding of history and complete inability once words like 'freedom' 'democracy' 'liberty' are thrown around in regards to a nation.... to come to a pragmatic US foreign policy strategy that might achieve both US security aims in a region but also optimize to what practically work out best for the people of that nation.

Not sure what that’s got to do with anything….what you reference is the early musing (brain farts) of Putin who was yet to be President of Russia….and was making come on eyes at the west…..that was about 21yrs ago! Since at least 2006 Putin has been crystal clear that Ukranian neutrality was a redline security issue for Russia akin to the Monroe Doctrine that the US has made crystal clear for about a 100yrs. What’s come out in recent past via the Biden interview above, some interviews/talks Boris Johnson has done collecting speaking fees and Macron has alliuded too…..Putin since 2008 has at every bilateral engagement with Western leaders and with increasing frequency/urgency over time made Ukranian neutrality non-membership of NATO clear as a Russia redline…..I don’t agree with a policy of appeasement with Russia…..their maneuvers and strategic plays around the globe should be met with toe to toe by the West….in regard to Ukraine there was a serious failure of judgement on the part of the US and it’s allies….a failure to fully identify Ukraine’s strategic importance to Russia….it’s this failure which is the sin oft repeated by US diplomacy overseas….(1) the idea that nation building is even possible (Ukraine/Afghanistan/Iraq) & (2) failing to assess your opponents red lines (Russia/Ukraine) and failure to identify your opponents resolve and staying power is ultimately much higher than yours (Afghanistan/Iraq/Ukraine/Vietnam+++++++).

Yep there's just a super solid bid under certain locations.......in stock market parlance......these are low beta locations.......and the cap rates (or multiples) folks pay reflect exactly that.

Anecdotally as somebody who lives in NYC and knows folks in the real estate game so I ask every now and again what's going on in 7% mortgage land.....to transactions and prices....the answer I get back pretty much...... is there is so much intergenerational wealth in the Northeast, which allows enough prospective purchasers to skip over the problems that say 7%+ mortgage rates would provide to a more normal middle America population pool that NYC property is barely skipping a beat. The Bank of Mam & Dad GSIBs wouldn't like to see DTI's or large deposit requirements mess up the next generations acquisition of an NYC pad. Twin that with low inventory (the 3% 30yr fixed rate crowd) and deals still are getting done at flat-ish prices versus 21/22.

Back to earlier questions of NATO encroachment as contributory factor to Russia's decision to invade Ukraine check out this recent interview with Biden from the weekend. Where Biden 1m28secs into the interview recounts how his first meeting with Putin as president two years ago in Geneva (June 2021) had at its core a demand from Russia/Putin that Ukraine not be allowed to join NATO....Biden it seems in that meeting reiterated the NATO trope which is that it has an 'open door' policy and would not rule out Ukraine joining. This from a President who's son was on the board of Ukranian gas company......and where the former president had called up the Ukranian president to have a political rival investigated. As the old ad used to say - Heineken doesn't do US puppet regimes....but if they did 2020/2021 Ukraine sure would be a one of the best in the world. Part of your intelligence apparatus job is to figure out your opponents red line issues........the foreign policy establishments failure in Washington to identify and classify Ukraine correctly as a red line issue for Russia.....to correctly identify a point of escalation that would have negative & sub-optimal consequences...is a great failing of the modern foreign relations class inside the beltway........ Putin is to blame too of course.....he invaded......but did it really advance the Ukrainian nations interest to encourage them and support them to pivot so completely to the West....there's literally 1000's of young men in trenches paying for that hubris and its turned out to be in nobody's interest not least the Ukrainians. Sometimes in international relations......countries say what they mean and mean what they say......no 4D chess or gamesmanship involved.....Putin the expansionary imperialist remains one of the great myths in our culture.......it's really Putin the insecure existentialist which rings truest when one looks at the pattern of events and ignores the stories.....and meetings recounted by Biden such as this as recently as June 2021 + many other examples of Putin at every juncture demanding Ukrainian neutrality point to that. As I've pointed out many times before as matter of quantitative fact rather than a qualitative theory (which can always be argued).... 185,000 invading troops is the not the army of a wannabe imperialist....for an imperialist this would simply be a division of ay invading army one of 20 or 30 perhaps for an invasion plan that covered a territory as vast as Ukranians.

Ukraine's 'fast path' to NATO membership......feels a little like kabuki theatre.........its been 'given' to Ukraine by NATO members such that they can give it away in peace talks with Russia (potentially later this year)......not sure of the accuracy of reports but certainly the very early sketches of a peace deal Zelensky offered to Russia at the outset of the conflict had NATO neutrality as its tent pole feature.