Xerxes

@Viking Wouldn't an earning multiple be more appropriate for a business that does not have "lumpy" returns. And Fairfax's lumpy returns at that, happen to have a wide variety of "quality". Perhaps in a distant future it will be like that, but for now its valuation will remain anchored based on sum of the parts (i.e. BV). What do you think ?

The reality is Prem is not sharing the canvas he has in mind. It all makes sense to him and his team, I am sure, but no narrative is being communicated to the shareholder base. At a certain price you get the deep value guys in, that is all fine and well. But at a certain point to bring the long term buy-and-hold you need to build and clearly communicate a narrative. even in the shareholder letters you are being dragged into the rabbit hole of some back story, which while fine and educational does not tell the would be buy-and-hold crowd where that canvas is going. Contrast that to Markel simplicity when it comes to communication to shareholders. For clarity we are not talking the merit of one capital allocator to another. But the effectiveness of their communication. That being said, looks like Greg is jumping in with both feet !!! (Or soon)

One of my all time interesting spy story is the tale of Reilly. The TV shows was filmed in the early 1980s and covers the era around Russian revolution (before and after) and great power rivalry. really story and a fascinating character. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reilly,_Ace_of_Spies

@Parsad hahha I don’t own ETFs or mutual funds. Haven’t bought any mutual fund in the 5+ years. Never owned any ETF if I remember correctly. I own only common stocks. And some insignificant crypto through WealthSimple

Does the fact that he is adding to Apple, an already large position, is an indication that he is implicitly thinking that the 10-year T-bonds have peaked.

I think secretly Prem Watsa likes the fact that FFH is an orphan stock. It keeps it undervalued while letting him complete his canvas. If he was all gung-ho about closing the gap, he would be cleaving off the parts he didnt like faster while communicating a clear narrative to the shareholder base and would be . His narrative has been in the past 5 years: "we made mistakes, we will re-earn your trust, stock is cheap" so pleading patience, while continuing empire building. I am ok with that, as the name is only one component of my portfolio and offers a very powerfull source of diversification of thoughts. He is my Anti-ARK and I like that,

That is very far-fetched Viking. Fairfax's equity portfolio has two buckets: (1) the big longs and (2) the rest of portfolio The (2) portion broadly follows the market, are trading positions and are really not Prem specific. I dont think he even manages those. The bulk of weight is in the (1) bucket, and those are #neversell like deep value or quasi deep value names. I am personally am in Fairfax for its (1), and like it the way it is, and could not care less about (2).

Isn't interesting that Prem Watsa so far that we know did not use the 2022 bear market to buy the dip on what everyone defines as quality here [big tech and other well known names] { (13F are coming soon), I dont expect needle moving changes on those publically traded names that don't have that much weighing to beging with. He stuck to the name he knows best. Fine, I guess, since that is the purpose of being invested in him as a "mind-diversifier".

Does this go to the sell thread

Very likely if Sokol is the lead on this. Prem never suggested that FFH should get in on this directly. Literally all of his comments in the past several years had been what a great asset this is for FFH to own. So if this is Sokol led venture, than not sure what Prem is doing wrong.

the man nailed it !

Those tensions have been there forever, but now more highlighted by Western media. on a different note, this could be very interesting. From the producer of Crown.

I guess we will have more answer in the coming days, but we should not assume that FFH is the one that is leading this initiative. Maybe it is really Sokol, who is after all the champion and mastermind of the Atlas model. The vertical integration with ONE is interesting as outlined by Viking. If FFH is not adding to their stake, than the value for them is really private ownership vs. Public. And whatever advantage ONE brings in. And they are just rolling over with Sokol. but also wouldn’t Atlas lose its neutrality like ARM would have had it gone with its now cancelled merger with NVidia.

From Barron’s, on the monthly data within Q2, for lazy folks like me:

I agree, And hopefully FFH stock price dipping because of the purchase (if it happens) provides additional opportunities.

I am not comparing them just saying with the level of concentration they had why waste Atlas resources for a buyback, which most likely me as a minority would not have tendered into the buybacks anyways. Also it is not like Atlas had a Stelco like cash position vs its size. A takeover makes sense (given their control) and also allows them to re-jig their position sizing. We don’t know if the consortium members are pro-rataing their position size or doing something differently. A buyback would have equally increased their respective positions … but to what end. They already have control. I realize I am not explaining well.

For what is worth there a lot of resources and references in the 50X website. need to click on each of the episodes https://www.50xpodcast.com/episodes/will-thorndike-the-power-of-long-holding-periods/

No, I mean FFH won’t tender for Stelco. but at a certain point (not immediately), once Stelco vacuumed up what they could through the tender off, there would be privatization bid from a consortium including the CEO, his private equity and Fairfax.

Stelco is slightly up above its bid issue of $35. Trading now at $36.81. is that the market connecting Atlas-FFH-Stelco !!

Part of the sting maybe that there is no control premium either, since they already have control ! As a minority, an Atlas buyback would have been preferable, but the big shareholders already have control so the natural next step is buy the whole thing. and I agree with @bearprowler6that samething will happen with Stelco. But Stelco was one step behind Atlas in term relative concentration of major shareholders. So first the many small and big tender offers and then the remaining major shareholders will privatized it.

Funding secured at $420 USD

Damn Buffett is buying the dip ! “Ocean Network Express Holdings, Ltd. is a Japanese container transportation and shipping company jointly owned by the Japanese shipping Lines Nippon Yusen Kaisha, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, and K Line. Wiki“

just the fact that Dara, a Barry Diller protege, and 10-year veteran of Expedia is in charge that is a +ve. they are even talking about capital return back in Q1 investor day.

Received my +900 page copy of Peter the Great. The objective would be to be wiser 900 pages later.

Absolutely inverse is also truth. You put the maximum allowed ($80k or whatever that is). You make a bad investment that reduces the $80k to say $5K. you sell at a loss and withdraw the $5k from TFSA. by doing so you have “reduce” your TFSA capacity down to only $5K. Permanent damage to TFSA.