Xerxes

Pretty good analysis. If it was indeed the Kremlin, might have made more sense to do it on new line from Poland. There hasn’t been any posturing yet in the Baltics between the West and the Kremlin and they could have scored and gotten away.

A nice steak + few drinks cost me $145 (1 person) in Montreal in a steakhouse with friends. tax/tip included. The streak wasnt that good. Next time, i ll go back to TheKeg

This is really good episode with Jeff Currie, who belives (maybe not suprising) that the situation in Europe is like in the U.S. 20 years ago or so with NG prices at an all time high. Meaning that with the industrial demand collapsing, the rally is very much overblown (in Europe). Really enjoyed his thought on the 10-12 year supercycles. From in the late 60s from Johnson era through the 70s, another from ascenation of China in WTO, in the early 2000 that went through 2014-15 and a third one we are now. He is the only that i heard that talks about the volumertic aspect of commodities as oppose to price-dollar aspect of financial assets (based on expectations). And that the former is really driven by policymaker impacting low-middle class. He also makes the point that Volker interest rate hike really worked only because it came on the back of large investment made through the 1970s super-cycle. Said differently, raising interest rate does not create "excess commodity supply" out of thin air. It just takes the symptoms away. Episode #445: Jeff Currie, Goldman Sachs – Why ESG May Make This Commodity Supercycle Different From Past Cycles - Meb Faber Research - Stock Market and Investing Blog

The last few years, the uncertainty seem to really peak (and with it share price bottom), few days before the Q3 earning call.

But we had no problem kicking them off UN 5 decades ago as Nixon and Kissinger dined and wined with Mao, who had under his belt by then had tens of million of chinese deaths. I get that it makes sense to be close to Taiwan now. But passing this as some moral thing, there I disgree. We didnt join forces with Stalin to defeat Hitler because of idealogical disagreement. If Stalin and his horde were based in what is called today as Germany, and if Hitler and his Nazi legions were located in what is now Russia, we would be allying with Hitler to crush Stalin. It is just a matter of who was the closest threat to the Western civilization. And in that alternate scenario, in this picture it would be Adolf Hitler sitting alongside Churchill and FDR. And not Stalin.

^^^ Activision's Call of Duty franchise is going to make a killing if they play their cards right with this conflict ... and dont screw it up. There would be a massive consumer demand, everyone would want to play the Ukrainians, there is enough real combat going from partisan stuff, tank-poping javelines, stingers, artillery duels etc., drone war, sabotage behind the lines etc. The plate is set for Activision, if they can ensure not to screw it up. They got the demand, the known franchise, and the money

I cannot wait to get my hands on a good book few years from now on this topic. Probably there will be a dozens of them, 3/4 of them just re-capping publically available information, trying to make quick buck.

That is what i said: The Vietcong was larlgey de-fanged (i.e. wiped out). In fact so badly that the regular North Vietnamese army had to take the slack. But it remains a strategic defeat because of the psychological blow it delivered back home to the domestic audiance, seeing the Vietcong just coming out of every hole in the capital itself. You and others are sandboxing the discussion around military engagement and kill ratio. I see things more holistically. The political and miltary side come in hand in hand. Was the battle of Jutland a military victory for Germany, because it sank more warships than the British did. No. Royal Navy is the one that achieved a strategic victory, because at the end the Kriegsmarine (or whatever it was called in the first war) remained well bottled in the Baltic sea ... and very much ineffective. So much capital was spend by the Kaiser and his Grand Admiral to build this massive navy with surface ship, second only to Royal Navy (I think), yet it was "stuck". Was the battle of Borodino, a strategic victory for the House of Bonaporte. No. While he achieved some sort of tactical success and send the Russian fleeing, the outcome of the battle meant he could not hold Moscow and his nemsis remained largely intact. Etc. Etc

When in doubt always ask the Prussians: “War therefore is an act of violence intended to compel our opponent to fulfill our will.” - Carol von Clausewitz If Vietnam was a military success but a political failure than using the same logic, the 1991 Gulf War was also a military success (which it was) but a political failure (which it was not) because Bush failed to go all the way to Baghdad !!! something doesnt add up. I think the reality is that in any war as it lengthens out, there is increasingly blurry line between what was/were objectives vs. accomplishment. Making the enemy "not want to fight anymore" equals victory in my book. If Russia drops a nuke and kills off 500K-1M people, and than calls for peace and return pre-Feb border, can we make the statement that "It was a political defeat and a case where a limited engagement turned out in an open ended one, that the Kremlin didn't want to fight any more but still had a good 10-20x kill rate, therefore not a miltiary failure but a political one as they lost the will to fight"

Nope. The "Tet" offensive was a strategic defeat for the United States (the image of Viet Congs poping out in the capital Saigon out of nowhere was too much bear for the Johnson and the population at large). Following the Tet offensive in '68, the Viet Cong as fighting force was largely de-fanged and the North Vietnamese regular army took up the burden of war. You are gauging victory vs. defeat with number of death as a KPI. If Jonhson administration failed in their objectives than they lost the war. It matters not to classify at political or military defeat.

We were given the book to read in College I think (or maybe it was high school) stupid me I never read it !!!

Watched Game of Thrones latest epsidoe. I was/am a huge fan. But I feel a sense of fatigue as the storyline draggggs on. Actually having a blast watching Rings of Power compared to House of Dragons.

Meet the new intelligent officer of the Red Army Edward Snowden granted Russian citizenship - BBC News

Thanks for the reponse. Putin is no Peter the Great though, despite what he says. The latter pulled Russia out of medievalism and opened it to the West and pulled forward kicking and screaming. The Ottoman empire lasted for 800 years (pretty long if you ask me) if I were to go to its origin of House of Osman. It was in fact suppose to end much sooner than it did was it not for the rivalery between Western powers and Russia that perserve it not create a vaccum of power for Russia to step in. Ottomans are actually a good analogy to Russia as they sat as overlords over their dominions with no notion of such thing as "Turkey proper". The Turkish nationhood came after. The Austro-Hungarian empire is not a good example. That multi-facet empire was not going to have a long life anyways. It died soon after childbirth. The Habsburg did though last for a very long time, just not in their last incarnation.

You should not. I dont think anyone here agrees with those narratives, but it does not change the fact that there is a Kremlin point of view in all this. Perhaps, half false, half correct, but it is there.

And @Viking you and others talk about self-determination and why there is a need for an empire in the 21st centuary. And i would agree with you as Westerner. But the world does not moves as fast as the West thinks it ought to or it should to. Just because the Western world is done squeezing its imperial subjects in Africa and Asia with their shiny imperial boots rubbing on their subject' necks does not mean that other power have the same timeline. What if you were a Mughul aristocrat or a merchant living in India few hundred years ago enjoying the good life, discussing investment thesis on Dutch East India company on message boards, you may have objected the Dutch and the British slowly but surely eroding and strangling the living light out of Mughul Empire. From your perspective, why is this happening ???

The largest country in the world does not need more land. And actually yes it is complicated. What Russia needed was an empire and its buffer-states/protectorates to defend itself against military, economical and ideological threats as seen from the Moscow/St-Petersburg (with the rare exception of Peter the Great who opened toward West, most of their leaders looked inward). Going back to days of Charles XII, Napoleon, Hitler & now NATO, the West always moved eastward. I bet you never seen Charles XII, Napoleon, Hitler & NATO in the same sentence. Russians do. Outrageous isn't ? Westereners may not understand that concept (yes yes yes NATO never threaten etc etc.) but that is because it is being seen from a Western centric point of view. That being said, what Putin specifically needed, even more than empire, was to destroy the what-could-have-been scenario as Ukraine became more and more Westernized & modernized while its own society degraded and stagnated. Russia is not turning the clock, because there is no clock for Russia to turn back. Just because we may have a clock in the West does not mean that they do as well. What happened in the 1990s was merely a blip, just like the October Revolution in 1917 was a blip, before its resurrgence under a different avatar: Soviet Union. This documenatry is from pre-invasion, pre-Covid era. Great documentary on Russia's imperial past. The host is the same BBC gentleman that reports from Moscow today on the current conflict. I would highly recommend for folks to read up on Russian history. Actual books. No blogs. No 5 min YouTube. Do not outsource.

Very well said. @changegonnacome +20 million Soviets i would argue ... not just Russians

There is a low chance of a coup. There is more power concentrated today in the Kremlin than it has ever been.

The West should not give in to nuclear blackmail. Period. That said with Kiev in the driving seat, they should be aware that there is a non-zero (however small) chance of a mushroom cloud, either as a test or an actual tactical attack, or a conventional attack on a nuclear reactor etc. all it takes is a hypersonic missile. A major problem that Russia has, there is a huge gap in terms of capabilities between its antiquated/used-up conventional weaponry and its world-ending arsenals. So going from one to another is a big leap on the escalation ladder.

@Dinar Back in Feb-March, I argued for exit ramp, fortunately for Kiev (and unfortunately for the Kremlin) the conflict unfolded in a way that exit ramp is looking more and more remote. The sinking of the flagship in the Black Sea didn’t help either. We have for all intent and purposes linked ourselves as the “weapon supplier of last resort”. Kiev pretty much owns the narrative.

If you get a chance take a read at the Appendix of the LOTR called (I think) “Durin’s Folk”. It is an interesting read on one of the most famous of the dwarf families, elements of which were used for Peter Jackson’ Hobbit’s Trilogy.

it is a beautiful show indeed. Everything coming along nicely. Just finished the latest episode. On Sauron, I would say no more and I don’t want to spoil it, as other have spoiled it for me. And don’t look online for the answer either. The Fell Elf character know as “Lord Father”, I think might be the Mouth of Sauron. My wild guess.