Xerxes

Disagree He will have no qualms in using a low yield tactical nuke if when he feels situation warrants it in his war in a non-NATO country. It is no different than a massive bomb compacted in a single delivery mechanism from a military point of view. That being said, there are political consequence as a multi-decade taboo would be broken and a first. but those consequences will not be a NATO direct assault (conventional or nuclear) on Russia. As that is the road to apocalypse. Even in a theoretical total NATO success and a decapitated nuked Moscow, the “Dead Hand” automated system (read about it) will take take care of the rest of the planet and turn it into a parking lot, on behalf of now dead Putin … and solve our inflation problem while at it. jeremi Gratham will also finally be right

The enemy gets a vote too Russia may use their low-yield tactical nuke against the regular Ukrainain military forces in the West of Donbas region, as they (Russian) regoup their own force. Clearly all indication is that (from what we see in the Media) that they are preparing for an offensive in the eastern side of the country, what if this just one big trap to bring in as many Ukrianian military forces as they can and then ... Sadly, as Ukraine keeps scoring against Russia, we are dangerously getting close to the level where Russia may decide to use tactical nuke (tabooed be damned), as its military doctrine allows it to use as a first-use on battlefield PS: lastly reading some of the commentaries by Zelensky in the days and week, I think it is clear that he finally understands that the West will fight the Russians to the last Ukrainians. So he says atleast give us all the weapons that we need if we are the one doing the fighting and dying

some speculation from Ukrainian media that : “Moskva could have been carrying two nuclear warheads designed to be fitted to its P-1000 'carrier killer' missiles”. … when it sank

2022 May Day is around the corner. Hopefully no one is going to do anything stupid just to have a worthy parade. Not the same vibe as the one in 1945, with Marshal Zhukov riding his white horse and the Polish-born Marshal Rokosovsky riding a black horse leading the parade. With Red army soldiers carrying the Nazi battle standards upside down and throwing them at Stalin’ feet. when the war started in Feb, as someone living in Canada for decades, I almost choked on my latte when I heard of de-nazification. Made no sense and sounded like a made up thing on spot. But I forgot that how steeped it must have been in Russian history, and how it might resonate.

i would have thought the inverse … that folks would be happy that they would roll those into slightly longer duration given the opportunity. The timing would never be perfect but they got to start somewhere

In the Lights Out book about GE, it was said that Jack Welch had dismissed it as joie de vivre when confronted by his folks about questionable behaviour of some GE higher ups at work

Is this a joke ? I thought Charlie Rose lost his job as part of the #metoo movement

New season of Billions is a disaster. Nothing to do with the great actor playing Prince vs. Axe. Just the story telling has down the drain big time. For instance i don’t give a damn about Wendy’ book and how it relates to anything. Sounds more like a made up arc so that she does something. And everything else looks like a fictional series of encounters where everyone is trying to show off how high IQ they are. the high point for me was Chuck making reference to President Field Marshal Paul von Hindenburg.

“Super pumped” took inspiration from the book of the same title from NY Times journalist. Fairly in line with the book. Then the question would be how accurate was the book. I am “east coaster” and until late 2018-19 didn’t even know how Travis looked like in person, I imagine someone on the West Coast probably had good idea how eccentric or not he was

Dinar United is the only airline that actively involved in procurement of the supersonic commercial jets aiming for revenue-flight sometimes late in the decade but more likely early 2030s. I don’t know about their customer related KPI, but I can say that post-Covid they have been one of the most active in thinking about the future and how they want to shape it with their product offering etc. Usually that compliment goes to Delta Airlines. here is an artistic representation of that future.

I have read this book few years ago. It was an interesting read as I was following Uber drama in its latter years, with Softbank, when Dara joined in, IPO etc. The book ofcourse starts 5-6 years prior to that, so even better. There is also an HBO show on its on Crave with the samename, currently at episode 6, which is super entertaining. Super Pumped: The Battle for Uber: Isaac, Mike: 9780393652246: Books - Amazon.ca

Any military conflict that starts without clear purpose is doomed to fail. "The political object is the goal, war is the means of reaching it, and means can never be considered in isolation from their purpose." Carl Von Clausewitz.

Maybe nothing to stop them logistically on paper taking off from the Baltic states, but the same God of War that weighed in with a punishing judgement on the Ukrainian-Russian war and sided with Kiev can quickly change its mind. That balancing act that keeps everything together when one sides goes too far beyound their critical mass. General Mud/Winter sided against the force of mon empereur in 1812, sided against the Wehrmacht in 1941, and finally donned an Ukrainian uniform in 2022 sided against the Kremlin itself, but may quickly change its mind. Russian Winter - Wikipedia The Ottomans faced theirs "balancing act" in the siege of Malta and Vienna at the height of their power as they overstrech themselves. No one knew it at the time. A third siege of Vienna few decades later would have probably revealed that the emperor has no clothes. Kremlin just revealed that the emperor has no clothes. It is better for NATO not too overstrech and "mark" the limits of its power. The illusion of power is stronger than the need to show it.

Well said SD, though it would be even more interesting if the gas station had no nukes, taking out that extreme left-tail events, that might get realize in unexpected ways. Than it would be just be economics without the Mad Max post-script.

I am diligent reader of The Economist for more than 15 years. I guess I subscribe to their world view. I like the quality of their articles. As someone who is originally from middles east I found their analysis to be spot on. Extrapolating that into other regions that they cover, my assumption is that they are spot on as well I subscribe to businessweek twice only in 15 years. The second time this year and I can only one find article (if any) worth reading. I hate their visuals too. now funny enough I love Bloomberg TV, so something is amiss when it goes to paper. I used to sneak in my town’ library for Barron’ and WSJ. I like their work but with Covid paper copies are gone. I do maintain a digital Barron’ subscription.

West has no problem dealing with mass murderers (Mao, Stalin etc). Issue is when the mass murderer becomes a toxic asset, (I.e. when the lack of positive optics outweighs the very long negative tangible ledger of bad deeds.) Putin has reached that level by himself walking into it. I am afraid aside for the security establishment (which is as toxic as him) there is no power base strong enough to do a palace coup. The security establishment owns Russia, much like the Revolutionary Guards in Iran. The sanctions will only increase their power. so i am of the mind that Putin will be around still for a long while. Even if he “retires” he will be the paramount leader. The perpetual system that provides to the security establishment needs him as much he needs them. Going after oligarch and playboys was symbolic but at the end they are marginals.

As I said in my other post, few pages ago, United States would have no (ethical) problem droping 20 atomic bombs (if it had 20) on Japan until the Japanese race was fully eradicated, or unconditional surrender tendered. It is U.S. that set unconditional surrender as the basis of negotiation. Lemay had no problem setting napalms in Tokyo, burning 200,000 Japanese alive. Not that the Japanese were any better. The point is there are no saints anywhere. We will do what we think is needed and write up the narrative after. Few years later, McArthur was planning to drop 40-50 atomic bombs in Manchuria to knock out the supply lines feeding North Korea, and probably would have if he was not fired by Harry Truman. In Vietnam (a small country), they dropped more tonnage than what was dropped in Japan and Germany (or so the legend goes). ---- do you believe United States would do any of the above against the dominant non-Asian rival in the hearland of Europe. The war cry at home in WW2 to the very end was "Kill the Japs", even as the bulk of U.S. war effort was spend against Germany. That story sold better. Lemay, Westmoreland and others like them at the end of the day were instruments of death unleashed by the White House. PS: for clarity, the B-52 bombing runs were ran directly by LBJ from the White House and not controlled directly by Westmoreland himself. Nonetheless, he was the ruling “overlord” upholding a corrupt Saigon regime in the south, fighting a war for who knows what. Sounds a bit like Russia in Ukraine … which actually sadly makes more sense than U.S. in Vietnam

For clarity, I will take United States everyday over any and all alternatives. That country and its idea have done far more good than any other superpower at the peak of their prime. But I am also fair and have no problem in calling out BS when I see it (or at least try to be)

On the topic of war crimes or not. There is no point arguing. This is like shorting a good short against a rising market (public sentiment). It doesn’t pay to swim against the current. From my point of view, Putin, Rumsfeld, Cheney, Bin Salman, are cut all from the same cloth. Blood thirsty men bent on domination. The middle two are born in the U.S. so we classify them as “ambitious men” or if we want to be very extreme about them we would say “very ambitious men with great political acumen”. But never as what truly they are. no one answered my question from pages ago: are General Lemay and General Westmoreland to be considered as war criminals. If not why not ? They had one thing in common, they fought wars against Asians.

I don’t believe Biden got emotional and let loose the “Putin must go”. He is smelling blood and like any other good politician he is positioning for that eventuality … and working on this re-election campaign at the same time. the job was left to his state secretary to give the formal government position.

Message from Kim. I am here too on a different note Shoigu (Russian defense minister) had disappeared for more than 15 days, only to re-appear briefly yesterday, and then today the word is that he had an heart attack. I would too if my armies (my raison d’être) was melting around me