Xerxes

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/iran/#article/part1 From 2013 and still relevant today The theft of century

I think the Yom Kippur number needs to put in perspective of the then total aggregate global supply, this was the seven sister era, where a lot of global production came from there.

Good one on the Gulf https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/smartermarkets/id1541404399?i=1000753773934

I would recommend this episode specifically on the war. It is boring analysis work, doesn’t have the chest thumping with video / explosion stuff that most people like here to get high on. But I am posting anyways, because I think the guest presents the regime calculus correctly. On another news looks like Mojteda is the new leader. The guest in this podcast sort of explains, (recorded days before) Mojtada was never a serious contender. Severely lacking religious credentials, and the fact that he was the son were all pushbacks. But given that his family was blow up … in a weird way has increased his stock. And there we are … Mojtada’ is the IRGC man on the throne. The power relationship is now reversed. He may be the titular leader, but it is IRGC in control. One more betrayal : We were suppose to be done with hereditary monarchies in 1979 …

Pretty good documentary on the rise of Shamkhani from a revolutionary to an oil trading oligarch I remember, I think it was last year, The Economist had an investigative piece on his son who is at the centre of trading business extending far in the Russian trade.

On the letter he says no cash dividend as long as “better opportunity” etc … than share buyback comes in a week later. last I checked buybacks are also funded from the same “well of T-bill” where cash dividend funding comes from ——- on a different note, the more intriguing part of the letter was the grouping of US-based Forever4 in the letter that included Moody’, but not larger market cap name alongside there Forever5 in Japan.

The Assembly of Experts may have had its last meeting …

I agree on the first paragraph. The monarchy is unknown to most youngsters. That said it is not binary either. Not wanting the Islamic Republic doesn’t mean they must want the Shah, or vice versa. The struggle for democracy in Iran is one of the oldest in Western Asia going back to 1905. I think there are many in between possibilities. But that is for later on. One of the most interesting thing about the protest in January was that you had representation from large segment of society, including the conservative from cities like Isfahan. Being a conservative doesn’t mean that they are regime supporter. People can be conservative and be against regime, and people can be liberal (and even pro-Shah) and be against how foreigners are invading their homeland.

I always thought that Khomeini being half Indian was a payback for Nader Shah conquest of Delhi and its subsequent looting.

subtly: clerical rule refers to the regime itself. clerical establishment refers to one of the power centers. Other being IRGC, the merchant etc. Clerical establishment was there before 1979. Khamenei role was to balance the needs of different stakeholders and build consensus. Stubborn man he was but he knew how to rule through division.

I personally think Kharg shouldn’t be touched. It is national asset and not IRGC asset. The war is waged against the regime and not the people. It would be counter productive to hit a major national asset, in my view, the better threat is the personal asset and P&L of IRGC leadership. Like you stated IRGC is commercial-military-industrial complex with many stakeholders. Interesting thing about IRGC: right after the Iran-Iraq War, the government in Tehran has no more cash flow to sustain two different militaries. So Rafsanjani gave the mandate to IRGC to become a self funding organization to avoid dismantling. So they got into business and over the decades they got their hands in everything. To Rafsanjani’ deepest regret years later as he lost power to the Khameni-IRGC power center. But the real booster of IRGC was ironically the economic sanctions that Washington imposed. That minted millionaires and billionaires as they took control of the export-import.

I think you meant the Revolutionary Guard …. and not the republican guard, which don’t exist in Iran. By definition the Revolutionary Guard are the guardians of the revolution. Any coup from IRGC will be to take power from the clerical establishment, and transfer that power to itself : the IRGC … not to the Monarchy, which doesn’t really exist as a power center. The better statement would be to call for the national army (which is an institution that goes back decades prior to the revolution) to march on Tehran. But it is too early for that. Right now the ball is in Larijani court.

three wrong statements in the same paragraph - crown prince is the late Shah son not grandson - 1979 was a popular revolution. That was when the merchant, clerical and civil establishments took on the monarchy as a power center. It was not an Islamic revolution. It only became that after the islamist faction consolidated power. - crown prince may not sit on the Peacock Throne. But not because who his father was or was not. But simply for the fact that he has seen no hardship and been living in the U.S. for decades. That said I believe he can be a transitional figure. bonus: - the late Shah to his credit didn’t slaughter +10,000 of his own people. He simply left. Can’t say the same for these guys.

Now I understand why Trump calls New York Times “failing”. Population of the country is 92 million people not 15 million. Landlines and cellphone service were down across Iran, making it difficult to gauge public sentiment in the nation of about 15 million people as U.S. and Israeli forces struck targets for a second day.

My grandfather passed away in Canada in 2014. Old age. He never got to see this day, despite being glued to TV and news 24/7. But my dad got to see it. Incidentally he is the same age as Khamenei. Dad has been on YouTube like non stop for more than half a decade, contributing in his own way by watching, and being convince that “only Trump can do it”, telling us that the day is coming fast like every week for years now. A historic day for sure

Blackstone at same price as August 2021 vs Brookfield, which does not even include the BAM spin off

Shit .., they got Jean Claude Van Damme on speed dial.

Does anyone know where is the last interview the CNbC (life and legacy) release late in Jan it is not in CNBc archive and YouTube has something that someone uploaded but seems to jump around (cut)

I have been there. Hiking the Atlas Mountains. From Imlil. That was 2011 though. pretty easy to get around then. Now it is pretty popular so must be even easier. I was in Marrkesh in October (it was hot). We took the train from Casablanca to Marrkesh, it felt like it was going through deep dunes of Arrakis. A sight to behold. I did not do any cycling. In the north I remember I did the ferry ride from Tangier to Spain (and Gibraltar) and back for the hell of it. Fez (in the east) is really nice. But I disnt go. Ran out of time. there a spice trading town in the south that is popular as well. I didn’t go.

Totally UNCH since the high summer August days of 2020

Agreed though I reckon without press release, it shall be a UNCH. As i dont think the market in North America squints too hard on local media outlet in India. FIH is already illiquid, no official news and no press release … so i am betting on an UNCH !!

The Competitive Landscape • Fairfax India: Widely considered the frontrunner. Reports suggest Fairfax is offering an all-cash deal, which may be viewed more favorably by the government than complex stock-swap structures. • Kotak Mahindra Bank: Although long considered a top rival, Kotak issued a clarification to stock exchanges today (February 7) stating it has not submitted a financial bid for IDBI Bank, citing material movement in its share price as the reason for the public denial. • Other Bidders: While Emirates NBD and Oaktree Capital were previously cleared by the RBI's "fit and proper" assessment, recent reports indicate they may have also stayed away from the final financial bidding round.

Outstanding speech by Harper

that said I truly think the U.S. ambassador in Ottawa is a gentleman

The next front for Canadians : fanning the flame of Alberta separation and misinformation coming from Trump and his goons and online self-appointed influencers