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Xerxes

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Everything posted by Xerxes

  1. I am certainly not as nearly knowledgeable as others, but I think with “portfolio maturity” you get that average number of years left, as you indicated. With “duration of portfolio” you get a that time aspect along with the size of the cash flows. And since that last cash flow at the termination is lumpiness of all, the duration is always back-weighted and always lower than maturity. an example from Google on how it is calculated. Maturity of this on-the-run single 5-year is “5” but it’s duration is slightly less than 5; which is “4.55” as it is weighted to the size of the cash flow with respect to time.
  2. On all the bullish assumption on FFH “It's not what we don't know that gets us in trouble. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so'?“ - Mark Twain Xerxes is party popping from his new base in Kuala Lumpur
  3. Damn No question about Blackberry’ recent news, highlighting what a big mistake it was not to sell it in 2021.
  4. Costa rica is great. I remember they were getting mangoes from the forest and chopping it and preparing for us. I stayed close to the border of Panama for a week or so. I guess you are American. In my case, (as Canadian) we had to pay in US dollar or “adjusted local” currency. So not exactly LatinAmerica like cheap.
  5. Thanks. Did all the “Gardens by the bay” related stuff yesterday. Awesome place. Since I like history I am heading to the boring fortress complex of sentosa (or what remains of them). The cannons were pointing to the sea even as the Japanese descended on Singapore from the north through Thailand and Malaysia. I am heading next to the Kuala Lumper, Malacca, GeorgeTown, before heading to Thailand. ps: I actually held GRAB. And got “SPACed and whacked” during the drawdown.
  6. Currently in Singapore. On my way there, passed through the Middle East. This must have been the closest I have been to Iran in decades !
  7. https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/acquired/id1050462261?i=1000633030747
  8. Either that, or Chuck Norris was the captain of USS Ranger. And he refused to fight easy enemies.
  9. I am/was not familiar with that name. Not sure why it was not part of the famed “six” that I had back of my mind.
  10. I watch all of its … twice. HBO double down on the bull market on mafia genre. I don’t remember what is season 5, but I do recall one thing that was off. Chucky losing his empire literally overnight because show writers decided so. It didn’t flow well I thought.
  11. Yeah Sopranos and The Wire and who can forget “24”. Damn good times. fun fact about the main actor playing Sopranos (James G.)(RIP): HBO apparently paid him to not work on any project after the conclusion of Sopranos series. In order not to dilute his character brand, given how much he was associated with that face.
  12. Seinfeld and Cheers defined the 90s for me Games of Thrones defined the 2010s for me. 2020s there is no flagship. Just one giant pile of good shows.
  13. thanks. looks like I need to look into The Raid
  14. Strange. On the CNBC interview, both CEOs alluded to the fact that Chevron has a dividend yield of 6%. Wirth said “twice there nearest peer” wierd. Chevron dividend yield is at +3%
  15. But it is not just capacity and tech capability. It is needs to be part of their (I.e. PLA) military doctrine. And be sure that you will have an incumbent military industrial complex that will be protecting its “turf” and tell you that “no no. You got this all wrong. The future war will be like this … “ often times, desperation will be source of military innovation. And again I don’t mean the technology in of itself, rather how it is used. To my knowledge PLA has not fought in any wars since the mid-80s. They updated their peasant army’ military doctrine with some “Powell” update in the early 90s. That is about it. No real conflict
  16. Cheers ! U.S.S Attu much like most of those +70 escort carriers that survived were literally un-made few years after being commissioned. Think of all that supply glut of metal hitting the market post-WW2. J. Powell would have been right if he was serving in the late 40s !! The inflation was “transitory” Interestingly, there was one escort carrier (the only one ever) that was shelled and sank by a battleship. From the history books. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Gambier_Bay —- Funny enough it was ultimately NOT the Japanese that dawned the age of aircraft carrier nor the Americans who perfected it. It was actually the British who used aircraft carriers against the Italian naval assets sitting in their port in the Mediterranean in 1940 and scored. Not many folks took notice except for Yamamoto. Fast forward to today, we see a proliferation of drones. I think if we look back while we might see Ukraine as the east European theatre that really pushed the envelope on unmanned drones and put it on our TV screen, it was I think truly discovered during the 2020 Azerbaijani-Armenian war, with the former decimating the enemy and rewriting military handbooks as it went. But there was no Yamamoto watching that conflict. Russia did not notice nor did Ukraine, at that moment. Russia was blinded by its gigantic legacy military-industrial complex and all its vested interest and all of its inertia. And Ukraine was not thinking the unthinkable yet.
  17. pre-1941: 6 aircraft carriers (Wasp, Hornet, Enterprise, Lexington, Saratoga + Yorktown). three were based in the Pacific and three were based in the Atlantic. I know their names by heart, but slowly forget how they met their end. USS Lexington would be Coral Sea, and USS Yorktown would be Midway. The rest I remember no longer. by 1945, there ~30 Essex-class, ~25 Independence-class + 70+ escort carriers
  18. Not to start a political thread, but I read this Obituary and I found it fascinating. How wars, partition, macro events touches random bystanders and shape their lives till the very end. This would be more of a legal case, than anything else but an interesting story.
  19. The analyst is hedging his optimism. Just to be sure, just in case … Maybe much like his own nemesis (Watsa) he is going to end up hedging his ”book” for a decade. The 2020s will known as “Brett’ Lost Decade”
  20. Luca i think you might enjoy this episode. Peter Keefe talks about his top three positions (decade(s) old holdings) in about 45 min into the episode. The top three (Microsoft, Markel and American Tower) are very different holdings and different history of how he got into them. There are lots of lore on American Tower. At is pertains this thread and “driving FFH to the wall comment” by @StubbleJumper, Peter’s view on Markel is interesting. Calls insurance not a very good business and that he is only there because of the management as capital allocator.
  21. And they even pay you $10 USD per share per annum for sticking around in the bar or the lobby waiting !
  22. “Gangs of London” had also good reviews
  23. Bosch Season 2 is back on Prime !!
  24. Maybe MotleyFool should call them “Seeking Beta (gross of fees)”
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