Xerxes

but that is not 740 names across one single fund. They have many funds. But yes point taken. Too many names. just from memory, Ray’ organization is/was famous because of their “all season fund”*. So not so much the specific equity names being overweight, but rather asset allocation between equities and bonds. That was their special sauce. The macro allocation geared for these uncertain times ! That special sauce failed miserably in 2022 when the bubble in the bond market popped. * when was the last time anyone heard as Breaking News on business channels that Ray is buying significant stake in xxxx company

I never read this out of print book. Naturally I was trying to find the print of the new edition on Amazon. There are some “notebook” version. so be careful.

If you haven’t seen “gangs of London” you are missing out. that shit is complex !!

Saudi break-even is not comparable with shale break-even because you are looking at “production break-even” Shale producers are private companies beholden to the market. Aramco is the swing producer beholden to the national interest of a government. So I think one needs to look at “budget break-even” as a proxy when it comes to the national champion rather than the pure production breakeven. Do you really think Saudi government will let price drop so much as to put their national budget and all of the initiatives at risk. It did happen twice (late 80s and 2014) I think and both times within 1 year or they had to do a u turn. The Spice must flow.

did Donal Trump really read A book here … or did he just like the cover page.

While I admire your choice and conviction this is not how the world works. Perhaps it should but it does not.

this won’t be factor in India domestic affairs. In fact conducting assassination on foreign soil is often sign of great power status. Nor do I think this will be a major international issue. The Five Eyes will be just recalibrate slightly and tune down their rapprochement with Delhi. The Khashoggi was different and special as it was done in the most clumsy and disgusting way possible. Body being chopped off and thrown into acid inside of an embassy. And it involved two rivals: Turkey, the heir to the sultans, and the Kingdom, the up and coming leader of its block. Canada/US are not competing with India nor are they rivals. India however sees itself as a non-aligned world beholden to no one. There was interesting interview that The Economist had with the head of India foreign affairs back in summer before the whole thing blow up. It was very clear that Delhi was going to be transactional in its foreign policy. That is fine by me. As it is not for me to opine with whom other countries should be align to. As much as I like to have close relationship with Delhi.

Have neither read the book nor the article below. But might as well post it.

I enjoyed reading most/all of the comments here. That said, i must say the “business media” idea of remembering Charlie Munger is fg&&;ing lame. They talk about See Candies and helping Buffett “pivot” and BYD. Are you serious …. is that the only thing they can come up with. It is like trying to remember Napoleon, and talking about Austerlitz, Borodino and Wagram. “Oh yeah he took some scalps there, didn’t he”. Instead of macro earthquake that he was.

Rest in Peace.

There are a lot of heroic assumptions here about the ease of policy change from the current (1) “not letting Ukraine lose” … to … (2) “make Ukraine win” The former would be easier to fit in a sandbox, capping liabilities on every side, knowing what you get. While the latter may have both uncapped potential and as well as uncapped unintended negative consequence. That said, both policies are great for the military industrial complex. In terms of geopolitical outcome, would you rather sell calls/puts for a steady drip or buy large chunks of out of money call options.

For what is worth and just as a datapoint, unlike FIH whose performance fee are based on BV (and neither market value nor the spread between the two), the Brookfield performance fee for BIP, BEP and the affiliates is based on their market value and not their NAV.

Russia has already de jure annexed those territories. There is no such thing as de facto annex, when they already de jure annexed. what you are trying to say is that it has de facto control on most of it. And enough control to make life miserable in the parts that it doesn’t control but are formally annexed.

See the blue link on the first post. These are from 2014.

I

This must be a mistake and a mixup White House spokesperson, Adrienne Watson, said in a statement that Indian officials “expressed surprise and concern” at the accusations, suggesting extraterritorial assassinations were “not their policy”. “We understand the Indian government is further investigating this issue and will have more to say about it in the coming days. We have conveyed our expectation that anyone deemed responsible should be held accountable,” said Watson.

Speaking of Coca Cola. The podcast argues that unlike Pepsi which has become a snack company, Coke has become a total beverage company. That its key moat is its massive distribution and relationship with bottlers, where it can push out new products (Monster drink being one) at a global scale that its M&A team add in. Naturally the actual Coke business is not growing that much so other non-Coke drinks and beverages are contributing.

Happy Thanksgiving !!

the most important part of this post. That means we got more upside. Or mid-innings

Your statement is wrong. And too simplified. Two Arab states have a peace treaty with Israel now more than several decades. And four more joined in thanks to the Abraham Accord. And the Kingdom has the de facto close relationship with Israel. That is pretty much covered the majority of significant Arab states. And lastly Oman is the Switzerland of the Middle East, where different political factions can meet informally. So your statement is incorrect. Now the Arab governments have to balance their foreign policy with domestic points of views. Otherwise, they are out of job. That is a balancing act. No different than US president and Western politicians spewing out mumbo jumbo for a domestic audience and secure votes. Specifically on the different factions within the Sunni world, there are two key blocks + one key Shia block. (1) One is what I call is the “statues quo” faction made of Saudi, UAE, Egypt and Bahrain. These are the powers predominantly monarchies (except for Egypt) where their power rests on the maintaining the statue quo. They have been largely getting close to Israel. But the Garza War has been making it more and more difficult for the Kingdom to get back in. I don’t think it is dead, but definitely pushed back by a few years. (2) the other power is the “political islam” power block. Predominantly, Qatar and Turkey. The two champions of Muslim Brotherhood, from which Hamas has spawned. Qatar and Turkey had been the fuelling the Arab spring via Al-Jazeera that was toppling the “old order” in 2010s. Egypt for a short while became part of this group when Mohammed Morsi was in power, but now it is firmly back in camp (1). My view is that this power block exists because of Turkey wanting to reassert its leadership of the Sunni world and because Qatar (Al-Thani) wants to keep its sovereignty from Saudi Arabia. Therefore these two desires come into conflict with the “statues quo” camp. (3) And lastly of course there is Iran, which is neither of these two camps. And in fact is a Shia dominated country. They are revisionist power that will keep maintaining soft and hard power through Mesopotamia and Levant, as they have done in the days when Caesars ruled Constantinople, when Caliphs ruled Baghdad, and when Sultans held power in Istanbul, over a span more than a millennium. That insecurity for national security will always be there.

Right. But that is the locals. My comments is about commentators in the West.

Israel should do what it need to do with Hamas or any other national security threats. State or non-state. I don’t think that is in dispute. It is called national security. Why is everyone bringing this up to make a point ? Iran dealt the same way with ISIS in Iraq. A fact not understood or covered by Western brainwashing media. And Iran deals the same way with its perceived state-level adversaries and enemies, outside its border. If Iran, the anti-Western, does it, surely Israel can do so as well. And has been doing as well. Going back to Israel, the more recent Israeli government was more interested in pushing its settlement into the West Bank to fulfill its messianic dreams and needed to keep Hamas on its best behaviour. They even allowed Qatar transfer fund to Hamas. Fracturing the Palestinian position, pushing settlers and undermining whatever remains of its leadership and driving a wedge was more important to the current Israeli government than economic development and creating incentives. Unfortunately, Bibi was out-snaked by the Hamas snake (snake bigger than him). He got played. Hamas was not going to left hanging with the Israeli-Saudi rapprochement and had to play its hand, now or never. Therefore Bibi bears responsibility as well through sheer incompetence. Understand that just because a politician wears a tie and is able to climb to power through democratic means, it doesn’t mean he cannot be a psychopath or sociopath or a bloodthirsty man, or all at the sametime. Just as one can give credit to previous Israeli governments to try to mend and make peace with a stubborn Palestinian leadership one needs to acknowledge the current government mishaps. However few pro-Israeli posters can. They are polarized. As far as the 10K death, Israeli are just accelerating what they already been doing for decades. So nothing new there. Just as nothing new with Hamas, going after people who have absolutely nothing to do with any of this. There is just more spotlight than before. State-terrorism does exist as much as non-state terrorism. Strangling an entire population through cool gadgets over decades doesn’t make it more noble than bombing civilians via F-16 and that doesn’t make it more noble than Hamas tactics. How many posters can acknowledge that ? Two things can be truth at the same time. One should be able to comment/acknowledge that the Israeli are pursuing state-terrorism but one can also comment that they are at war. A war that was brought to them. At least in this current 2023 flare up context. Forgetting for a moment the long boring history behind it, that I cannot be bothered with. How many who have commented on this thread are able to raise their hand and acknowledge the comment above, while maintaining at the same time that it needs to be done. That is what war exists after all. Hence my comment on polarizing. Folks are hell bent to want to be right. It is their TRUTH. On the oversized attention that thing gets, I find it troubling (poor Zelenskyy) All I know is that in 2018 they’re throwing live babies into bonfires in Burma, and the media and the Western Instagram influencers could not be bothered with, because the victims were neither Jewish nor Palestinian. where the f&$k is Burma anyways Lastly both Palestinian and Israeli play the “media” victim card outside the war zone. Note how much insult the Israeli hurl toward the UN chief, for saying the right thing. The UN chief is not even able to make a comment without being branded as antisemite. And on the Palestinian side, for throwing in historical justification of 10/07 atrocities, because of this that and the other thing. Bullshit is everywhere. And probably some in my post as well. How many posters here can smell both sides and not just the side that is inconsistent to their polarized view. because of the polarized nature of the conflict it is a conversation not worth having.

What if you were both wrong and right at the same time. Can you hold two different points of views at the same time ? I think we best leave the discussion on current ME conflict outside this forum. It is very polarizing, and doesn’t bring the best in people. (Not in me anyways).