Xerxes

Is this legal ? Defaming other businesses seem like a low blow fool = Fool ? “Foolproof” you portfolio !

I thought we were stopping discussions on ME. In any case, the OSIntel Twitter guy seem to be good reference to follow. Too bad he wasn’t around in 2003. Collin Powell could have used a second set of eyes. also don’t know how dedicated he is in continuity and not selective participation on what he feels like covering (personal biases). Not sure if he did any work on gas pipeline “incident” in the Baltics … or the aftermath of “Russian” missile hitting Poland.

Agreed. They are ALL full of it. Moving on …. Putin was recently holding court in a televised 3 hr discussion (incidentally and unrelated in it he said, he likes Canadians*). In it, he made it clear how nukes are off table as the State is not threaten etc etc. however he is opening door for atomic tests. Not a direct quote. * I liked that part In parallel, there are talks (growing talks) about using Russian central bank reserve that are in the West to finance Ukraine rebuilt, such act was previously considered as sacrosanct. To me it seems to be we are in holding pattern waiting for the next “step change” in terms of which Rubicon being crossed, and how to answer.

Not only US, but Canadian citizens were kidnapped (and killed) as well by Hamas. That said we also have US and Canadian citizens (probably) that are in Gaza at the receiving end of freedom-fireworks. I don’t see anything in particular about the US aircraft carrier battle group. Right or wrong, it is in line with US historical alignment with Israel. Fareed Z. had two great podcasts one on CNN and one on Prof G. I highly recommend folks to listen to those. To me it is becoming more and more clear how Natan-yahoo and his government in their bid to split the Palestinians and expand settlement in the West Bank, have been following a policy of upholding Hamas while marginalizing the ruling PA (Palestinian Authority) in the West Bank. Hamas has been an asset of some sort (for lack of better word), showcasing PA impotence and undermining its leadership. The final piece would have been the Saudi peace treaty. In short, he has tried to tame and use a serpent as leverage, instead he got bitten. https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-prof-g-pod-with-scott-galloway/id1498802610?i=1000631061670 https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/fareed-zakaria-gps/id377785090?i=1000631380057

Yeap. FIFO it is

Ignore Dalio anybody who write a book called “Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order” is worth ignoring. I cannot stand people putting frameworks, and/or oversimplify geopolitical events into good/bad guys. there is no “nutshelling” when discussing these matters. For what it is worth

Enjoy ! just the way it is written reads like a novel. And the author brings the story full circle to the Romanov, Ming and Manchu dynasties, as heirs to the empire.

@Dinar What Arabs did or did not centuries ago is irrelevant to the situation to Gaza. If I were to follow your logic then there should be no white men left alive in South Africa. Because that is not their land. How do you square that ? I hope you don’t think Arab are also responsible for Spanish Inquisition. Hamas is a terrorist organization that feeds on chaos. But whether a Gazaian person who has been bottled up for decades in Gaza has some sympathy for Gaza, as the entity that gives the middle finger, while the rest of Arab world have “moved on” does not mean that person is a Hamas terrorist. No different than an Israeli, who has had it with Arabs and Muslims, who may feel a great sense of excitement and joy seeing the Arabs humiliated. One thing is clear, the attack was so outrageous and so over-the-top that it was meant to be like throwing a grenade in a middle of a party, aimed at getting a significant reaction. The war will not expand. Hezbollah might fire a few firecrackers in sympathy, and the American will blow their horn from their aircraft carrier in sympathy. Every player in the Middle East, whether they are state or non-state actors have a lot of levers. But each of those levers are always major “step change”. Hamas has used its one-time lever, knowing that it would be a “step change” and that it can do that only once. Hizbollah is not going to use any levers (I don’t think) because Lebanon and its base of power is not threaten.

Once you gave the “the last supper” speech of ‘less business going forward so consolidate’, right after the fall of Soviet Union. That base dissipated. That industrial base will take decades to be rebuilt. One of the reason why Bank of America and other analysts are harping on Boeing, is due to the fact that it may lose its engineering force through attrition. Sure from a short-term shareholder point of view, what Boeing is doing is great. Get that juice into FCF (for returns) and less Capex and capital investment. See what happened to McDonnell Douglas. Given the level of concentration in the defence industry, we are at the level that major programs are not just awarded based on cost, performance, specs etc but also knowing that if X wins and Y loses, the loser will just move away and will not be there to bid and keep competition for the next round.

Unsaid is the multiplier-effect that his work had with the Giving Pledge.

Agreed. It is wonderful book. I read it about 15 years ago. Loved the part where Blackbird pilots would go flying all the way to North Pole and when gone back home for supper, they couldn’t answer their wives on “how was their day”. I am guessing pilots didn’t stay on site. Also I would recommend this book. About the father of U.S. nuclear submarine fleet. Covers “Electric Boat”, an GD subsidiary, and a less glamorous era for General Dynamics. Kelly Johnson and Rickover were the Elon Musks of that era

there two podcast episodes I like to share, they provide good assessment IMHO. The first one with the Israeli journalist is very on point. https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/defense-aerospace-report/id1228868129?i=1000630692175 https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/war-on-the-rocks/id682478916?i=1000630732302

Simple Israeli domestic politics dictates that Israel needs to launch a full ground invasion of Gaza. Bibi’ own political survival may depend on that forcefulness given some extremists in his own government with some very extreme points of views. In fact, as someone who campaigned so hard on security issue, he is got to go Gaza or he is got to go (fired) The civilians in Gaza will be trapped as always. The Israeli civilian captured or otherwise will be trapped as always. And Hamas wins even if it looses, for it accomplished two things (1) MBS was going to leave them behind, no more (2) they shattered the myth behind IDF. It took decades to build that, and it took 24 hours to lose it. PS: in one of the podcast I posted below, the commentator says this is not 9/11 nor Pearl Habour, it is rather Tet 1968 all over again

Ukraine own mistakes. Over obsession with Bakhmut to “bleed them white”. Koffman said it at one point: it is not about kill ratios, rather the quality of those ratio and replacement cycle.

neither RTX nor LHX has become the cannibals of their own shares as much as Lockheed, Northrop and General Dynamics have become in the last 10 years. RTX and LHX have been going through M&A which what the other three went through largely from 1995 to the 2010s. Once their portfolio of the trio was set, they became buyback machines. I expect the same from RTX and LHX.

was driving home for +2 hours back from Thanksgiving. Logged back in and then it was gone

for some reason I cannot find Israel War thread. Maybe it got moved ? where do I write my mumbo-jumbo ?

https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/focused-compounding/id1352422076?i=1000622643584

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/18/us/politics/ukraine-russia-war-casualties.html

perhaps your view of quants will also help me on my BBD i had shares lots of which were bought in 2020 and some before. With massive rally from the bottom surely BBD is now more palatable for PMs

https://www.apple.com/tv-pr/news/2023/10/apples-highly-anticipated-action-packed-limited-series-masters-of-the-air-from-steven-spielberg-tom-hanks-and-gary-goetzman-to-premiere-globally-friday-january-26-2024/ This is really cool and great news. Never got into “The Pacific” but appreciated “Band of Brothers”.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Available_for_sale

AFS is the more honest treatment as it marks everything to the market and let the BV adjust, on a quarterly basis. HTM is the treatment that sort of assumes the “bond market” is closed. So we cannot trade until maturity nor can we “see” the market price, therefore cannot “mark”. That is what got the banks in trouble. This treatment sees ownership of fixed-income securities as like contracts between the two sides, … holding out till then the end. I think the nuance that Viking is speaking of is not so much AFS vs HTM. Rather if the realized/unrealized gain/losses changes pass through the P/L before hitting BV or not. I am uncertain (don’t remember) if with AFS both options are available. Aside AFS and HTM there was also Held for Trading which definitely would hit P/L.

All this negative comments on Brett Horn just tells me that you are not a forward looking investor as he is. (Sarcasm)