Xerxes

I think it was Koffman who spoke to this more than anybody else. He suggested that neither the Ukrainian nor the Russian armies today are the armies (in terms of composition) that we saw in early 2022, given the high level of attrition. Ukrainian army has lost its youngest more capable, Western oriented generation and today the army is led by more its Soviet-influenced officers, coming out of retirement to backfill. These folks are more top down as oppose to Western style self sustained decision making at unit level that characterize the early days. Also, my understanding was that Western advisors were leaning on Ukraine to use combined-army approach, (land and air forces working in close collaboration to make breakthrough), and that at some point during the offensive Ukrainian high command throw in the towel and revert back to what it knows best: artillery duels. Koffman view (if I remember correctly) was that it was a mistake for the West to lean on them to do something they were yet ready for. Something along those lines. Valuable time and resources were lost. One thing that Ukraine has done really well is waging asymmetrical warfare in the Black Sea and deep within Russia using drones. It doesn’t win your lands back but I suppose you got to keep hitting where it hurts at the underbelly.

you are missing one crucial fact. Bakhmut. The city became a political objective for Zelensky both to draw Russian manpower and deny the Russian the city as a victory. That Ukrainian political obsession with Bakhmut is what allowed Russian General Staff to build the incredible defensive Survikin Line, while empty their prisons to support Zelensky’ political cause. Ukraine may have killed at a ratio of 1-4 (or more) for now fallen Bakhmut, but it could ill afford the 1 vs 4, given the quality of its troops vs human wave coming out of prisons. Ps : also at some point in 2023, Ukraine moved back from its aspiration to fight like a NATO joint force and revert back to what knows well. Soviet style warfare.

Geopolitics and investing do have one thing in common: Sometimes you get it very right but often you get it wrong. When the latter happens, you need re-evaluate. Think about how many times Kissinger was wrong, yet we highlight his steering of U.S. toward PRC, and breaking the taboo as his legacy. Putin certainly misread the situation and the reaction of the West in 2022. Yet, he is more powerful today in 2024 than he was in 2022. People on this very board and Twitter, made lists of all the things Russia lost since 2022 (sanctions, NATO expansion, brain drain etc.) as if geopolitics is about doing NPV computations. I would argue that the world that is shaping up today is more aligned to Putin's liking than pre-2022. I would argue that he is a happier man today.

Chris Bloomstran would argue very strongly against the #4 statement. Issuing stock at 3.0x BV to buy a large chunk of bond-portfolio that allowed Berkshire to "diversify" its highly skewed equity exposure to Coca Cola and others without selling it. Whether Buffett agrees with that or not, it is irrelevant. He went through the unpleasant exercise of dealing with General Reinsurance derivative portfolio, so he may have a bias. But the end results is that he issued expensive equity at the right time and diversify away, whether he intended or not. At the end he was right for the wrong reasons, ... and sometimes it is like that. You take it.

Biden is buying the dip in Kazakhstan, scooping up outdated assets (possibly for Ukraine) https://ca.yahoo.com/news/us-buys-81-soviet-era-145127753.html

your logic is not wrong. But where you are wrong is that you forget that the Kremlin lost the Cold War !! You don’t get to lose and get to keep your imperial privileges at the same time. There are no rules to this game. Only what you make yourself. If Kremlin prevails in Ukraine in 2024-25, then a new equilibrium is established and imperial privileges are restored. And that is the future that the West is working hard to ensure that does not happen.

see 1854 Crimean War, it started off as helping the “sick man of Europe” (Turkey at the time, Ukraine today) against an aggressive Tsar, but soon became “let’s get glory while we are at it”. 2022 war would have become the same thing with NATO boots in Ukraine if not for the MAD doctrine, where some sort of “equilibrium” is de facto established.

I went in 2023 to Japan, my second time after a 15 year hiatus, my first time was in 2005. I missed seeing both times Nagasaki. I have a thing for old Portuguese colonies. You can add Gao, Macau to that list. I did see Malacca and Penang in Malaysia. it is interesting how memory works. I went to see the Shogun palace in Kyoto in 2005. And I had good memories of my visit for +15 years. when I visited again in 2023 the exact same location in Kyoto, the museum of course had not changed, but I have no longer access to my 2005 memories. They are now superseded by 2023 of the same location.

hi well done sir. is there a specific peak or trail you would recommend for first timers in Nepal ? Which is more than a hill but not a killer. I have been up to +5,000 meter in Peru. Not a peak per se, but across the rainbow ridge.

Long Live the Empire

I don’t know where I read this. It was about someone who was watching Masters of the Air who was recounting a conversation he had, I think, in the 60s or 70s with one of those retired bomber leaders post-war, and how someone in his early 20s could have so much responsibility. The person then mentioned that he wouldn’t trust his own 20 year old with a wheelbarrow.

There is nothing wrong with politicians starting wars offensive and/or defensive, as they are there to led and we elected to do just that. Or in some cases they put guns on our head and said elect me. However I expect every one of those same politician to put their owns sons and daughters right in the frontline, ready to give their lives for that vision that was so important. I think this should be in fact a requirement. Skin in the game.

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/frontline-ukrainians-fear-aid-u-083843561.html …. Biden promised the arms shipments would begin immediately and hailed what he called “a good day for world peace.” The reaction here, near the front lines of the war, felt very different. Oleg sighed when The Daily Beast told him about the events 5,000 miles away in Washington, D.C. “Are you serious?” he said. “Now this war will just continue.” ….. …. Soldiers told The Daily Beast Russia hopes to take control of the city in the Donbas region by May 9, the World War II Remembrance Day for Russia and other post-Soviet countries. Throughout much of Ukraine, a collective sigh of relief has been felt, and many far away from the fighting feel that finally, they are receiving the aid they so desperately have needed. But in Kharkiv, 19 miles away from the Russian border, some residents are angry that the U.S. is resuming its aid.

Was never fan of L3. When it comes to the defense industrial complex, I am only interested in their priority and/or consistency in returning capital and the longevity of their program. RTX and Lockheed come ahead as they have a focus on FCF per share and EPS. It is worth mentioning the CEO of Lockheed comes from the American Tower fame. And you can see that in spade. They are the only ones that put in place large ASR when market fell below franchise value. Northrop and General Dynamics comes next. Great franchises and very term runway, but very consistent capital return policy (too consistent as they always return 100% via dividends and buyback). But no desire to reduce share count considerably beyond what their FCF allows them to if a special situations gives them that opportunity. Northrop own’ slides shows a focus on FCF but not on FCF per share. and I don’t where L3 is at

Sorry guys. but again GM had to spend better part of the last decade exiting its global footprint, and invest in its ultiim EV platform. These are done now, or at least the runway has been built. The shares that they are buying back are FAR more valuable than a decade ago. This is not some mindless steel, iron ore or coal company that wants to get some love by buying back.

hahaha it’ an oriental grand fatherly-like thing. Very normal $1,500 doesn’t hurt either

^^^ thank you sir

Peltz was 100% right to go after Walt Disney. And shareholders were 100% right to reject him. Two things can be true at the same time

I think what Nintendo needs is a good old listing in the NYSE. Why does SONY has one but Nintendo cannot ? Incidentally SONY is flat from Oct last year till now. And Yen-USD is where it was last Oct.

Agreed There is also the human individual element of it. Flocking to the patriotic flag during the dire hours of 2022 is one thing, two years later I would imagine there are two different world within the war torn Ukraine. Those in downtown of a major capital, protected like a fortress, with the occasional irritation and reminder of being at war. And those slugging it out in the trenches. Both sides enjoy the material and public support from the West, but only one side has to risk their lives everyday. I was in Tehran during the 8 years war, except for the occasional Scud missiles and air bombing via modified Mig25 (that broke through the F-14 shields) by the Iraqi and some line-ups for meat, live went on. I cannot say the same thing about the cities that were on the frontline with Iraq. I would expect as years go by, folks wanted to be in the camp that is Fortress Kyiv than being pulled

The good professor is on fire !!

Disney => 34% since oct 2023 Nintendo => 16% since oct 2023 cherry picking? of course I am Go Bobby

yeah. even if GM and Ford get left in the dust by Tesla on their EVs, they can create a lot of per share value by returning capital in a slow growing GDP ICE industry. I don’t know what the future will hold, but you don’t get to be a AutoZone by sporting high P/E as the share count goes down. And forget about Ford. With the family controlling 40% of stock, there is zero incentive for buyback. They prefer cash dividend. GM is the really story here

Right. I think we each need define what we mean by West. And Orient as well. For me West, is the heir to Greco-Roman world. All of it. The good and the bad and the ugly. But not based on colour. From that broader definition of West perhaps a narrower subbranch is today’ Western liberal order. Another subranch is its dark side equivalent, which we saw in the 1930s. To think of its, perhaps “people stock” are like the h/w. And Western ideal is like the s/w that runs the operating system. Thus you can have Japanese “oriental stock” (h/w) sporting a high end Western operating system (s/w). But that doesn’t make the Japanese people the heir to the Greco-Roman world.

you cannot just “click” on the filter on Excel to remove “the era” that you don’t like and/or doesn’t suit you. No more than other civilization(s). Ex: The Belgian people cannot just decide “let’s remove our atrocities in Congo from the historical timeline when we were led by King Leopold II and do a rest to improve our “Good Guys” KPI” Ex: Iranians cannot decide to say “1979 didn’t happen”. No it happened. Ex: did U.S. “not” commit genocide against the natives, because the final output benefitted the world on a net basis ? You take it all in. Bad and good. And you never do a “restructuring charge” to kitchen sink. Japan will always be the Orient, as well as South Korea. They just happen to have Western like democracies. Was Chile led by Pinochet turned into an Asian dictatorship, because they throw away their democracy and installed a one man rule.