Xerxes

Perhaps I can neutralize further downside by shorting the exact # of FFH I am currently long ;D

He bought Petrochina ahead of an era of unprecedented demand for oil. No such thing today

It should be a very interesting AGM next month. I don’t mind share drop. What I mind is them having exposure (through illiquidity of some of their holdings) when they advertise as otherwise.

Sold GILD (done care about vaccine speculation) Like to take the proceed to add to my AMZN or BRK or DIS or UTX or GOOG but cannot decide

I would say there has to be two-prong approach Quality in the current indiscriminate selling followed by your suggestion above some months later to pick up the smaller ones that had their intrinsic value wiped clean but somehow survived

I work from home and live in Canada. I don’t like it. Once in a while is ok (once a week) but cannot stand not seeing people. I don’t know Markel very well. I always thought it of as FFH with a better equity picks. That said I think Blackstone and Brookfield are the names that can go side by side with Berkshire as “picking up the pieces” winner. I actually believe AMZN customer-centered formulae will prove to be winner over merchant-centred Shopify due to what happened. Sure Shopify is expanding its platform to merchants but in a time of crisis AMZN can become like an utility something that Shopify cannot. I am long term believer of Uber and with $10 B in cash I think they can innovate. As a side note: US Gov spend trillions of dollars on its nuclear triad and military for defense, and here we had world greatest economy knocked out by a virus. There is bound to be ramification. Within aerospace sector, i believe in the newly created aero-Defense giant Raytheon Technologies and in time (given what happened b/c corona impact on aerospace industry) market will see the wisdom behind that diversification strategy.

Not to pile on Prem W. as I respect the man. But I would just note that in his annual letter he made a comment about high fliers tech companies and how expensive they are. Yet, the NASDAQ leadership “I.e FANGS” although down are no where near down as value is.

The situation must be concerning for ONEX that bought Westjet for $4B or so for its fund.

Was toying with the idea of buying puts on the VIX at 65 strike There got to be a temporary plunge down in VIX

My only hope is that as a natural bear, he smelled it few weeks before it hit the fan. And somehow increased his bearish stand. I vividly recall in the Q4 results from 2017, the number showed that he lost a certain amount because he shorted to early in Dec where the mini crash happened few months later in Feb 2018, when Trump went first against China on trade.

Even for the bet against the housing market 10 years back, I believe he was, in his word wrong, wrong, wrong and then right. But it was only a few years wait. This time he had to wait 10 years. And it must have been very hard to maintain the steady course whilst everyone telling you to join the party. In retrospect if you are a natural bear, perhaps you should have rolled your deflation hedges every five years starting fresh.

As a side note given Prem nose for bearishness (notwithstanding his 180 degree in 2017), it would be hard to imagine him not taking advantage of what the virus could mean for equities heading into late February. I am myself am too lazy and slow to buy put options on obvious things like airlines or related industries, but I hope he could squeeze a bit of juice through shorts and puts to add to BK

I added at 205, again at 195 and am glad to see I don’t need to add at 185 and go straight to 175

Just to understand what is being explained : Is the opportunity for FFH to liquidate it’s current bond portfolio with a capital gain as yield crater or is the opportunity for them locking at higher rate on corporate bonds due to widening spread ? Or both

Side question : How much of the $40B portfolio can they realistically deploy if they see good names ? With indiscriminate selling I would think they wouldn’t have to “try to hard” to find investing opportunities like in the past. I understand their need to buyback some of the minority positions, recap the insurance side to take advantage of the hard market and maybe buy back shares with left overs take priority; but all these are being funded through corporate earning. Correct ?

It would be the ultimate letdown if the deflation hedges don’t produce meaningful results.

Wasn’t able to catch it when it opened 22% down. But caught it I think as 10% down.

At $10.95, trade with a huge discount to BV. But I am guessing things will get worse before they get better.

I added to BRK position today at 1.2 BV. I am guessing the BV is currently overvalued as the dip in AAPL + BAC in Q1 hasn’t hit the book yet. So maybe I am actually buying at a higher premium than I think.

I was at the AGM last year, I recall the team had to do a lot of explaining for FAH performance I am eager to see what they will say in AGM this year with share price down so much. Incidentally the Letter is out this weekend

I think like options, these hedges have time premium, and with just couple of years left, that premium has mostly collapsed. Said differently, the downturn needs to be far severe today, to get a homerun, then had it happened say 6 years ago.

From what i have seen, his pattern has been on 'media-off' from fall till Q4 results. Then a frenzy of discussion and interviews till next fall.

I think it is just due to lack of inflows funds into EM with EM being out of fashion as whole; and nothing to do with FFH management. i am very content with the discount. Have been buying since 2017. i think it is one of those investment, that once inflows to EM picks up some years from now, the same folks that refuse to buy it at current depressed prices would willing to pay 1.5x book. And i like the fact that the volatility of IIFL (it being mark to market) creates discount opportunities in the stock, with the private holdings acting as a dampener or a floor, when FIH stock falls.

Petec, i heard Brookfield as well when i was listening to the conference call. search the release and there was nothing there. putting my conspiracy theorist hat on: i believe Prem might have blurted that out, because he was thinking about it, and he was thinking about it because something is in the works with Brookfield that is not public yet. i figured that the Airport unknown buyer in India might have been a BAM related/affiliated entity. Makes sense given all the talks that Bruce has been doing about India's opportunity today given the current financial crisis. But then again he was not talking about the Airport he was talking about Seaspan when he mentioned Brookfield.

BTW the FFH tab of your excel is a work of art