Red Lion

You don’t have to go so far back into the history books to see other examples. eg the opium wars.

+1

Because it doesn’t work?

What investments do you think would do well if the USD tanks? Other than FX? Maybe PM.

I think this is all somewhat semantic. A growth stock isn't overvalued in the first place if you think you should be including it in your portfolio, right? It's all value investing, there's just room for disagreement about whether that exists. The long term prospects of a business and its ability to return capital to shareholders should determine its value. A company trading at 50x earnings that grows earnings 50% annually for 10 years while returning all capital to shareholders is undervalued. A company trading at 50x earnings that can grow its earnings for 20% a year and return capital for 20 years is still undervalued. A company trading at 4X earnings that continues to plow money back into losing investments at a low ROIC, and never returns capital to shareholders....that might be overvalued. Capital light businesses trading at high multiples will often appear to be overvalued based on book value especially, but if they have growth prospects they can still turn out to be great investments without going to the capital markets to raise capital. Management really can make a huge difference, and it seems like perpetual "undervaluation" seems to be highly correlated with entrenched bad management without aligned incentives.

Trimmed APO, OWL, PM, and Nintendo in my retirement accounts.

+1

I've had a tracking position since PayPal gave me $25 of bitcoin as a promotion. Obviously wishing I'd backed up the truck at basically any time previously since it would have been a good trade. Most of my positions have still managed to outperform over that same time frame, so I'm not broken hearted. BTC is one of those investments like TSLA that I never understood but sat by and watched people getting rich. I think there's something to be said for momentum trading since perhaps it helps people catch onto some of these ideas they don't even understand. I was listening to a recent interview with Druckenmiller, and it seems like he's been very successful with an essentially momentum strategy over the years.

Have you considered writing clickbait for the motley fool?

Just get a good policy and an umbrella policy. Not that hard. Then maybe a pool fence for starters. Funny thing is it’s impossible to get insurance in California right now, but the pool hasn’t been an issue.

I trimmed some APO and OWL in my 401k. These are two of my favorite positions, and my two biggest positions even after being trimmed. Used the money to build JOE up to a 15% position in the 401k.

I wouldn't go without it. It gets miserable in the summer here without one. I know people that waste more money in fancy car depreciation in 5 years than I spent on a swimming pool that will last for 50 years. They're a lot of maintenance though. Not good for investment properties.

I’ve been shopping for pools in California, and I ended up getting a way better concrete pool for less money. Maybe it’s just market inefficiency, but I’m not so sure fiberglass actually is cheaper to the consumer. Or perhaps very dependent on the topography at an individual site. Also some really high end neighborhoods in the foothills commonly have fiberglass pools and they’re really nice too.

You're welcome! I feel like I really need to dig in to look for opportunities, now that I can't find any low hanging fruit with the alts. I do still feel like the group BX/ARES/KKR/APO/BAM/CG/OWL can do well over the long term, but the valuations are high across the board.

Seriously! I think I'm close. I just sent you a message.

Bought JOE in my retirement account after trimming my largest position (OWL) after a recent runup. I've done well on JOE before in my taxable accounts, but sold around current prices to free up capital for some private real estate investments. It's been on my mind to start building back a position.

I trimmed some OWL in my retirement account. I've lost more money selling winners than buying losers, and I try to remind myself of that. But the retirement account is heavily concentrated, and I just can't take advantage of these short term gains in my other investment accounts without paying a punitive tax rate. I immediately rolled the proceeds into JOE (starting the position inside my retirement account). So after today's sale, OWL/APO are about equal weight in my retirement account, both accounting for ~20% positions. Nintendo and PM are at 15%. JOE and BTI are at 8%. CLPR/CPT/OXY warrants are ~4% positions.

Awesome, this one will probably get away from me by the time I get comfortable with the moving pieces. Sounds like a killer setup.

I'm not familiar with this at all, but I had to look it up since you have a habit of hitting these special situations on the head and walking away with buckets of Benjamins. The only news article I saw mentioned that New York Supreme Court ruled in favor of GYRO. Are you concerned about an appeal? Isn't Supreme Court the trial court in New York? Or was this just another instance of sloppy journalism?

Seriously, I haven't ever invested in any of his businesses, but to listen to every halfwit progressive talk about how stupid Elon Musk is just blows my mind.

I agree with you in sentiment, but charts like this should serve as incentive. Not to be excluded due to class warfare sentiment that will be bandied against them.

Bought a tracking position in CP while I do further research. Not finding a lot of value in the markets currently, but I've been spoiled over the last 5 years buying alt asset managers at too cheap valuations. I really like the combination of reoccurring annuity like revenues, high ROIC, high growth, and a below market valuation. Not finding all 4 in any of the companies on my radar right now.

@Dinar This is an excellent response. Thank you!

I've been looking at this name again since you mentioned it a few weeks back, and I had been following for a few years around the time of the merger. This has perennially been one of those companies I want to buy, but can't wrap my head around the valuation. I'm trying to expand my perspective so this is very helpful. So you're willing to value this on 2029 numbers, with the understanding that it's an irreplaceable asset that should be able to maintain superior pricing power for a long period beyond that? Would this company be a net benefit of a trump/Harris administration? I'd like to understand this rationale more and get comfortable with it. I've missed out on a good investment over the years with CP, and really missed the boat on railroads in general. It seems like they really should have been a concentrated buy and hold type position when factoring in past stock performance in my investing lifetime.

Bought some OXY warrants in my retirement account. Open to doing a swing trade on these if it works out.