KPO

PCYO at the close. Small caps are disproportionately on the receiving end of the market decline, as usual. I suspect the Fed’s balance sheet reduction is the main driver of the water lowering for all assets. Should be interesting to see how long this goes on.

MSGE & FRFHF

MSGS

Perusing some old filings and thinking about the CVX position that Berkshire has somewhat quietly built the last few years, which is 2X the OXY position, has me wondering if being the largest shareholder in a combined CVX/OXY is the end game. The Permian synergies and long term strategic value of controlling the largest domestic block of oil & natural gas would be an interesting final move for Buffett. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/773910/000095015719000475/form425.htm https://chevroncorp.gcs-web.com/static-files/728b8ce6-1c60-4643-9e58-2d64f28e134e

More ALCO under $32 and Atlas preferred (H and I)

ALCO

Energy around loving a sell-side analyst on a value forum is unexpected. Of the 7 analysts that cover Berkshire I haven’t seen much in the way of unique insights, but good to hear that you like him.

Good list. Closing out the swap contracts would be another. At this stage I’d prefer straight buybacks or tenders like they did late last year.

GMBXF

Not sure if this applies to Greg, but it seems like the Value Line and Morningstar analysts usually have unusually broad coverage, so I pretty much ignore anything they have to say in terms of recommendations. Both are fine for historical data though.

GMBXF

I’m not all that precise on the position sizing, but they’ve been roughly equal to date.

Yeah, this one is kind of interesting as there’s probably little risk that it doesn’t close, but it’s not clear to me what I’d end up with on the CVR after taxes (despite being in tax advantaged accounts).

Thanks! I’ll check this out. Sounds like you’re in the same boat as me in not spending much time on these, but still enjoying the outcome.

Great topic. I’ve been doing this off and on for years with 5-10% of my portfolio. I always target cash deals and I hold the positions in my Roth or traditional IRA to avoid creating a tax event. On balance I’ve actually been surprised how well it’s worked out, but I don’t feel like I’ve developed a good repeatable process for sourcing ideas. It’s just sort of been randomly stumbling upon ideas from various sources. I’m actually in a spot where I need some new ideas as CNR, TEN & VG have mostly run their course. I’ve got a bit of ATVI, but if others have ideas I’d be interested.

What ever happened to this guy? I always enjoyed his stream of consciousness posts.

Thanks for sharing. This kind of made me laugh, although I suppose me knowledge of Australia isn’t any better: ”Buffett’s main renewables play so far has been through MidAmerican Energy, based in Dec Moines, Idaho”

They also act as a hedge of sorts if you have a lot of O&G exposure like I do. Do you have a preferred tire company to invest in? I own a little GT, but don’t love the balance sheet.

MTN under $215

Yeah, my thinking here is that he either rides it as a hedge for a while then peels off a division (most likely OxyChem) in an exchange or he sells once he’s ridden it up enough and potentially oil inflation peaks. That said, my own personal bias is that ESG and things like zero emission mandates by 2035 keep oil well over extraction cost. Rhetorical question: do tires not cause a form of emissions, particularly on much heavier EVs?

NTR & MOS are decent options here, but not home runs. I’ve bought a small amount of each as inflation hedges a while back, but more recently a lot of farmers are evidently reducing fertilizer this year rather than taking the unusually high prices the market offers. As a farmer this is a short term fix, which could lead to some pretty terrible humanitarian issues in the less affluent corners of the world in 6-12 months. These are buys if the war drags on another 12+ months, and will generate nice cash flow short term if it doesn’t as the supply constraints will continue for a period of time once the war is resolved.

At best timing markets is a difficult task and at worst it’s foolish for those that have a low stock allocation. I’m actually not buying here, but I understand why folks would start averaging into this and several other quality names. Who am I to question an investing legend, but I never loved the Apple position sizing and I think it carried Berkshire $30-40 per B share above fair value and is now pulling it down. Both are great companies, but that doesn’t mean they’re priceless. I last bought several times between $170 & $180 during Covid (out of pure luck), so would like to see the late 2019 prices of $210-220 before buying again….and this is partially because there are more interesting opportunities currently.

Not exactly contrarian, but there are some interesting merger arb opportunities like TEN, and of course ATVI, with 30-35% annualized profit potential. Even Y is 2% off the deal price and should close in 4 months or so. Not exciting, but should perform ok on a relative basis with less risk of principal. I also have to wonder if BA @ $115 and WBD sub-$14 will look like bargains in retrospect when we look back on them 4-5 years from now.

Is this climate change or over population in the cities that use Mead and Powell as a water source? Probably some of both, but it’s definitely bad at Mead when bodies start getting exposed from the mob sinking them in the lake back in the day.

A bit more AIV @ $6.20; Hopefully it will go sub $5.50 again so I can make more serious purchases.