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KPO

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Everything posted by KPO

  1. This is why I’d like to see these wound down. It could create a significant headwind under certain circumstances, which is an unnecessary risk to expose the shareholders to.
  2. I think they hit a blackout period shortly after the announced purchase. Will be interesting to see what he does from here, particularly with the cash pile growing every day.
  3. Well said. It’s a man made constraint. It will self correct in 12-24 months, not many years. Things like NTDOY will benefit inside of 18 months. It seems similar to the cocoa situation, which for a variety of reasons, was supposed to take 5-10 years to stabilize. It stabilized, and returned very close to prior levels in around 24 months.
  4. All of the above and then some. Sorry I didn’t have the link that skirts the pay wall.
  5. Thanks @Hoodlum. You’re more tech savvy than I am.
  6. Canada love from Barron’s. Agree with a lot of this: https://www.barrons.com/articles/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-investing-stocks-next-1ffee794?mod=djem_b_Weekly Barrons feed for last 24 hours
  7. Interesting article. Lots of Canada love here: https://www.barrons.com/articles/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-investing-stocks-next-1ffee794?mod=djem_b_Weekly Barrons feed for last 24 hours
  8. Back in the late ‘90’s/early 2000’s at the AGM Buffett and Munger talked about the opportunity missed by not taking this approach with pharmaceuticals. I feel like I have a decent grasp of the economics from owning STNE the last several years, which has performed pretty well, albeit in a different geographic market that has a fair amount of currency risk attached. But I still have somewhat limited visibility to what makes one of these companies more likely to generate more FCF per share over time than the other. That being the case I bought a basket of PYPL, FIS, FISV, GPN & FOUR, and sized positions based on perceived risk (e.g. FOUR is the smallest position). Did the same thing in healthcare over the last several months and enterprise cloud-based software recently. It should be interesting to see how it all pans out.
  9. Interesting related data point. Their coating solutions touch a wide range of industrial and commercial products, including both new and repaired automobiles. This is how inflation sneaks into many products. https://investor.ppg.com/news/news-details/2026/PPG-announces-global-price-increase-of-up-to-20-already-in-progress/default.aspx
  10. If the current refined fuel prices persist it be interesting to see if the state of California comes back to PSX hat in hand.
  11. In another life I was in IR and also created nonsensical charts like this that look dramatic unless you actually pay attention to the Y-axis. That said, I’ve always held more than enough oil exposure to hedge out my personal risk should prices go parabolic, so I actually don’t care what happens here.
  12. Added 70% to NTDOY position.
  13. Starters in WDAY and CRM. Add to FIS.
  14. Yeah, at initial glance I don’t love it, but I’ll give Ajit and team the benefit of the doubt that it’s structured and priced appropriately given the risk.
  15. Timely post: https://www.dfc.gov/media/press-releases/dfc-chubb-announce-additional-american-reinsurance-partners-and-40b-coverage
  16. Very interesting. Thanks for sharing.
  17. Added these as well. And starter in FIS.
  18. Thanks for sharing. I’ll check it out. Outside of a trading position in CVS I had no exposure to this sector until May of last year, so have tried to slowly build exposure on dips by taking a basket approach (MOH, CNC, UNH, CVS and CI). CI is a different animal given lack of Medicare and Medicaid exposure, so a bit of a hedge on the others, and I’m looking at UNH as a breakup candidate. The positions are sized such that MOH and CNC only make up about 20% in total given the higher risk profile, and CI and UNH are of similar size. We’ll see. Recently started building a basket in the payment processors, and then potentially on to software if valuations compress further.
  19. Back to buying UNH & CI
  20. This might speed up the process: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/occidentals-hollub-us-oils-most-powerful-woman-prepares-hand-over-reins-sources-2026-03-26/
  21. While I agree with this, I do think Berkshire has their oil investments at least in part as an inflation hedge on a critical cost inputs for a number of Berkshire’s businesses (think BNSF, Benjamin Moore, the chemical companies, etc.) Most companies hedge with costly options that they constantly have to roll and that generate no income. I’m pretty sure Buffett understands this and has found a better way. While I don’t see them outright acquiring OXY, I suspect they would encourage them as an acquisition target for a high quality company like CVX. At which point Berkshire becomes the largest CVX shareholder and generates income whereas other companies have a rolling expense on their hedges.
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