KPO

OxyChem was evidently his first. I could see him participating in an OXY acquisition, but by voting yes when Chevron acquires it one day.

More LEN-B, TLT

More RYN. Starters in FOUR, PPG and LEN-B.

TAP

A bit more RYN

More GPN & FISV. Initiated positions in HHH & TAP.

I agree with this, particularly the panhandle comment. Surface of the moon stuff, but given that it goes for this range and is generally not cash generative tells me there’s demand for a wide range of land types. >98% of their land is just cash flowing timberland, but there seems to be no value put on the 40K developable acres, the plywood and other wood products manufacturing, or the ancillary uses such as solar, which could be spun out or sold for over $1B by my estimates. We’ll see. Seems like limited downside here from my perspective, but I’m still building a position so am fine with short term declines.

The $9K is in rural eastern Kansas. Not timberland, but not exactly South Florida. The more valuable land RYN owns is in Washington, Idaho and FL. It’s definitely on average worth more than $1800. The lowest value land they own happens to be in AR and West Texas. I’d put it at $800-1200, and that’s using OK panhandle valuations I’m familiar with from over 10 years ago.

GPN

I haven’t posted on it, but similar to WY you’re getting cash flowing land well below replacement value for just under $1800 an acre at the current quote. There’s pasture land 25+ miles from where I live that generates barely enough to cover property taxes, yet it sells for >$9,000 per acre. So the simple thesis is it’s an inflation hedge and a better store of value than non-income producing assets like gold or crypto. It’s trading close to levels not seen in over 20 years immediately after the PotlachDeltic transaction, which will give them more scale. Additionally the combined company owns three MPC’s with total developable acreage of around 40,000, which you effectively get for free. This certainly isn’t JOE, but it’s cheap here against its own history and private market value of the land. Further, all of this is happening against a political backdrop where one of the only things both parties are actively pursuing is affordable home ownership. Much of the mortgage and housing friendly legislation being proposed can only help both companies. As an aside, I’m surprised a Malone, Gates, Ellison, Turner, etc. haven’t tried to take one these two out, as you’d be the largest land owner in the US by a wide margin with the stroke of a pen.

Thanks for the analysis. I agree. So if we go with the A buyback concept, once the A’s drop in share count by almost half you’ll have equal voting control between the classes in aggregate. Therefore one could exert substantial control by purchasing a relatively “small” amount of equity in relationship to the total EV. For this reason I’d expect the premium to widen over time. I realize this is a nearly useless thought experiment, but I do think it’s something Greg and the board need to have in the back of their minds as they execute share repurchases.

I have a lot of respect for your views after following your thoughts for probably as long as I’ve been on here. Outside of the Leucadia historical connection, what gives you comfort in trusting these guys? I looked at it recently after following for over 20 years, but now that it’s JEF it seems much more like a black box.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/berkshire-buyback-news-undercut-ability-repurchase-stock-cheaply-5d4e9c2e?mod=djem_b_Weekly Barrons feed for last 24 hours Not to nitpick, but this is what I was getting at last week. Another question this brings up is whether they would/should focus on A share buybacks in general to help stave off activists. If shares aren’t canceled who gets to vote them? I’m fairly certain the answer is no one….. until they get reissued. I think this might support a more material A premium as I’d focus intensely there if I’m Greg in order to cement control. @gfp what’s your take here in terms of this being a future activist blocker?

RYN

I guess I could look at this as Greg putting his shareholder alignment goals ahead of his desire to maximize his personal profits. Either way, this ~27 year Berkshire shareholder is happy to have someone of Greg’s ethical makeup and work ethic at the helm.

Starter in RYN

My point wasn’t around it constituting a lot of volume, but more around having an expectation that you’d ideally have leadership wired to be profit maximizers irrespective of the materiality. I don’t think you maximize by picking a single trading day every year and buy the stock irrespective of the current quote.

Agree with all of this as it seems unnecessarily promotional to go on CNBC and simultaneously announce a buyback that was already in place. Now we get to buy back shares at a higher price compared to simply buying and letting the news come out the next time we file a 10-Q. As for Greg’s purchases, I love the commitment, but why all at once and why message your future purchase dates? Just rationally manage the company and the equity value will take care of itself.

Listen to what he does, not what he says. The filing to sell KHC and the subsequent KHC announcement to pause the split may be an early example of managing Berkshire with sharper elbows. I think the company needs that now. I look forward to observing what Greg does in the coming year+.

Starter in FISV

They also likely don’t have to commute in the 17-19 mpg trucks most laborers drive, so that’s a modest offset. Sending this partially as a joke, but there are puts and takes. Will bored humans with UBI burn much more energy? That’s another one to consider. I like this general conversation.

I’ll bite. TDOC is one that’s been left for dead in recent weeks. If strategically positioned properly this is a company that should be on the right side of easing healthcare cost inflation. They also have both scale and a decent balance sheet. They just need to ease off the shareholder dilution of recent years.

HOG checks the contrarian box given obvious demographic headwinds, and below $20 it’s historically cheap.

A bit more PYPL

Relatively small starter in PYPL