Castanza

That always happens though in the maturing of the cycle. As rates move higher, lenders can accept more defaults and still end with the same, or higher, income due to the higher rates. Riskier loans means defaults get higher even if the economy is strong. It's not to say that there's nothing to worry about, but you can't just look at the data in a vacuum like that. I mean I get your point, but I'm not only looking at that data. I was just adding it to the mix. No defaults on cars probably wont bring down the economy. But If we hit a recession it will have some big implications. Especially when you look at how inflated used car prices are and how over saturated the market is. You have used pickups with 200k miles on them selling for 6-8k less than a new one. If we hit a recession, I think the auto industry will be one of the first to take a dive. It's also worth noting that if your willing to take out a risky loan on a 70k vehicle then that lack of financial aptitude probably carries over into other aspects of your life.

Retire by my mid 40's so I can spend my time working in the ecology sector doing what I enjoy instead of mashing keys all day behind a desk; all without worrying about 100k+ income (preferably make that up in divy's) Decent house (with a few acres for a vineyard or hops) paid off and maybe 1-2 rental properties probably back near my hometown and family. Cabin in Montana (With all the fly fishing gear I want) Sea worthy sailboat (Preferably a Catamaran but I'd settle for less :P) Full fledged dedicated woodshop ability to travel a few times a year (preferably on my sail boat) Independence and a nest egg for my future kids children. ___________________________________________________ I'm a simple man, not into cars, clothes, or being in big cities permanently. Guess I'm a bit of an old soul.

Subprime auto loans and defaults are also worth keeping an eye on. Strange how these rates are climbing in a relatively "good" economy with good jobs numbers.

Partially OT. If someone does a snowbird thing or just plans to live in one place more than couple months a year, AirBnB probably is not great. Also if they want to setup their house/place the way they like with their things/books/etc. OTOH, IMO upkeep is a hassle and that's why I would not want to have multiple houses and would go with frommi approach. 8) Multiple Condos with once a month maid service 8)

"However, some experts point out that expert systems were not part of true artificial intelligence since they lack the ability to learn autonomously from external data." It's funny that whenever we get a system to do things that computers could never do before we declare that it isn't "real" AI and we move the goal post further back. To some "real" AI won't be achieved until artificial systems can think, think about thinking, feel, love, hate, fear, not want to die .... I think it's more people are skewing what AI really is making factitious claims. It's no different than these companies that claim they've built an atomic computer. I don't think the definition of AI has ever changed and I don't think we should change it to meet technological short comings. All we are doing is processing more data faster. It can give the appearance of Intelligence, but is it truly intelligent?

"However, some experts point out that expert systems were not part of true artificial intelligence since they lack the ability to learn autonomously from external data."

That's not AI. That's a static deterministic model using ML algorithms within a bound set of inputs. AI can take inputs outside of the bounds and return a probability factor based on confidence. If-then or if-else based models are purely deterministic and only operate within the bounds of inputs determined by the programmers. Boiled down it's basically a decision tree with integrated ML. If you want to call that AI, fine haha but it's not "true" AI.

That seems quite "ballsy." How large of position did you take if I might ask?

I don't understand these drivers complaining about money. I mean, I have never seen Uber advertised as a full-time job. Commercials always show it as additional income when you have a few hours to spare. I drove for them while in college and some nights when my wife worked 3rd shift as a nurse. I was quite happy to have some "beer" money in college. If anything these people should be thankful Uber exists. It facilitates everything for them and gives them a platform to make some extra income. Nobody is forcing them to drive for Uber and they could go out and start their own private taxi service if they really wanted (my neighbor used to do with for a local Judge...made out pretty good). Society needs to stop trying to push these supplemental income jobs as careers. Bagging groceries, flipping burgers and driving for Uber isn't a career. We need to hold firm to this conviction, because out of necessity comes change. People will learn this and adapt if needed. Fun fact: also paid for the entirety of my honeymoon by donating plasma in college. But that's a story for another time.

Can't think of any pure online companies that are doing this. Personally, I don't see this taking off. Most online retailers use USPS for last mile delivery as it stands now. If I might ask, why are you interested specifically in this? interested?

http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2019/04/update-on-money-demand-currently-stable.html As always, Scott put out a few high quality posts this month. Regards

Curious on your thesis for shorting VBK?

Columbus, OH

Could you expand on this a little? Liquidity is coming almost entirely from the underwriting group, the issues are being priced at slightly below market (to evidence a marketing bump on issue), and underwriters are focused on volume (fees) - not quality. Get as much out the door as possible before the opportunity closes, and dump the inventory as quietly as possible. SD I see, definitely a good point. Ever since Venture Capital money has come into play, IPO's have been well, "disingenuous." These companies come out of the gates with massive valuations its hard to see how they are't set up for failure. Not sure if anyone watches the HBO series "Silicon Valley." But this show highlights some of these issues, such as being overvalued when you IPO. Also it's just a damn funny show.

Could you expand on this a little?

Even if we were to wait 1000 years for better sample sizes how accurate would the data even be? I'm not a fan of historical averages. I mean look at how the world has changed in the last 50 years. There are far too many variables in my opinion to draw any type of conclusion which would make me feel confident in averaging a 7% return. The time is now and whatever the return now is what we will get. I think putting more effort into real time vs historical time is far more important. But there still is value in terms of historical perspectives. Especially when it comes to policies, and psychological/sociological trends (Which can be hard to justify at times as well.) I'll leave this skyline montage to simply show how much places in Asia, SA, and the Middle East have changed. Certainly these have effects on today's economy compared to the early 1900's when the populations were low all over and countries were more nationally focused. http://the-technology-tips.blogspot.com/2014/03/20-skylines-of-world-then-vs-now.html

Greg, I agree completely. People shouldn't be thin skinned. But censorship wasn't the purpose. It was more to protect the sanctity and purpose of the forum to keep it from getting overrun like every other forum that has fallen due to this exact thing. But you're right, it's probably best to just ignore and move along. Regards,

Glad to be here John! In short I did not create this post assuming I had some democratic power haha. I am new to this site so my insight to the effectiveness of the political section is limited. The main reason I posted this was because I noticed a lot of people complaining about political posts and how they were beginning to bleed into other topics. Believe me, I am all for freedom of speech and freedom of opinion. But that doesn't mean a forum created for a specific purpose shouldn't be moderated. In the end I just want what the members want. Nobody seemed to raise the question so i thought why not? I was pretty excited to find this site as it seemed to be much more focused and had much more knowledgeable members than other forums. I get where you're coming from, but at the same time this forum isn't limiting ones ability to partake in free speech elsewhere. Politics certainly have a big influence on our investments and in an earlier post I said it should be completely fine to have political discussion if it relates to investing in some way. But I hardly can see how discussing Jesse Smollett would affect my investments. I don't think it's a bad thing to have a place void of political discussion simply to discuss investments. Viking had a good point. It's not easy to handle. But you have to weigh the cost benefit. In the end, I don't have strong opinions one way or another. I can see both sides to the argument which backs up the difficulty of the situation. As John pointed out this isn't a democratic forum (I guess?) but at the same time you think some people (long time members) would have a say. I think Sanjeev makes the best point as to why it exists. But I think it would be beneficial to have "politics" hidden by default so it's not thrust on new members immediately. Self-policing is probably how I will move forward regarding my interactions. Again, to all I don't want to cause any "angst." Just something I picked up on as a new member with a fresh view. Regards

That was my thought at first as well. And politics is easy to get sucked into. I think having the thread kind of pulls you in. But I wasn't here before so I cant really say and I trust what others say about it being better now. I think at the very least the "Political Section" should be hidden from view as a default.

Be willing to spend 100 hours analyzing 50 different companies and at the end of those 100 hours be willing to walk away without taking a position. I see a lot of people who feel obligated to open a position simply because they put in the leg work. In other words, don't let time spent doing DD emotionally affect your decisions.

$HCLP $SLCA After 2015 fracking ground to a pretty sudden halt in the Marcellus and Utica shales. This was primarily due to prices, storage capacity, and logistics. Oil prices are projected to rebound and increased regulation is helping natural gas begin to shift back into the limelight. This time around the target is the Permian shale basin. And this time around the big boys Exxon and Chevron are getting heavily involved. Northern White Frac sand is still the gold standard. HCLP and SLCA are well positioned for the influx of drilling ahead. The key to this game is logistics. Being able to get the sand where it needs to be when it needs to be there at a reasonable price. Both companies have pros and cons. HCLP has done a good job in my opinion developing their silo system (and has signed some big contracts). This is a unique advantage over competition. Personally I don't love the financials of these companies. HCLP just recently converted to a C-corp which hopefully helps them get better rates on capital (which I'd rather they not borrow and use FCF). But as well all know these a boom and bust industries. I like the management at HCLP and they have been very strategic and direct about their projects. A few articles i found interesting. First one is a few years old but very informative. https://www.aogr.com/magazine/frac-facts/permian-driving-frac-sand-supply-shift https://seekingalpha.com/article/4250935-hi-crush-partners-hitting-paydirt http://www.petroleumconnection.com/digest

I've thought about that. I mean, what the hell right? The worst they can say is no. Which is the most likely situation.

Well "you" basically can't. Bonds are a very cloudy market and the brokers like it that way. Really the easiest way would be to get access to a Bloomberg terminal. Doesn't that info have to exist as public information somewhere? Just spit balling here.....not super familiar with corporate bonds, but it seems "transparency" would be required by the SEC? Maybe someone else can speak to the legality side of this?

I think the Finra trade data comes from actual trades reported by brokers and dealers so I think it is highly accurate. There is a also a screener with it which is decent. Not sure about pulling raw data but I think the site is meant for small users as they don't want people pulling 20 pages of data all at once. Inefficient if you ask me. How does one go about getting info from brokers and dealers?

I've used Finra but I've heard that it isn't always accurate on the prices. Also I'm looking form something that I can pull the raw data from and use as I please. Where does finra get their information?