Castanza

My impression is that wide moat companies like MSFT, as well as Big Tobacco have actually done very well after being subject to intense regulatory scrutiny. Ditto for the Ma Bell breakup. I was wondering if anyone could think of any counterexamples.... Also, it has come to my attention that I neglected to finish giving this thread a title. Oops. I think this is exactly why FB is embracing and basically begging for govt regulation. It's easier to drive when you know the road ahead.

LOL...laughed way too hard at this. But I concur.

$MO - added a bit

Interesting article https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/17/foreign-purchases-of-american-homes-plunge-36percent-as-chinese-buyers-flee.html

It's also a historical index of your life events. It has symbolically replaced scrapbooks and baby albums (to an extent) The longer it has been established the harder it will be for people to leave all that behind. I think there is a sense of effort from the user perspective. The idea that you're building something to be able to look back on has value in and of itself. But let's not forget 2.5B active users....that number alone is insane.

I think the odds of Goggle, FB or Amazon getting broken up is slim to none. There are plenty of search alternatives out there (DuckDuckGo if you value privacy). When Zuck called out the government and openly asked them to regulate them it came across to me as an impossible challenge. I like Mark Cubans response. https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/07/12/billionaire-mark-cuban-on-breaking-up-big-tech-facebook-and-more.html

I think you're underestimating Facebook and its importance to society. Smoking cigarettes is also unappealing to most smokers. Yet they are addicted and can't quit. The figure always changes, but it's something like 65ish% want to quit but don't. Not a perfect comparison as traditional cigarettes are declining. But Vaping is increasing. But I'm trying to highlight the addictive nature of FB and social media.

This would do wonders to help people grow up. Personal sacrifice has taken the back seat to "me too" - to the detriment of the country. How do you strive for a tougher society when institutions are continually removing the toughness factor from everything. Gym class, Boy/Girl Scouts, everyone gets a trophy, lower military standards, the anti-traditional male propaganda, rapid decrease in person to person interaction, safe spaces, coaches getting fired for yelling at players, continual glorification of obesity, etc etc.

Much if the US power grid is 2nd world standard at best. Wooden poles leaning over until they fall down, transformers that look they are from the 60’s and high voltage lines strung and cobbled together are the norm. I list power last winter in an apartment I rented for a week. However on the plus side, electricity is fairly cheap compared to Europe when you get it. Most larger industrial facilities have multiple power connections for redundancy. Which just goes to show how massive infrastructure projects could easily increase productivity. Would be such an amazing positive economic investment. What is the US currently missing? The one thing I can think of is mobile network and wifi capability. But this is already really good. Especially when you think about how big the US is geographically. And in the high population areas access to these services is already good. Practically everything needs upgrading. A few examples in this thread. Another one: http://t4america.org/maps-tools/bridges/overview/ "68,842 bridges – representing more than 11 percent of total highway bridges in the U.S. – are classified as “structurally deficient,” according to the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). Structurally deficient bridges require significant maintenance, rehabilitation or replacement. A number of bridges also exceed their expected lifespan of 50 years. The average age of an American bridge is 42 years." I get that, but the majority of those highways and bridges are still being used regardless. It's more about safety than efficiency. Now if we're talking about adding new routes and lanes sure I get the efficiency/productivity argument. It's like companies who are still running Windows 8. Yeah there is a better product available; but can you justify the cost with the marginal (arguably zero) productivity increase?

Much if the US power grid is 2nd world standard at best. Wooden poles leaning over until they fall down, transformers that look they are from the 60’s and high voltage lines strung and cobbled together are the norm. I list power last winter in an apartment I rented for a week. However on the plus side, electricity is fairly cheap compared to Europe when you get it. Most larger industrial facilities have multiple power connections for redundancy. Which just goes to show how massive infrastructure projects could easily increase productivity. Would be such an amazing positive economic investment. What is the US currently missing? The one thing I can think of is mobile network and wifi capability. But this is already really good. Especially when you think about how big the US is geographically. And in the high population areas access to these services is already good.

I share your long-term enthusiasm given the evolutionary (and cooperative) nature of humanity, despite the negativity and divisiveness that often oozes from online exchanges. The other day, I was discussing with my daughter (studies software engineering) and she was explaining how it was becoming possible to detect when an exchange was about to become abusive (previous behaviors, nature of the exchange, words used). This is quite similar to discussions around the dinner table but online exchanges lack non-verbal and other cues. Some people have tried to use bots during Twitter exchanges that would introduce empathic comments at opportune times and it seems to work quite well :) Also, in-group discipline and posts leading by example seem to be helpful. Back on topic, what is perhaps surprising is the relative low frequency of power outages given that the City That Never Sleeps sits on the oldest and largest underground network of electrical wiring and connections in the world with some of equipment (5 to 10%) dating from the 1880's, at a time when Edison himself was 'playing' with electricity and contributing to the debate about the direct and alternate current. Maybe the timing is good with ultra-low interest rates for major infrastructure upgrades but progress is being made as, a few years ago, Con Edison moved from reactive maintenance to preemptive or preventative maintenance using modern statistical tools and even machine learning in order to, for instance, predict where and when the next manhole fire or explosion will occur. But more work needs to be done. An interesting feature about the redundancy principle is the fact that the City of New York is presently negotiating a long-term electricity supply contract coming from hydro power in my jurisdiction. Of course, the political message is centered on the 'clean' energy aspect but diversification of inputs may also be helpful for secondary prevention of power outages and help the grid be great again. How does the frequency of outages NYC compare to other large cities? I guess it depends on how you look at the situation. If you're a civil engineer you're probably thinking "These people have no idea how messed up this system is and difficult it is to keep this city running." but the citizen is thinking. "Why can't the power company just do their job!"

I did spell it that way on purpose on case anyone was wondering :P But you are probably right. Media definitely exaggerates real life. But there certainly are differences. However some of those differences are for the better (racism). I think humanity and our ability to communicate in personal ways is going downhill. It seems like most people don't even know their neighbors. cAstanza

One of my favorite episodes of twilight zone is The Monsters Are Due on Maple Street and it hits on this theme. I have a home in the mountains so Im kinda use to prepping for things like this for longer times than normal as its not uncommon to have roads be block for extended amounts of time. The thing that scares me most about society today is the general lack of kindness or willingness to help. People during the depression for the most part tried to be respectable and held each other accountable. People back then seemed to work more for the collective. Sure, selfishness has always been a general theme of humanity, but today people are me me me me me. And we get small glimpses of this during natural disasters.

Yup the older cities in the US certainly have more issues. Especially as population grows. Philly is also a mess.

Not to derail the topic, but I was talking with my Grandfather about this blackout (Who was a kid/teen during the depression). He raised the question of what would it look like in these cities or heavily developed areas if we truly hit another depression. People are so reliant on modern day tech, systems, and processes. How many people still grow gardens or have any type of fallback for things like this? I love visiting cities as much as the next person. But I'm certainly glad my wife and I recently purchased 10 acres to build a house on. I'll get off my soap box now :P NYC does need to get their infrastructure in check. And this is coming from a Pennsylvanian :P

Yeah, I agree with you that Castanza's post is all over the place. It conflates all sorts of different issues and games (Diablo Immortal hasn't even been released yet!) in ways that are not productive. The ATVI thread has lots of clear thinking on the video game industry in general. If it were up to me (and it's not) I would confine all video game related posts exclusively to that thread. Diablo Immortal is a huge disappointment before launch. They went against their entire player base by choosing to only launch it on mobile. That was my point. I recommend watching the Q&A. But if I'm wrong then I'm wrong. That's how I view the gaming industry and it's enough to keep me out of it.

You're quite unnecessarily snarky when discussing game publishers on this forum. I haven't claimed to be an authority in the gaming industry. Nor did I say the industry is dying...I said it's in a lull (sentiment and innovation wise). I think at some point $EA, $TTWO, $ATVI become attractive. But as with most entertainment industries, consumer sentiment does play a big role. I personally don't like investing in companies whos share price is heavily influenced by consumer sentiment. Most of the gaming stocks have been trading at pie in the sky valuations. They are only now approaching proper valuations (IMO) as their share price approaches what fundamentals might indicate. The "hype" is gone and the sentiment is absolutely affecting share price.

Discuss the video game industry as a whole. Consumer/company trends. Lots of stuff you got wrong in this reply... Free to play means consumers will hate it? 4 of the top 5 MOST PLAYED games in the US are free-to-play. In fact, only 3 of the top 10 are paid games at all. I see the statement all over this forum that F2P means loot boxes. It doesn't. League of Legends, Fortnite, CS GO, Dota 2 - all F2P and all monetized via cosmetic purchases, not loot boxes. And gamers love that stuff. Gaming industry seems highly fractured? Over the past ten years it's becoming increasingly consolidated, and likely will continue to consolidate as the gravity of the large publishers sucks in smaller publishers and dev teams. The top 10 publishers have almost 50% of the market share and that number is only increasing. Consumers are constantly disappointed with AAA releases? Red Dead Redemption 2 sold 24 million copies in like 6 months. God of War sold 10 million copies last year. There are some extremely highly anticipated games, some with new IP, coming in the next year or two (Cyberpunk, Death Stranding, Last of Us 2, etc). Frankly, sounds like you're just shooting from the hip on this response and haven't really done any work in the space. Fallout 76 Anthem The Division 2 Apex (dwindling) Watchdogs Starwars Battlefront 2 Destiny 2 Diablo Immortal Battlefield V Sea of Thieves Far Cry: New Dawn Assasins Creed whatever its called These games were also highly anticipated. EA has been developing Anthem since 2013 and it was pretty much dead in the water a month after release. EA earnings have been flat for 4 years. You named one or two successful games. You're also completely negating the relationship aspect between companies and consumers and dev teams. How many CEO's of gaming companies have we seen come out in opposition to their consumers the past two years? How many have we seen come out and admit their games were flops etc. How many issues have we seen between internal dev teams (acquired from elsewhere) and the company heads? Consumers are sick of the cash over quality mindset of the publishers. Releasing games before they are finished and then charging for DLC content that should have been included in the first place. Go On Twitch, YT, Reddit and all you will hear and see is negative sentiment (a bit anecdotal but still important). These platforms are quite important for advertising and generating interest. Yes there are successful games out there. Overwatch, LoL, Dota, etc. But I think you're missing the overall sentiment of the industry (and that's what I'm focusing on). Red Dead 2 launch was great and they sold 24 million copies but how did the stock do? It dropped like 11% on good news. Publishers seem like they are resting on hype of the old standby title names (FIFA is 40% rev for EA 2016). COD sales were pretty good and broke the downward trend we have been seeing since 2011. But that's most likely due to the battle royal approach (how long will that last?). If video game companies are doing so good why are they listing AAA games 50% off months after release? Franchise fatigue is real. Look at the stocks of these companies. They have been in free fall for awhile now. The question is are you comfortable buying at this level? I'm not. "Free to play.....meaning loot boxes and other in-game purchases"

Sold to close Aug 16 $17.5 calls at 76% gain. Could be more upside but I couldn't pass up 76% gain in a matter of 15 days. Might buy in again if there is a pullback.

I'm sure the British thought the Patriots/Rebels were lefties when they sought independence...thank goodness for lefties! Cheers! No one is stopping them from leaving and colonizing somewhere else! Most of the lefties run all of the tech companies...you would be left with only Twitter. And you would have nothing to ever watch again on television other than Fox News and 100 Huntley. Cheers! 1.) The British were the lefties. The Patriots were escaping socialistic policies 2.) The world would gladly move on without Google or Twitter. It's funny that all of these "crucial" software companies built their products in the most capitalistic free market system. But indeed, a day to reflect on the history of this very young nation. All of the sacrifice, hard work, human ingenuity, and progress. Only a handful of generations ago it was formed and she is no doubt a work in progress. It will be interesting to see where we end up in 50 years! Happy belated birthday!

Picked up some MSG too this AM at~$271. I am not sure what caused the sudden downdraft , but noticed that MSGN is doing even worse, is this team related? The Brooklyn Nets just signed a few super stars that will likely draw crowds there. Could possibly have something to do with that. I imagine, Durant and Irving will draw quite the crown in NY. It's been awhile since there was a true NBA superstar in the city. That being said, I'm long MSG. The Knicks are too iconic and so is the stadium. MSG is to America what the Colosseum was to Rome. https://gothamist.com/2019/07/01/kevin_durant_kyrie_irving_headed_to.php

As someone who thinks the government shouldn't forgive student debt or give out guaranteed loans to 18 year old kids, I agree with what you're saying (as a first step). We need to move away from this for profit, sky rocketing education cost model that has been ushered in by government. The best way as you pointed out would be to incentivize certain careers. One, I don't think government loans should be given to students unless they meet strict GPA and SAT scores coming out of HS. Two loans should only be given for students who are pursuing STEM careers. Perhaps even do a census and give loans to the top 25 career field demands. Three in order to keep receiving the ability to take the loans out students need to have strict GPA requirements (depending on major) to meet. There needs to be terms for a major change as well. Limit them to changes within the top 25. All of that being said I don't think that is a permanent solution. It will create a lot of division and issues if done for a long period. But it is a step in the right direction. I think the best process forward is to start introducing apprenticeships in high school. If a Junior in High School has a good inclination for math and engineering then have a course which allows them to work at a local engineering firm for a few hours a week. Not only does this teach the kid real life work vs study, it gives employers good insight to potential candidates. I bet a lot of these employers would be willing to give out scholarships (with terms) if they had a kid they really liked. I also think that apprenticeships could be used as a path to a career directly out of high school without needing a college degree. I mean how many careers are out there that really don't require a whole lot of education. Maybe they require a certification or something that a local employer would be willing to train and test their apprentice on. But there are TONS of business jobs that shouldn't require a degree. We need to bring value back to k-12 education. Not diminish it by making a bachelors degree the new high school GED. We also need to bring value back to a bachelors degree. Not diminish it by making masters degrees the new bachelors. I mean it's quite ridiculous...The issue is employers want to know if a person is smart enough to do a simple job....But we are using a bachelors degree as a checkbox when that is not its intended purpose. We already see this hypocritical attitude and standard in the business world. Look how many people run successful businesses with just a high school degree. Look how many entrepreneurs there are with only a high school degree. You mean to tell me those same people need a 4 year degree from a state university to manage a Sherwin Williams?

Lance, I always find your positions quite interesting. Do you use IAU as a hedge? Hi Castanza - yes, I do. I’m concerned that rates are headed lower, particularly between now and the election. I already hold a large position in TLT and don’t want to add to it (will opportunistically take this off if rates continue lower). Also I’m not comfortable shorting the indexes even though they seem overvalued here. Thus, IAU it is. Thanks Lance Thanks Lance, appreciate the response.

Lance, I always find your positions quite interesting. Do you use IAU as a hedge?

I’m reasonably sure most of them will spend it on their liquor of choice within a day or two. But you can't be sure. And that's such a specific example lol. Anyways. I agree with Stahleyp in terms of euphoria. granted I wasn't an investor during the 1999 bubble. But I have done quite a bit of reading on it. Same with the 1983 video game bubble. To me it looks more like we might have localized bubbles within specific markets (think tech subscription services and SaaS, auto industry). I do think a lot of the hype simply is being expresses with "the changing of the guard" so to speak. What I mean by that is the rapid influx of millennials and other young investors entering the market. This demographic communicates much differently and it very much driven and motivated by trends and fads. I think it's easy for this generation to latch onto IPO's etc. and then blast it all over social media and other outlets. I think a bubble does exist, but I don't see it at 1999 levels where everyone was throwing every last penny at basically every company that launched.