Castanza

Do all the other refiners, chemical plants, etc. outside of the Middle East run at 100% capacity? I understand the bottleneck is oil, but IF some supply say a few percentage points can be made up from other markets why can’t the refiners or chemical producers not also scale up a few percentage points if they are not running at 100% capacity? Perhaps an ignorant question but I haven’t seen it mentioned anywhere. I’m of the mindset that people are good at solving problems and unknown solutions generally pop up to unexpected interruptions.

Yup and they have the pending litigation issues. I’ve added to AJG mostly but I’m pretty full up on insurance unless we see a significant decline from here. More potential catalysts to the downside in this market.

Very true, love his policy or not, he's one of the more genuine politicians we have had.

Gonna add that saying to the holster

Dems can't ever accept that Trump is just a life long grifter from THEIR SIDE OF THE AISLE. They want to label him with one of the groups "on the right" they already hate. They're like used car salesmen trying to offload the lemon. End of the day Trump is for Trump and will say, and do just about anything that he feels is an advantage to him. They also want to blame the election on MAGA even though it only makes up like 30% of the voter base for Trump....fact is the political field in the US has been a shit show for over a decade now and people just want someone to blame. Go back an look at Kamala's platform....Makes a whole lot of sense to run on higher taxes, land right for for poor and indigenous people, and LGBTQ bathrooms while bringing ZERO productive policies to the table that would resonate to the average voter. All while inflation was on everyone's mind lmao .....Her and Trump were slightly different on Ukraine and had similar platforms on Israel. Dems out here wondering why Trump (a prof grifter) was able to sway a bunch of swing votes...If you want to understand election outcomes you need to ignore the educated pin heads and look at what the average person is saying. Hind sight is 20/20 and some claim they "predicted this" yet very few people who voted for Trump support half the shit that has gone down since the election.... A lesson for America to field better candidates....Or we can just keep electing criminals, grifters, whores, and vegetables

Convicted felon is still different than convicted murderers

Yup, I figured that was implied sentiment otherwise that timeframe can obviously flex up and down depending on your financial situation.

What sensible person would want to helm this shitshow?

Ha! I was waiting for this response (believe me I don't like Trump having access to that button either). As bad as Trump is, he's not driven by an ideology other than "me me me." Not sure pushing that button brings anything positive for him.

First and foremost....DO THE BASICS WELL. Ignore the Siren of outperformance...30 years from now you will thank yourself. The further behind you feel the more likely you are to take bigger and bigger risks and the chances of permanently impairing your capital position goes up only digging your hole deeper. If you need to scratch that itch then maybe don't max your 401k but leave a small allowance for stock picking in a brokerage or IRA. I see quite a few peers in their early 30s with next to nothing saved in their 401k, no IRA and a day trade portfolio full of meme stocks. Meanwhile life gets busier than ever in your 30's (and expensive). Bandwidth gets stretched and judgement impaired and you're one bad trade away from having your future self 30 years from now rehearse in the mirror "Welcome to Walmart." Goes without saying but get your personal finances in order too.

Perhaps it would be more productive to recognize that MAGA has co-opted the Christian religion (as many have in the past) to further a political agenda. The co-opt is called American Christian Nationalism and is a well documented phenomenon. Similar to not lumping the Iranian people in with the Iranian regime I think it is a sensible approach. It would also be more productive to maybe ask the question..."Dear Christians of COBF, how do you feel about Trumps use of Christianity for his personal agenda?"

Shit...my constraint is generally not enough capital to invest...I'll be damned if I'm going to take my meager FCF and put it into t-bills at 4%...

@LC this

It does not take a Western centric view to come to a conclusion that Israel and Iran are not the same. I do not hold view that Israel is historically innocent. But one nation has a top down view of "Exterminate the Jews" while the other nation has a view of "This is and has always been our land and we would like to keep it that way." These are not equivalent frameworks and have very different implications in the real world. Apple to Oranges (better?)

And Bill Ackman is Warren Buffett

Yes I would disagree. There isn't a nation on earth that has not committed a "war crime." During the Vietnam war the US had to stand up brothels overseas to keep the GI Joes from raping the local population (which they did). Ukrainian drone operators have been engaging is cruel, inhumane, and demeaning actions on Russian soldier before executing them. Does this mean Ukraine should not be allowed nukes in the future? Should the US also give up nukes? The standard of what constitutes a War Crime is untenable and unrealistic. It ignores the very nature of conflict and is a fools attempt to regulate the laws of the Jungle to a spreadsheet. "War is Hell (for everyone)" The litmus test is simpler: Israel did not acquire its nuclear arsenal in order to project "Death to all Muslims" outside of it's borders. The same cannot be said about Iran...

The same reason a convicted felon is no longer allowed to own a firearm ... common sense...

Maybe Iran took them … Operation Safety-Pin

Curious… as we approaches atm again did you make any portfolio changes or take advantage of the volatility?

People overcomplicate the last few elections. Have we not just flip flopped back and forth with increased outrage culture and increasingly circus like politicians? Trump 1 (asshole but the market performed...then covid...) Biden 1 (Something familiar, but a bit long in the microwave), Trump 3 (Ya know, I liked those market returns from Trump 1. Sprinkle in some "Murica Hell Yeah!" slogans and some more ass kissing.....oops)..... Who's next? My guess is a Dem that will have to spend a lot of time ass kissing global bureaucrats to repair relationships. They will probably spend the first few years of their term trying to rollback any Trump policies and executive orders by simultaneously utilizing executive orders which will then trigger the "Right" which will label them as a flavor of the month "ist" and lay the foundation for the next election. The two party system really is a vicious cycle...

One of my best investments ever in such a short timeframe...sold the majority wayyy too soon though.

I'm not sure Chamberlain or Churchill are relevant when dealing with terrorist states. We've known for 20 years that terrorism is here to stay. The question is, how do you keep it at arms length? The question the west and developed world need to answer. Economics does not matter to ISRG...they do not need billions to bring the world to a standstill. Terrorism IS effective and the cost to those carrying it out can be little...

It's just hilarious to me that the idea "new info came to light" is an impossible scenario to many. I mean we saw Iran break out three different weapon systems that we didn't know they had. I don't think it's inconceivable to come to the conclusion that possible, they were closer to a nuke than some think. Regardless, you cannot allow a theocratic regime that has spent the last 40 years being the number 1 sponsor of terrorism globally get even close to a nuclear weapon. Now people want to spin it "they are more incentivized now! See it's a fail!"...they cannot separate their personal bias of Trump and how this went down and the results we are seeing. The world is complex and not black and white. The SOH may be a permanent impairment moving forward for the Western World and much of Asia....but obliterating Iran's military, and other strategic targets also could be a permanent benefit moving forward. Both can be true and I find it sad that people cannot hold more than one view. Slam dunks don't exist in the real world. Hence my comments that people are borderline supporting these terrorist regimes out of spite for Trump. I agree, I don't like how it went down, it was unconstitutional; but I'm able to look at the results and find some good in it. We are playing the game whether we like it or not. It's like people forget the world they benefit from is the world they actively root against. Be careful what you wish for....

What? lol what is up with these terrorist state sympathizers…. Maduro was a garbage human being and had an arrest warrant. He’s not the first leader this happened to. Gadaffi was the last I believe. The IRGC is a theocratic terrorist regime. They deserve to be removed from power. Lebanon is basically a terrorist nation state as well run by Hezbollah, same with Gaza… Perhaps you should change your perspective from “big bad USA coming to take oil” to “the US is removing terrible leaders so the countries have a chance to move forward”. Trump is Trump…asshole…but he’s temporary. Alliances are not dead because you scratch my back I scratch yours is more important than feelings. Once Trump is gone bumps will be taken, bruises will heal and the Western world will move on. There isn’t a choice, unless you prefer to align with China? I swear some of you guys would be bitching about the allies and showing support for Germany and Japan post WWII…

Yup, the UAE has the model to follow. I think it’s obvious that there are too many economies of scale affected by this conflict that something will have to happen to ensure peace moving forward. Not a fan of how it started. Not who leads the charge moving forward (clearly not over), or holds the reins long term. The regime still lives and will be a problem. But at the end of the day, money talks!