Saluki

Interesting discussion in here about the FTX bankruptcy. He bought a bunch of the claims against them based on the valuation of their prior investment in Antrhopic and turned about $2mm into $15mm. Interestingly, some shady person sold one of the claims twice. The hedge fund wanted to split it with him, but he said no. In law school, you learn that this is called the "race to the courthouse." The first guy who files will get 100% and the second guy will get 0%.

The option thing is a good idea so you don't tie up capital. I'll make a mental note. I'm not using margin now, but when I was I was overpaying (9% or so at Merrill and 12% at Schwab, which is criminal), so I reactivated my Robinhood account which has slightly lower margin than even Interactive Brokers, and have been moving money there a little at a time. So if I have a position that is flat at ML, I'll sell the ML shares, buy the RH shares (on margin) and just move the funds to my bank then to RH. I don't want to do a partial transfer because when I tried that RH tried to port over ALL my positions, and I called and cancelled it. I've been interviewing a lot lately and if I start a new job I may get less risk averse in my trading. And if so, lower margin rates are a good thing. And my guess is that with this administration, the market is going to be a bumpy ride for the next few years. (Walmart says they will raise prices from Tariff pressures by end of month, so consumers will start noticing the effects).

David Einhorn and Samantha Maclemore bought Seadrill this quarter. Oil is in the dumps and the offshore stuff is usually the last to go up. Am I missing something?

VALARIS caught my eye because I've been hearing about it for years. A friend of mine had a big position before it went bankrupt, and now he has warrants that his common was converted into. Then Kuppy was talking up his book on this after bankruptcy a while back. I don't know. This stuff doesn't have the same scrap value because a ship is just steel, but offshore stuff is tech with deteriotes quickly. And if you warm stack this stuff, it might cost like $80k a day when you aren't using it (that's what it costs SFL to maintain Hercules) but want it ready to deploy at any time. If you cold stack it it's cheaper but it takes more time to deploy and the majors might be put off by it because when it's not in use and there is minimal maintenence it becomes a huge safety issue. Feels like it's too hard and your outcome depends on what happens with oil. If anyone has thought harder about it and wants to chime in, feel free to chime in here or on the Valaris post, but probably too hard pile for me.

https://www.dataroma.com/m/stock.php?sym=VAL#google_vignette Pabrai and Third Avenue bought Valaris. I hate the offshore drilling stuff, but who knows.

Ah I see. I was thinking of it as RTX = Raytheon. Since Collin and Pratt do both commercial and military stuff, do they pay tariffs on all of it, or just the non-military portion?

On their conference call, OPTEX said that they expect no impact from China tariffs because defense companies are exempted from paying tariffs. If that's true, why is it affecting Raytheon, but not them? Anyone know about this issue?

Every time I try this it bites me in the ass. A month ago I harvested tax losses in my early Coupang shares. By the time 30 days hit and I could buy it back it was $26

These tariffs will wreak havoc on US defense contractors for 2 reasons. One is the bad feeling towards US firms because of the current administration, which should help firms like Rhinemetal get contracts. The other is obviously the tariffs will increase costs for tech heavy defense companies. I had a starter position in a tiny company called Optex that is the sole supplier for some optics in Howitzers and Bradley fighting vehicles. It was cheap, no debt, and had big inside ownership, but if they have to pay 150% more their stuff they are buying from China to make their optics work, then it's not going to be able to fulfill military contracts at an agreed price if their inputs are going up massively, but their revenue is going to stay the same.

Apropos of current events, we watched "The Conclave" last night. Really well done story telling. They really captured the weird dynamic of people jockeying to be selected Pope, but pretending to be not interested in being Pope, because "Ambition" is a disqualifier for the position. If your competition is older "at his age can he handle the stress. If your competition is younger "does he have the experience?" and a lot of rumor mongering.

It used to track heavilly with Gold and that's why conspiracy theorists and people selling newsletters pumping silver claimed that it was being artificially manipulated down for years non stop. The truth is that there is some industrial use for silver, but most of it WAS for developing film and when that all went digital so did most of the industrial demand. If there is some new use for it, like Solar panels, and that is increasing, then maybe it will have a comeback. Who knows? Too hard pile.

@brobro777 and @Red Lion , I early retired in December. I am not looking to open my own law firm or anything. I'm doing some Pro Bono stuff which is fun and rewarding. The adminstration is throwing hand grenades at my portfolio, which sux, but I'll be okay. I'm trying to transition to something with green energy, but have had some interviews for banking legal jobs, which I am more qualified for. I'm the world's worst interviewer, but I'm getting better I think. Had interviews for banks in London, NYC and DC and didn't get offered, but I have a 2nd interview this week with another bank, not in DC, but I hope I can negotiate the location. The other interviews were for stuff that I could do, but weren't right in my wheelhouse, like equity derivatives, but this current interview is working in compliance for rules that I drafted, so I think I'm good. But the location might be a deal breaker. We'll see.

Since leaving my job I have been de-risking and doing more selling than buying, but I bought a little JOE today and had been nibbling on VG, EPD, ET in small amounts.

What's interesting is that it's probably preferable to seeing a physician. Studies show that women get prescribed painkillers about half as likely as men for the same symptoms. There is a discrepancy by race too, but not as bad. An AI that is gender or race neutral in dealing out diagnosis and treatment sounds like a blessing. Also, a lot of Drs stop learning after medical school which is why it takes so long to get rid of old ideas like "ulcers are caused by stress" or "eating fat causes heart disease". It's in old medical textbooks and new doctors learn it isn't true, but old doctors never get their software updated. But AI is always updating. I don't know about therapists though because I've heard that people try out several before they find one they like. So if there is a one size fits all, then maybe not, but if it knows about you and your personality, then maybe it can adjust it's approach?

I don't have a lot spare cash laying around, but I bought a few shares of EPD and ET and I'll keep adding if it stays where it is.

While I agree that volatility does not equal risk, it's not a tautology. If you need money for your kid's college in 10 years, then the volatility between now and then is not relevant, but if you need it next year, it is. And what about those Argentine bonds that defaulted, but gave a better return (because of the steep discount at purchase and recovery) than US Government bonds? What if they (or a stock) will have a rough 100 years (like Berkshire) then recover when a young activist in Omaha sets his mind to fixing it? You don't have 100 years and neither do I. Since I left my job, and I periodically have to trim my portfolio, the volatility does create exposure to sequence of returns risk, and since I don't have a steady trickle of paychecks, it's not as easy to take advantage of the market swoons without using leverage. And since bear markets can last from 1 (2020) to 10 years (the 1970s), leverage is not something that I can use responsibly.

I've been pretty good about avoiding looking at my brokerage accounts the past few days since I don't have any cash laying around to buy stuff. While the big names like Meta taking a pounding are scary, the smaller names have really lost most of their liquidity. I wish I had a bunch of cash and was smart enough to figure out how to take advantage of the chaos. Here is the bid/Ask for Taylor Devices: Bid x size/exchange $12.70 x 2/NASD Ask x size/exchange $50.42 x 1/NASD

After Longmire was dropped from Netfilx on January 1, a friend told me about Dark Winds, which has a similar vibe. It's set on a Navajo reservation in the 1970s and it follows the police chief as he solves crimes. Apparently it's based on the Longhorn and Chee series of books, which I hadn't heard of until I watched the show, but George RR Martin is one of the producers, so he is a fan of the books, apparently.

I managed to not look at the market at all until after the close so that I wouldn't get stressed out and make a bad decision. In order to keep me busy and not be tempted to log in to my brokerage account I was doing a bunch of research on facts and figures, because "math is truth." I pulled a lot of the stuff into a video and posted it because I was done before 4pm and the markets were still open. FYI I haven't looked at the markets today either.

https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/reprint-the-protectionist-road-to-depression-deja-vu-all-over-again/ Interesting and with lots of graphs, which are better than arguments.

This was a really fascinating book that sounds like the Donny Brasco / Joe Pistone story, but more. After the Donny Brasco infiltration the Mafia was a lot more guarded about letting people who they didn't know get close enough to infiltrate them. But Jack Garcia, who was Cuban, not Italian like Pistone, was able to infiltrate the Gambino crime family and become the right hand of a powerful mafia Capo. How powerful? It was Greg DePalma, who is in the infamous picture of Frank Sinatra surrounded by Mafia members. The man next to the man on Sinatra's right is Carlo Gambino. The man on the far left is Paul Castellano. Sinatra has his arms around two men. The one on the left is Greg Depalma. What's fascinating is that Pistone grew up in the area and spoke Italian, which made it easier for him to fit in and be trusted. Garcia was Cuban, from Miami, and had to be taught the mannerisms, like wrapping your cash in a broccoli band instead of using a wallet, and how to pronounce Italian dishes "mannigot, not mannicotti". He quickly gained DePalma's trust, was given a pinky ring by DePalma to signify that he was officially "on record" as one of DePalma's associates, and eventually proposed for membership , to become "a made guy", in the Gambino family before the operation was ended. What makes the story even more amazing is that Pistone was in deep cover and that was his only assignment, but Garcia didn't have as much support from the FBI higher ups and managed to achieve all this while still working other cases involving drug dealers, counterfeiters and money launderers, while juggling many cell phones and answering in different names with different fake identities. A really fascinating story that deserves to be made into a movie. https://amzn.to/3FLwfk0

I recently left my job in financial derivatives and I'd like to work in green energy. Prior to my last job, when I worked at a law firm I had experience in M&A with energy such as utilities and natural gas/pipelines, but not renewables. If I wanted to be taken seriously, what things would I need to know in renewables to bridge the gap from working on fossil fuel stuff to renewables? And if you were in my shoes, how would you get past the first AI filter and get an interview if you didn't have recent experience in the field? I have some ideas, but I'd like to hear other takes. Thanks.

On Friday, I was assigned on 3 puts I sold of SWBI. At these prices it looks okay, but I sold the shares and may sell a few more puts. I don't have the common, but I do have some calls. Very small adds to VG and XIFR.

Thanks for the kind words. I was having a bad day, but it's nice to see that people appreciate humans trying to help other humans

I put these things together in case it helpful to anyone here who is working at the Federal Government or knows someone who is and is worried about losing their job. I include a checklist at the end that was very useful when I was getting ready to early retire to make sure I had all my ducks lined up in a row. Feel free to forward or copy paste anything that you think would help someone you know. Working at an agency covered by a collective bargaining agreement. If you work at an agency that has a union and is covered by a collective bargaining agreement, speak to your union representative. It’s free, and because you have rights in your collective bargaining agreement that may be greater than those that exist in the regulations governing other federal employees, you are in a different, better position. Agency not covered by collective bargaining agreement. If you have a unique circumstance that places you in danger such as being a probationary employee, recently transferred or promoted, or being politically targeted like DOJ lawyers who worked on January 6 cases, you should seek out an employment law firm that deals with federal employees and book an hour or two of their time to discuss your issues and get advice for gathering evidence to protect yourself. There are lots of employment law firms that will take your money but the rules about federal employment are specialized and you don’t want a dabbler. I’m not recommending any particular firm, but rather a type of firm that specializes in representing federal employees like the ones below. I don’t get anything for recommending these firms, and I’m including three names so that it doesn’t look like I am giving you one name and telling you they are good. I am not saying go to any of these 3, but find a firm like these that do only (or mostly) these types of cases. https://www.attorneymahoney.com/ https://fedpractice.com/meet-our-team/ https://www.fedelaw.com/washington-dc-federal-employment-attorney/ No money for a lawyer: If you are worried about being laid off and don’t want to pay for two hours of a lawyer’s time but still want some answers to very basic questions, not just hear scary stories on the news, this is what I would do. I am NOT an employment lawyer, so I don’t know the answers to a lot of the questions people have, but if I did want to know, these are the resources I would use, if the ones above were unavailable or unaffordable. LEGAL BOOKS Federal Employees Legal Survival Guide, 3rd Edition by Joseph V. Kaplan (2014-05-03) This one is very thorough at almost 700 pages. It’s $92, so it’s priced like a textbook, but it’s probably my first choice, and I would split the cost with a co-worker if necessary. https://amzn.to/3DejU70 FedWeek's 2025 Federal Employees Handbook This is about ⅓ the size of the other book at 250 pages and it’s only $20. It obviously doesn’t get into as much detail, but I bought one of these when I first joined the government (out of date now). And it’s a decent resource that everyone should have. https://amzn.to/4h2yVqn YOUTUBE Channels: Besides the scary news channels, there are a few that are very useful. Fedsmith Channel: Very detailed channel by lawyers and financial discussing federal rights and benefits for employees and retirees. They have been providing content for years on these topics and have been putting out one or two videos and articles a day trying to keep up the dumpster fires as they spread. https://www.fedsmith.com/ https://www.youtube.com/@fedsmith This one is mine where I will be talking about some of these issues: https://www.youtube.com/@iamnotyourlawyer These other two are general news sites devoted to the federal government and contractors, but not necessarily focused on the workers or retirees: https://fedscoop.com/ https://federalnewsnetwork.com Checklist to Prepare for Leaving Government Service: Bring home personal effects Family photos Diplomas Don’t rely on them mailing it back Schedule Leave and Comp Time or Time Off Awards if you are leaving voluntarily. Annual Leave is paid out after you leave Comp time is paid out too Time off Awards are Forfeited so use these first Sick Leave is Forfeited but may be used to increase your “time in service” calculation if you are eligible for retirement. Will be restored if you re-hired with the federal government, even at a different agency. Download: All your SF-50s (especially first and last, but get all of them to be safe) Contains paygrade and title, bonuses etc. Your Entire EOPF File Be sure to save the secret password that it will generate for the encrypted PDF as that is the only way you can open/view it. Leave and Earnings statement Latest Performance Appraisal Any W2s that you want Proof of FEHB Health Insurance coverage5 (in case you return to federal service to show that had FEHB for the 5 prior years) Passwords/Personal Email. Make sure you have access to TSP.gov and Employee Express or MyPay.gov with your personal email Copy email and Phone Numbers for key people: HR Direct supervisors Your direct reports References Decide about Health Insurance: TCC Temporary Continuation of Coverage ACA Affordable Care Act coverage through spouse Decide if you want a refund of FERS contributions Probably not for FERS Possibly for FERS-FRAE Understand Ethics Rules about post-government employment. (e.g. with government contractors) Change TSP Contributions: Keep 5% contribution to keep employer match but use the rest as a cash buffer in case of layoff or contribute to a ROTH IRA or ROTH 401k, so that you can withdraw your contribution, if needed, without a tax penalty.