lnofeisone

You are right. Saying "so far there is none" discounts new cases and they need to be accounted for. I also agree that additional data is needed to make this a more convincing case.

@Simba Journal of Infection is a real thing and has a Wiki. As far as the images that look like MS Paint, that's a function of the software used simulate the analysis (looks like ICM-Pro). As far as reconciliation of the data you see in the wild and the results published in this paper there are few things to keep in mind: 1) Authors presented a study that is a simulation based on thermodynamics (Gibbs free energy minimization). During my grad school days I've done probably north of 10,000 experiments based on simulations and only a handful turned out as predicted (7 to be exact). Thermodynamics are great predictors of what should happen (or what is permissible) in the long term but the intermediate pathway is not a concern for TDX and is a field of kinetics. The example most should be familiar with is graphite/diamond. Thermodynamically stable form of carbon is graphite but it can stay diamond for a very long time. 2) ADE is a thing and these authors are pointing out that, if simulations are correct, it's something that can occur (it's thermodynamically feasible). The article is stays very clear of being alarmist and prognosticating that this will occur. I agree with @Viking (and data showing by @RichardGibbons), an uptick in hospitalizations and deaths of vaccinated population (which so far there is none) would be an indication of ADE.

Summary: The Treasury Department will begin a debt-issuance suspension period on Monday and will suspend investments in retirement funds for civil servants and postal workers. The funds will be made whole once the debt limit is either suspended or increased.

This sounds right. Either you own your own space or the local economy doesn't permit draconian rent raises. For undergrad I went to school upstate NY where economy was slowly deteriorating and real estate was/is abundant. Terrible bars but they remain open today because landlords can't raise prices. I just pulled up Google reviews and people today comment on sticky floors in one bar I went to. Funny enough, when I was there 20+ years ago, the floors were also sticky. For grad school, I went to a town that was growing rapidly. While I was there, the 3 bars I frequented the most have changed/evolved. I think one of them had 2 changes of ownership while I was there. All 3 were packed in the evenings and on the weekends. As far as the revenue between 11am-2am...seems very far fetched. In my experience, college town bars with dining space convert to lunch spots during the day but I can't imagine that being terribly profitable.

Bought some KWEB and UNG puts.

You are right SD. Seems like the top 20 have restored their shut in wells around Sept of last year. Maybe there isn't whole lot of slack so the oil price is here to stay. 100% agree that big oil will resemble big tobacco. Not going anywhere for a bit but will look different.

tldr; there is plenty of oil and it may take few 6-12 months to open up shut in wells. I'd expect, any price increases to be transitory and would use that as an opportunity to further reduce my energy holdings. I think this is a stretch. Specifically " A lack of capital investment in finding new supplies of oil and gas." There is still a massive overhang of shut in wells, just in the US. The interesting part will be to learn how effective were different shut in strategies that companies used as there is no real data on long-term impact on shut ins across different types of wells (in a nutshell, when you close the well you risk damaging reservoir and you never know what you will find when you open it back up, especially if you close the well for a long time). For example, PXD went with "The Company continues to proactively curtail lower-margin, higher-cost vertical well production in the current commodity price environment, benefiting operating costs." https://investors.pxd.com/news-releases/news-release-details/pioneer-natural-resources-company-reports-second-quarter-2020 Exxon closed higher producing wells. Add Russia and Saudi capability to pump more, and I am not convinced there is shortage of oil to be had.

bought some ELAN, MIC, and JBGS

The cost declines are real and it's great to see. Two things to keep in mind when it comes to these curves: 1) ITC - this one is easy. NREL shows a good chart showing the impact of ITC. 2) For homeowners, PV is a phenomenal proposition as they are getting tax-free energy and tax-free SREC sales. I live in DC where local utility net-meters (i.e., they charge me $0.12 for fuel + delivery for electricity and they must pay me the same when I pump into the grid) so I get substantial boost from tax savings. Similarly, because of the DC-specific market, the SRECs I generate go for $400/MW so I get that tax-free too. Without the ITC and tax subsidies my PV calculations are nowhere near what NREL or any other curves.

ESG investors really catalyzed the impact of O&G debt binge, which was not sustainable, especially in light of SA/Russia oil fight. That's all it took for O&G to find new financial discipline (all but ET). I had some VGELX but sold it and rotated into few specific names as soon as they announced that they will be buying utilities. It was poor timing for them too as they were selling off beaten down energy names to buy less beaten down utilities. Forward to today, VGELX is more of a utility fund (45% utilities now) with O&G kicker (25% oil majors and 15% E&P) that missed a monster rally in O&G.

I used EverNote and played a bit with Obsidian. It really depends on the use case you are going with. EN is robust, been around for a while, and is built for 80% of the needs you'll have, especially what you described. It's very use friendly and web clipper is probably one of my favorite features. At minimum, your workflow will feel easier and it will be simpler to search through documents. I also like the API and sync functions (which I think Obsidian now has too). Obsidian has a bit of learning curve, especially if you aren't coming from the coding world (i.e., if the .md in obsidian.md means nothing to you, you'll probably have some learning to do). They store files as markdowns so there are some advantages (e.g., you can link really easily and see spectacular connectivity of your data). After few months of dabbling with Obsidian, I resumed doing almost everything in Evernote.

Or there is a huge Federal incentive. The sustained marketing campaign blitz against O&G has been phenomenal. I think that created opportunities for oil and gas but in the intermediate to longer term (5-10 years) gas will outperform. No secret, energy is a large part of my portfolio (even more so if you consider solar panels as part of my energy portfolio). I have few regular names (KMI, ET, WMB, MPLX) and few sleepers. I think one sleeper that has slowly been fixing itself up over the last few years is TGP - nat gas shipper. It is boring (no more IDRs), projected to increase dividend, and it's a shipper.

trying to get a starter position in ZIP

Bought back ETH and ABNB starter positions.

I like this approach. When everyone is looking for gold, make shovels. I think this is the approach Amazon, Google, and Microsoft have taken with their platforms (AWS/GCP/Azure). I think going with this trio will likely give you fine results to capitalize on the AI revolution, even if you miss a few smaller companies that will be 100-baggers.

I think CRAI is riding the wave of COVID work and bump in all the work that came with it. There is a very healthy backlog of work as municipalities, states, countries are looking for specialized support. CRAI doesn't really compete with TYL or BAH and they have specialization moat that the likes of PWC, EY, and Deloitte are unable to overcome mostly because Audit/Tax can't talk to consulting and all consultants are basically kids out of college that know how to do Excel/PowerPoint but no other real skill.

I've been tracking TYL for a while looking to buy but shy to pull the trigger at these valuations. Few comments: I like software that they have in place. That will provide a stable revenue/profit base for years. However, I think their margins will start compressing and there will be opportunities to buy it cheaper. Maybe 50% cheaper than it is today. TYL bought Socrata in 2018 and the platform is clunky and somewhat outdated by 2021 standards. Underinvestment in R&D clearly shows. Partnering with AWS is nice but really is not distinguishing. AWS will partner with anyone as their margins are close to 90% and they sell AWS and don't have to worry about the low margins on services. In many cases AWS will partner with several vendors bidding on the same contract and just go with the winner. ACN, BAH, Deloitte et. al have been making massive inroads into state and local. State and local in the US is not a sophisticated buyer at all (as compared to the Federal gov't) and high margins are very common. This naturally attracts competition. ACN has been extremely aggressive at developing and partnering to develop pseudo-products for digitization (and digitalization), modernization, etc. Deloitte has been somewhat aggressive buying innoWake few years back. The buying cycle is about 1-3 years for state and local so I think 2021-2022 we will start seeing results of other consulting firms entering the market. If I remember correctly, ACN partners with TYL but that's an interesting relationship. Some of the other partners are low quality staff augmentation shops that only exist because of all the small business requirements. At some point, low staff quality shows.

Bought some BABA, PCYO, CIBR, and a tiny bit of AYX.

sold LMND puts and all ETH.

This. + 1) KNOP will do a secondary and I expect it to drop to 18 or below. I've been a KNOP nibbler sub 18, and KNOP buyer sub 14. 2) KNOP seems to always get beat up with oil even if they aren't exactly correlated with oil 3) I've been very overweight in energy. Wasn't great for me for most of 2020. 2021 is a different year. I still have few energy names (TGP, WMB, KMI, ET) that probably have more room to run than KNOP (maybe not ET. Spek was right 2+ years ago ) so I can still participate in the energy rally but in a more responsible way.

Selling MPC, CEQP, SWN, and some WFC. Getting close to unloading KNOP.

This (as C+PV(Strike Price) = P + Spot Price. In either case, put/call parity is a theoretical exercise that is mostly applicable to European style options and wouldn't readily apply to Tesla. The exception being that you would hold options to expiration and in that case you have to navigate points 2 and 3 that Richard outlined.

Sold Creswood preferred and rotated into CEQP (albeit a bit late) @26.40. Bought some DISCK@34. Thanks Wabuffo.

CLMT (this one really came back to life and is higher than pre-COVID with likely more room), MPC, SWN. Cutting my energy holdings by 30% or so.

I clocked in around 11% for the year and I'm up that much in the first 10 days. Got really pounded by my energy concentration and WFC (which made a strong late comeback and is up remarkably in January). Got bailed out by AVLR, ZM, TSLA, and ETH.