lnofeisone

Take this from someone who is sitting in a significant position in VET that is roughly 30% underwater. 1) I don't think we'll really experience shortages anytime soon. Too much supply is available and it can be quickly replaced, especially if the price is right. 2) Oil is probably capped at around $100. Anything higher and EV starts to beat it back. 3) Oil is still going to be around 10 - 30 years from now but NatGas is the future for up to, at least, 50 years. 4) The sector is absolutely hated and that is not going to change. How am I playing this: 1) Excellent operators that strategically hedge, hedge, hedge. Take the price risk out and focus on execution. And I 100% realize commodity players should be price takers and would normally agree but in this instance, this is a commodity that's hated and being slowly replaced. VET's done a good job at it (how I wish VET would hedge more when the price on TTF jumped, but they had no cash for MTM). Peyto too. 2) Focus on shareholder return - debt, buybacks, dividends, in that order. MEG has done a good job. VET finally announced more serious buybacks. As these guys are soaking up 5% of their shares annually, it will start adding up. I've been opportunistically buying and selling around my core positions. I got a few that are profitable and I got a dog in VET that just won't turn around.

To me the question is really, will Jerome have to raise the rates?

I, too, find myself with this problem a lot. I find it helpful to sell puts, and if the company dips into my desired range, I take the assignment. This way the cash is earning something while sitting there idly and waiting.

Thanks for the info. I didn't realize Clark street was into this. I do think they will. $3.8 + CVR is probably the right price and it's a matter of timing.

I saw this one when I was looking into Mirati but didn't pay close attention. You thinking it will get done at $3.80? Seems like THRX is toast if it isn't and they had CEO and Med Chief depart which is a data point.

SAVE weekly puts have an insane premium. You can buy March 15 for $5 and sell weekly going to next Friday for $1. Just some food for thought.

I've been looking to park some cash for a little bit. What's your take here. Like most biotech, this one will most likely close? I'm looking at this one and MRTX. Thanks.

Had a bid for FRPH@55 that got filled.

RIP Charlie. He owns some of the funniest and truest statements. Lived life to the fullest despite all the challenges. Really showed what the polar opposite of victim mentality is all about.

I sold most of STNE, BN, MEGEF, and DB. Raised cash decent amount of cash and will wait for a pullback.

I think there is one like that already - YPS.

I should add - if you are going to do it in tax-free/deferred accounts, then you should go with taxable munis (I like Vogtle here). Tax-exempt and treasuries don't make sense in these accounts.

That's exactly right. If you (I) buy today, you get the 5% tax free + any appreciation will come at cap gains rate.

One opportunity I'm tracking is municipals zeros. Huge caveat: If you are in DC (as I am), tax exampt muni from any state is tax exempt. You may need to account for your state ore residence. There are few zerost hat have 30 years to maturity and YTW is 5+% (here is one that I have CUSIP 54601TAA4) . If you are in high bracket, that's roughly 7% pre-tax. Given the duration on these things, any interest rate movement down will net you cap gain. So worst case, you hold to maturity and collect 5%. Best case, there will be interest rate move down, and you get capital gain. Because it's a tax exempt muni, you don't have to worry about taxes on accrued interest. This one is callable in 2029 and if that happens you get 13%/year return at today's prices.

What happened here? Was it missed growth expectation?

I bought a starter in ENPH. Got a standing buy order for BRKB at 315. Let's see if we get there.

I agree here, though I have a hard time imagining constituents that use SAVE calling their congressman to impede the merger. I, too, have 0 interest in owning this but the premiums were insane a month ago so I put on a trade. On the "merger working out" side, I also have 2025 25/30 bull spread which I have in my Roth IRA. Incidentally, I used some funds from the sold puts to fund Roth IRA and buy the spread. If it works, out great. If it doesn't, I'm not going to worry.

Demonstration of force. Also, some of the US Citizens were kidnapped by HAMAS.

SAVE is an interesting one. I sold a decent amount of 15 puts expiring in Oct (I expect these to expire worthless) and November. I hedged by buying Dec 10 puts. At this point, I don't think there will be a the verdict by 3rd week in November OR we get a deal. In Either case, I expect Nov 15 puts also to expire worthless.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-16/american-work-from-home-rates-drop-to-lowest-since-the-pandemic#xj4y7vzkg

I looked at Bank of Ireland but the talk of windfall tax is a turn off.

Same. Sold some puts and bought some calls.

Yeah, not great. I usually start looking at this list around the end of November for any possible candidates for rallies. I feel there will be lots of tax selling in these.

Just be mindful that some of these have leverage and leverage works both ways.

I think "dividend growth investor apes" are selling aggressively today. I put a stink bid for NEE@30. Why not.