lnofeisone

Ha - just saw someone getting 100 (looks like a 90 and another 10 contracts) 7.5C at 1.90. I'm assuming it was you. Curious who is selling these though.

Tiny BABA starter.

Greg - great question. I work a fair amount with UI (mostly on the fraud side) and I see this a lot. Few comments: Let me start by saying that there have been a couple of UI studies done and they showed absolutely no cause and effect between UI (including increased Federal payments) and people going back to work. Most of the recovery has been in the lower payment band of jobs. If someone can point me to another study, I'd love to read it. As far as tighter labor markets, there is a confluence of things: 1) There have been excess retirement across the board in all job sectors for workers 55 and older (across college degree spectrums, i.e., no degree to advanced degree). Way in excess of what was expected (https://www.economicpolicyresearch.org/jobs-report/the-pandemic-retirement-surge-increased-retirement-inequality) 2) Most gains in jobs post-pandemic have been in the hospitality industry. I recall seeing that L&H lost about 8 million jobs (about 50%) and currently sits at at -2 million from pre-pandemic, so figure 70-80% of lost jobs have been recovered. This is a good place to look at the recovery. https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2021/08/the-recovery-in-leisure-and-hospitality-employment/ 3) Most jobs where you see help wanted are low(er) paying jobs with most not offering health insurance. So in essence, it's a high risk job with a low pay and no health insurance. If I am a child (or parent thereof) or a worker with an option such as UI, I am making a rational risk-adjusted decision and staying home. 4) Women without children was one of the strongest demographics to rebound from job losses but have trailed off. Women with children have seen a rebound (not as strong) but are now leaving the workforce. Likely the result of focusing on children's education, crazy hours demanded by employers, and having spouses earn enough to afford single income home.

Joining you all on the CLPR (7.5) and AIV (5) train via march options. Filled CLPR but waiting on AIV.

Sold 1/2 of the position at 0.75. Will ride the rest into expy. Unclear what's going on with TGP but it's uncorrelated with either shippers or natty.

Sold by ABNB. Just raising $.

Bought some super cheap TGP 17.5 nov calls 0.25. Lotto size position.

The original question was how much $ was someone getting. Rent is an expense so not paying rent it would need to be recast as "money not spent."

Those are the puts I hold

The general answer to your question is no. The average unemployed person gets nowhere near that. $4-$5k represents the top amount someone can receive in State + Federal support. Keep in mind, the range is from $0 to $5k and to get to $5k, you have to lose a job that would be paying more than that. Most unemployment insurance (UI) programs also have a limit on number of weeks you will be supported. To more nuanced answer to your question is - it will depend on the state/commonwealth where you are. Massachusetts has the highest rate for UI - up to $800/week or so but you have to lose a 85k/year job to get it. If you lose 50k/year job, you'll get about $500 or so. With CARES act Federal "bonus" was $600 but is now down to $300 so if you lose a $100k job, you will get about $1.1k/week or about $60k in unemployment. Arizona is bottom of the barrel when it comes to UI. I think they pay something like $250/week. With CARES act addition, you get to $550/week or about $26k/year, if you lose a $100k/year job.

We are about to graduate to the land of SUVs as well. 2021 VW Tiguan is our current front runner on practical and value. I don't believe there is a hybrid of it in the US. Others we tried are X5, Honda CRV, Kia Sorento, Nissan Rogue. X5 is my personal favorite but the price is holding me back. Nissan Rogue is probably the worst car I've driven in a long time.

Greg - I'd like to see that scenario. I'd be (pleasantly) surprised if PTON dips sub $100 and genuinely shocked if it touches May lows. Waiting for people to turn rational has been a fool's game for the last 10 years.

i think strong market is propping up PTON today. I was expecting/hoping for a bigger drop.

Bought back a starter of KNOP and some UNG puts.

As someone that dated girls in south Brooklyn (Seagate, BB, and Manhattan Beach), Manhattan Beach is where you want to be. Brighton Beach is like APTS...the potential/value is there but the management is taking their sweet time to get where we all want to end up.

I don't know if I would call the results published in the article bs. I think this is one of those things where it's helpful to distinguish probability and outcome. The article just shows a possible pathway. It doesn't assign probabilities to that pathway. There is clearly another pathway, i.e., unvaccinated people getting delta. So if you assign 0.001% probability to former and 99.999% to the latter, you get closer to the observations you see in the real world (i.e., most dead people are unvaccinated).

We really liked Atypial. The last season was meh (felt like writers lost focus and had too many stories they tried to develop) but overall very solid.

sold my KWEB and UNG puts.

You are right. Saying "so far there is none" discounts new cases and they need to be accounted for. I also agree that additional data is needed to make this a more convincing case.

@Simba Journal of Infection is a real thing and has a Wiki. As far as the images that look like MS Paint, that's a function of the software used simulate the analysis (looks like ICM-Pro). As far as reconciliation of the data you see in the wild and the results published in this paper there are few things to keep in mind: 1) Authors presented a study that is a simulation based on thermodynamics (Gibbs free energy minimization). During my grad school days I've done probably north of 10,000 experiments based on simulations and only a handful turned out as predicted (7 to be exact). Thermodynamics are great predictors of what should happen (or what is permissible) in the long term but the intermediate pathway is not a concern for TDX and is a field of kinetics. The example most should be familiar with is graphite/diamond. Thermodynamically stable form of carbon is graphite but it can stay diamond for a very long time. 2) ADE is a thing and these authors are pointing out that, if simulations are correct, it's something that can occur (it's thermodynamically feasible). The article is stays very clear of being alarmist and prognosticating that this will occur. I agree with @Viking (and data showing by @RichardGibbons), an uptick in hospitalizations and deaths of vaccinated population (which so far there is none) would be an indication of ADE.

Summary: The Treasury Department will begin a debt-issuance suspension period on Monday and will suspend investments in retirement funds for civil servants and postal workers. The funds will be made whole once the debt limit is either suspended or increased.

This sounds right. Either you own your own space or the local economy doesn't permit draconian rent raises. For undergrad I went to school upstate NY where economy was slowly deteriorating and real estate was/is abundant. Terrible bars but they remain open today because landlords can't raise prices. I just pulled up Google reviews and people today comment on sticky floors in one bar I went to. Funny enough, when I was there 20+ years ago, the floors were also sticky. For grad school, I went to a town that was growing rapidly. While I was there, the 3 bars I frequented the most have changed/evolved. I think one of them had 2 changes of ownership while I was there. All 3 were packed in the evenings and on the weekends. As far as the revenue between 11am-2am...seems very far fetched. In my experience, college town bars with dining space convert to lunch spots during the day but I can't imagine that being terribly profitable.

Bought some KWEB and UNG puts.

You are right SD. Seems like the top 20 have restored their shut in wells around Sept of last year. Maybe there isn't whole lot of slack so the oil price is here to stay. 100% agree that big oil will resemble big tobacco. Not going anywhere for a bit but will look different.

tldr; there is plenty of oil and it may take few 6-12 months to open up shut in wells. I'd expect, any price increases to be transitory and would use that as an opportunity to further reduce my energy holdings. I think this is a stretch. Specifically " A lack of capital investment in finding new supplies of oil and gas." There is still a massive overhang of shut in wells, just in the US. The interesting part will be to learn how effective were different shut in strategies that companies used as there is no real data on long-term impact on shut ins across different types of wells (in a nutshell, when you close the well you risk damaging reservoir and you never know what you will find when you open it back up, especially if you close the well for a long time). For example, PXD went with "The Company continues to proactively curtail lower-margin, higher-cost vertical well production in the current commodity price environment, benefiting operating costs." https://investors.pxd.com/news-releases/news-release-details/pioneer-natural-resources-company-reports-second-quarter-2020 Exxon closed higher producing wells. Add Russia and Saudi capability to pump more, and I am not convinced there is shortage of oil to be had.