ICUMD

Googl, BNS

So Omers is very much participating in Fairfax India. Wondering what their game plan is for extracting value from this company? At some point, they will need a market valuation and liquidity or buyout to realize gains. Are they sitting with a preferred position relative to retail shareholders? Is there anything I'm missing?

I'm curious to know how much Fairfax would offer in a privatization scenario. I suspect it would be less than BV. Maybe $16/share?

In my simplified view, no. My primary focus is in always trying to increase cash flow throughout the economic cycle. Either through dividends or debt repayment. In other words, cash flow is paramount. Inflation and rising interest rates simply change where you get that yield from. Further, I think rising interest rates increase the risk of market shocks. So, the hope is to add quality equities with high dividend yield down the road.

Great idea Red lion. I enjoyed my trip to Kaui years ago and love Hawaii climate. Where did you go to shop resale timeshares? Any recommendations for specific timeshare condos in Kaui and Maui?

My play book: Guaranteed attractive returns are in paying down variable debt in rising interest rate environments. And taking on debt in low interest rate environments to invest (conservatively).

If population and population growth have anything to do with economic activity, then India is entering the golden age. Both India and Elon Musk are populating the world. OTOH, my optimism has yet to be validated. And, I'm no Elon.

This used to be my car. Wasn't my style, but the price was right. I later learned to love the color- never lost it in a parking lot. Really stood out against a sea of black blue and white. Was never in a crash. Repair bills were a pain tho.

What about if you only get the first two, but not the last one? Or perhaps the last one occurs so many years down the road that you've lost out on the opportunity cost? This is a well performing and managed company IMO with excellent underlying assets. However, only large scale transactions seem to realize value (ie closing the gap to NAV) which are majority owner buybacks by Fairfax. And those buybacks are not guaranteed and when they are offered, are heavily discounted to book value. To me that's the Value Trap. There is inadequate price discovery on the day to day trade from multiple buyers. I know Buffet would often look for these value 'net net' companies, (I'm not implying that FIH is a net net company) What I don't know is how do you realize value in these rare birds if there is no buyer?

Ah good ol' Toronto! During a 10 yr span living and working there, I thought Toronto was THE place to be. A combination of work place politics in TO, better job and pay, the chance to live in a home on a lake without traffic, took me to Northern Ontario. Do I miss TO? Paradoxically, I enjoy it more. A 1 hr inexpensive plane ride lands me downtown TO. I walk to my condo (purchased in 2002), now kept as my pied a terre. Eat, enjoy friends company, see a show and come home. Financially and practically, I've escaped the 'Toronto Tax'. For me, the frictional costs of traffic, dealing with overbearing people at work and expensive homes were ridiculous. I accelerated my possible retirement by over 20 years by investing my excess income (rather than paying a mortgage), formed much closer friends in a small community and have unparalleled access to nature. So do consider alternatives. Big city life is not currently a value proposition IMHO. (Unless you bought tons of real-estate in 2002).

Unfortunately, mark to market value realization in this company will likely come through Fairfax initiative to do large scale buybacks. I sense there is very little foreign buyer interest in the holdco and this is not yet traded via Anchorage on the Indian exchanges. It's really a play on the Bangalore airport with a smattering of other holdings. The discount to book value we see now could last a very long time IMO. A classic example of a value trap.

Thanks all for the kind wishes. It's an incredible experience to be a father to this extremely cute baby. For me, my work has become part of my identity. I think it would be hard to walk away regardless of income. I wonder if culture these days is shifting towards early retirement due to increasing wealth in general. Perhaps it is the status of the privileged to say - Hey! I'm retired. Regardless, for me, while the idea of 'freedom' seems tantalizing, I'm satisfied doing most what I know best and dabbling a little in what I know least, for now. Seems to work for me both in life and in investing.

I'm 46. Probably could have retired 5 yrs ago. Enjoy work, so plan to work until at least 60, granted I may reduce my hours before then. Just had my first child 6 days ago - a baby girl- so there goes my retirement plan.

Nice article on future development plans at BIAL https://www.newindianexpress.com/states/karnataka/2022/aug/08/phase-1-of-bengaluru-airport-city-to-open-by-2025-2485210.html

I'm no China analyst, but if one thing is apparent, it's that China wishes to dominate politically, economically and militarily. I think their key companies like BABA Tencent etc need to do well for them to achieve this goal. They are a means to and end. Regardless of what challenges they face, I doubt they will be stagnating for the next decade. Applying western capital rules to an Autocratic government may be the mistake.

I like this balanced viewpoint on China. Ultimately, I don't think Autocratic societies will thrive in today's digital age over the longer run since people ultimately value freedom and stability. Seeing your friends in other countries enjoying a comfortable life while you work 996, will become a more difficult sell to your people as prosperity grows.

Viking, don't disagree with your logic. OTOH, it seems that there is a lot of political and manipulative factors at play here. Sometimes logic and price don't follow simple supply and demand rules. But, I am a logical person. So I have a significant holding in Suncor.

China has been at 'Battle' with USA for 20-30 years on many fronts: economically, technologically and now with governance. USA has just wisened up to this challenge. Pelosi's visit is a political test of boundaries and reaction. Just like Russia is testing NATO resolve in the Ukraine. Give an authoritarian Muppet leader an inch and they will take Manhattan.

Not sure about that. As a superpower, there is an inherent responsibility to take care of all people. Not that USA has done a great job in this regard, but it is a very culturally diverse country with many visible minorities in positions of power- business and politics. OTOH, I'm highly skeptical that China's government will protect the interests of the non Chinese. Racial diversity in government and high level business is missing. I think there is a problem with the China model.

Thanks for sharing this. No doubt China has made tremendous advances through its authoritarian government. Global and esp US economic interests have essentially promoted China to this power. Hard to blame Xi for looking out for Chinese interests. Hopefully the world realizes that humanitarianism and cultural / territorial respect ultimately need to be prioritized above economic gain. In other words: be careful who you do business with and who you think your friends are.

I'm intrigued by the fact that so many Chinese people are engaging in 'Mortgage Boycotts' This seems like a behavioral change of non obedience that could threaten the banking system if it becomes contagious. I had been under the impression that Chinese people feared the government and were essentially bound by their rules. Maybe times are a changing...

Actually, you'd be in my neck of the woods. Literally. Moved to Northern Ontario 10 yrs ago from Toronto. My 'cottage' is now a condo in downtown TO. My home is on Lake Superior. 15 min to the US border and 1hr flight from downtown Toronto. Can't beat the lifestyle here IMO. No traffic. Low cost of living = more disposable (or investible) income. I was actually laughing reading a recent Macleans article on the headaches of the ultra rich in the Muskokas. Unlimited access to nature - boating, fishing, camping, skiing (yes, even downhill), world class mountain biking. You name it. For cottages, consider Batchewana bay/ Montreal Harbor area.

A nice overview of Aviation prospects in India. https://m.economictimes.com/industry/transportation/airlines-/-aviation/as-traffic-picks-up-aviation-sector-charts-expansion/articleshow/92774641.cms

No doubt! Some people will jump into marriage at first glance of an attractive partner. Not all marriages work out. Crypto certainly has a monetary value right now (19k for bitcoin). It's the future value I have yet to see a convincing number. For bitcoin, sure I'd buy some sub $100. But then I'd only be dating. Not married! As far as currency, I'd personally still rather own a few onces of gold at current bitcoin prices.

There is an important difference in gambling, crypto and value investing. If you believe in value investing, it is possible to evaluate profitability, valuation, quality etc and place a bet on price direction. You can be wrong, but iteratively you can learn and improve. Great examples of this Buffet et al. Gambling is a completely different strategy, depending on the game. Learning and repeatability is probably more difficult to consistently get correct. Crypto has yet a completely different set of rules. Maybe the rules are still being written? Few understand it yet many players in this arena. Lots of good evidence to play what you know best.