Gregmal

What are you looking to prove? Ted found Ukraine bullish for oil?

You’re talking different definitions of it then. Rule of law, politics, corporate location, all no brainers to almost exclusively invest in America, regardless of the next COVID case count, CPI reading, or recession. There’s folks who buy mining companies in Africa that trade publicly bc they’re “net cash”. You couldn’t give me one for a penny.

Not really. It’s been his philosophy since he started 9 million years ago. You know how many 10-20% fluctuations we ve had during that time period?

Bet on America is a long term secular call. Much different than guessing the next 6 months, which yes, Buffett tried doing with COVID and get totally wrong. Go figure

I mean if you can do the high level macro shit that’s one thing, but I’m largely just speaking generally about the average investor. 95% of people I’ve seen(just look at the topics and their timing on places like this) just look the flavor of the month news theme and think that’s macro when really their just chasing theirs tails and falling victim to the psychology. I mean look at the “inventory, wages and rates” stuff? Huh? You don’t say? Where were you on the macro 6 months ago? What good is knowing that stuff now?

Just a quick search, but he says it all the time https://www.cnbc.com/video/2014/10/02/we-dont-look-at-macro-factors-buffett.html trying to invest while fretting the next 10-20% direction is probably one of the worst things an investor can do.

Investing isn’t really that hard. Whats hard is processing all the noise. If you are comfortable buying individual stocks, just look for shit you’d have no problem making a private investment in. If you are reacting to day to day prices swings or macro whatever you wanna call it, you’re doing it wrong. This isn’t even my advice, it’s the crux of what Buffett has been doing and saying forever. He openly admits to not giving a shit about the index or macro or whatever, just look for good businesses or assets and if you are comfortable, go for it. You own a home right? Can you imagine the stupidity of trying to monitor the day to day market of it? LOL hang your head it probably went down 3% today. Or woohoo happy hours on me today the indicators say my home is up 6% this month! Dumb, pointless, and energy consuming. I generally don’t even look at the indexes except to hedge, but imo they’re probably still overvalued because they are so heavily weighted in the high multiple tech stocks. You know how many product managers have to turn in their performance reports soon? I’d gander we get a bit more, perhaps another wave of widespread index associated selling. But again, is that something to really fret? Basically everything that occurred over the last 12 months or so should equivocate to nothing more than a general run of the mill 15-20% correction. Except we had the whole COVID boost which inflated the peak so you probably wanna wipe that 10-15% off certain general areas of the market as well. So I’m basically in Sanjeevs camp that 30-40% is the new 20%.

I mean if we really want a “reason” for all this, here goes. The governments interfered with the world in response to COVID. They shut shit, made doing normal stuff illegal, and paid people to do nothing. The stock market became a gambling house during this period. The vaccine reminded the world Zoom and Peloton are not $100b companies and Amazon is great but 60x ain’t acceptable. Last year the shit popped but the value crowd took the bag to hold on big tech because they felt dumb missing it the last decade. When the easy returns stopped, people decided it wasn’t good to own a stupid ticker symbol they know nothing about. All of the ones who got that wrong also likely ignored the discussion on rates and inflation, ALL of last year. Now this year, they need a reason why they were wrong and of course it’s because of inflation because obviously car prices and 2x4s are never going to come down in price. But then they do so we need to rinse and repeat the same exercise with anything temporarily effected by the Russian situation. Of course, the market will never adjust. In response, we need to Fed to take drastic actions to curb things those actions will not really address. We need to beg and plead for sanity by taking measures that encourage a recession. Then we need to scream about the perils of “OMG RECESSION!”….all creating self fulfilling feedback loops. No matter how much the overpriced “index” comes down, we need to keep yelling, “JUST GETTING STARTED!”.

LOL I don’t know why but this really makes me laugh because it resonates. Hits the nail on the head with a sledgehammer. As a rule of thumb the last year, assuming I’m not buying something with a negative value angle to it, IE office REITs or some shit, or conversely a major positive fundamental shift, the approach I’ve been using is to look to 2019 numbers. Went through it with Brunswick for example. What’s wrong with shit normalizing? Or PCYO…ok so if homes revert back, 30-40% decline in sales prices, they trade roughly at 2018 prices, when shares were 25% higher….big whoop. But no, the bear crowd needs to use “plummet”, crash, falling apart! It’s so hilarious because it’s all about psychology as was just mentioned. It’s about creating a rush and a panic. Fuck those people. If you, like with AIV, underwrite to 2019 cap rates and rents….it works. But we are significantly higher than that on both front and will still be even in we see things “fall apart” lol. This is the kinda shit people need to tune out. Is it the end of the world if Google again trades at prices it did a few years ago? Maybe to some…not to me

The guy is brilliant and real world useful as evidenced by his doctor status. A lot different than most of the money guys who went to the expensive club schools and did crew and then “landed” their rightful high earning job. He is also largely using his own money, far different than most as well. I just don’t think you can really extrapolate or emulate much of what he does because it’s a very different style and you don’t know the variables he s using to implement it.

Hasn’t this occurred a few times throughout the course of history? A few probably being an understatement. That’s just part of the cycle. Worrying about it after shits already gone back a healthy bit is one of the more counterproductive things I see people do. Last year seemed like such an obvious top, and it was happening in real time, something a few people discussed but most ignored. Same with rates rising. Same with inflation. fundamentals started going south then, like with Amazon and same with Netflix. Not worth even getting into the much shittier tech stuff. It was happening with the big ones too. So the imbedded lesson being that people say they worry about the fundamentals but in reality only seem to react to stock price movements.

I mean if we need reasons dont we have them? Covid bubble burst first. Then a war that is relevant to us; IE big bad Russia and people that look like us. Then inflation, I mean no one cared until a couple months ago even though the bulk of it already happened last year. Fed hiking a few % isnt gonna do it either but that's also an easy "reason" many cling to. The next 2 quarters I think will tell what the Fed impact is. Up til now though they haven't even really done anything. After that then its E. All the above are normal ebs and flows of the stock market. Except you had years of people doing crazy shit and then we gamified the stock market and sent people stimulus money to play so they had something to do while they were locked in their homes during covid; even the "smart" hedge fund/value investor guys gave in and bought tech just cuz. Just when it was clear the covid blowoff top thesis was playing out to the T. No one is talking about how many funds have blown up or are getting liquidated. But as Ive said before I think most would just be wise to let everyone else worry about "reasons" and just focus on investing. Worrying about what the Fed will "say" isnt investing. Being scared of "what if the stock market goes down!" isnt either. If somebody simply saying something (hedge fund guy, politician, stock promotor, etc) is enough to throw you off the horse you probably arent doing enough of your own work. And if simply being able to handle seeing stock market volatility is enough to scare you off, you definitely shouldn't be in the market. Buffett says this all the time, why is this one area the one where folks choose to ignore his investing advise?

ABNB

RE, especially big city landlord stuff, is classic elite rich folk territory. So on one end, its where all the lobbying dollars come from. Look at VNO and how they operate in NY. But on the other hand, politicians and especially elected ones know that its much easier to cater to the renters vs the landlords, simply because of the population mismatch between the two.

Burry doesn’t really invest. He’s an event driven/catalyst guy.

Agreed. I own it, but Rick Wheeler is the worst. You’re trading at a fraction of book, with cash and RE maybe covering $4-5 of the share price, and even Biden begging for more drilling now, it seems only a matter of time. This is a company easily capable of nabbing mid 8 figure contracts. One of those and the stock probably doubles. But until then Ricks negativity and lack of communication skills plus technical dynamics of sub $5 stock, sub $100m market cap…all weigh to the negative.

I think the biggest takeaway is to just be mindful of the bigger picture and where all the incentives are. Then find a place you are comfortable investing your “excess” in. Everyone is consumed with the noise and the story of the week/month/year….every year it’s something. The folks who were obsessed with COVID are now doing the same with inflation. Got a 3-5 year horizon? You’re ahead of the game and shooting fish in a barrel.

Idk man but actually living and working through the last ten years, there were an awful lot of people poo pooing everything, whining about the Fed, touting cash and gold, and sitting on the sidelines. Some even spent a lot of time shorting. You got rewarded for taking risk, that is hardly something for nothing. Big difference vs hoarding in a savings account saying “pay me”. This is a classic case of how everything is obvious in hindsite.

Coming out of something like GFC, you wanted to encourage investment. It’s necessary to revitalize everything. I have trouble feeling sorry for folks who had a decade to see this, and instead insisted on getting something for nothing. I mean even now it’s spoken of as a given, and it’s oh so obvious, but….show of hands? Who bought tech, ponzi, crypto, biotech, etc and capitalized on the last decade? Lotta folks missed it.

Yes, why would someone think they got screwed if they were told what they were getting into ahead of time. And then refused to live in the world they were told they were living in? Seems like they just got it wrong or worse, chose to be wrong, on the allocation front.

Why would a saver be pissed though? No one is entitled to returns. How is that any different than someone feeling entitled to a return on their stocks? Especially if you were told early on, that there would be no interest? It’s such a weird thing I’ve heard over and over. Savers got screwed. I should have been getting interest. A “tax” on savers. Huh? Ever hear of capital allocation? If you were told rates would be low, who’s fault is it really?

I agree CPI is a joke. So why are 90% of market participants hanging on every monthly report like it’s life or death? Classic herd behavior. Remember when every uptick in COVID cases meant 1,000 points off the Dow?

Slightly different take than what most here are deepthroating

The average between 2011-2020 was like 1.3%

How bout now? Boom