Gregmal

Case in point on the "meme" stuff...NVTA today. Day traded the squeeze a little from the pool but thats one where retail idiots got washed out ages ago. This move is all those clown fund hedge fund guys who overstayed their welcome recklessly shorting.

KRUS. Long live the consumer.

Nah. By the time it does the market will be significantly higher. How many times do we need to see these things play out? Contrary to population wisdom, when there’s a perception of greatest uncertainty is when you have the biggest margin of safety. I’ll sell my stocks to folks when CPI hits 3

It’s almost as if they waited to release the “Inflation Reduction Act” on us until they knew the numbers would ski slope down; almost guaranteeing them a future talking point on their policy successes. Also, who releases CPI? Oh the same folks rewriting what a recession is? Was there any doubt? Folks still think the system isn’t rigged though.

Anyone noticing that Biden is starting to rack up some wins? Peculiar timing. Totally unpredictable. Passing legislation and tackling inflation. At least that’s what’s gonna be jamming your new feeds into elections.

I think the internet and lack of context create a picture that seems more confrontational, redundant, and headbutty that things really are. The other side/pushback is always good. The biggest thing I struggle with on the big bear side is simply....quantify it. Few if any do. Its always "you're gonna wanna be in cash". "About to fall off a cliff"..."theyre going to be forced to raise rates"....in addition to the stupid buzzwords like "coming in hot" "stickier than expected" and "money printing"....What exactly does this stuff mean in an actionable way? I was probably on the tech crash before all the guys who now claim to have "called it"...at least in the context that I said short it almost immediately after the vaccine rather than spending multiple years being wrong as a broken record....but when things that you saw as an obvious bubble were down 90% or approaching justifiable valuations, its like, OK, trade is over. With this whole inflation gang bear crew theres never any reason or rationale applied. Everything always has "further to fall" or is "just getting started"...That is certainly not you @changegonnacome, but its most of those loudmouth asshats which is perhaps where it gets tiring hearing it. Most of them just seem to want attention, clicks, retweets, etc rather than seeming to be interested in making money. I won't even get into their track records either. IF the Fed raises 75 bps and then 50, instead of 50 and then 25, does this entail anything significant? To me...even if they do, its not really changing my big picture and if anything, like always, probably creates opportunities. So the context around these sort of things as being big "gotcha/doom is coming" are overblown to me.

What I want to know is how to gamble on tomorrows CPI. It seems “the market” is “hanging in the balance”. Investors are “bracing themselves” for this significant short term event that again tells us what garbage calculation determined what prices were a month ago vs 13 months ago. How do we best prepare for a “monster” 2-3% up or down move on such momentous news? Buckle up folks! This is what long term investing is all about!

MSG(E+S) ~22% AIV 14% ALCO/FRPH 14% JOE 11% PCYO 9% HTL 8% VRE 7% DIS 6% Other stuff ~38% Jim, am I diversified?

In an ominous sign, Ford raises prices of their Lightning pickups trucks, citing increased costs. We must do everything in our power to ensure affordability of tricked out trucks for the masses. Not only is it a quality of life issue, but the climate depends upon it!

The 2.whatever longer term rates tell you all you need to know about the nature of this “inflation”. It’s just another hoax.

Got a nice rip out of it and moved on. Always been a good trading stock but a very moaty business. Management has always been the question mark. But these guys get constant biz and its next to impossible to compete in the space. I'd have to refresh as its been over a year since I owned it. Would be a solid infrastructure play though.

Dude you’re gonna get fried if you keep underpinning the assumptions with inflation being 9%. It’s not, and it’s nowhere close to that. Its an easy number to use for them because now the bar inevitably has to be raised from an unsustainable high caused by one offs like COVID, stimulus and supply chain. It’s the path down. If they do 75 instead of 50 in September what does that do? 25 bps = 10-20% of the indexes again? I doubt it. Either way, I don’t recall what your overall market views were pre COVID. That was a while ago. But if they were along the lines “the Fed controls the stock market”, “gold and cash should do well”, “the market is a bubble”, “easy money, too much liquidity”, “punch bowl”, etc……just throwing out the usual stuff…and again I’m talk PRE COVID, than I’d be weary of falling back into that bias because it’s a mountain so many died on the last decade and the events following COVID did nothing but fuel them and the head fake on inflation I think ultimately fed into every ounce of bias behind that mentality but IMO it’s still a dangerous game to be playing. I don’t see @wabuffo around here as much as he used to be, but he had previously done a pretty amazing job explaining how much fundamentals DIDNT reflect all this hysteria. In fact I’ll go as far as to admit I am of the minority opinion that mortgage rates head much lower and that the 10 year heads lower as well, just not as much as mortgage rates cuz the spread already blew out. I mean people in January were trying to claim the Fed HAS to raise to 7% by end of year. Now it’s like, maybe they’ll go to 3. Nice mea culpa(those guys will remain nameless) Which is fine heading into next year where I don’t think you get more than maybe 3-4 months where even the fake and corrupted CPI is in positive territory.

Generally I think speculating about who’s doing daily trading in a security is unproductive, but if I had to do so I’d wager much heavier on the institution side here. I have a few friends and more acquaintances who buy shit like that. Typical retail investors. They’re petrified of the stock market again lol. Have been for several months now. And they’re tapped out of gambling money. They all wanna save back up so they can buy a house!

I mean I’m sure you saw MSGE even had like 7% short interest. AIV was almost 9%. The professionals are dumber then the folks on Reddit. They just don’t realize it.

I wouldn’t chalk the meme stock stuff up to anything other than the wizards of Wall Street went all in on the shorts in June and July and are now getting scorched. It seems like pretty classic short covering.

Nah bro Denver inventory up 30% from the lows. Crash incoming. In other news, how about another 4 cap in retail? Any takers?

I don’t know anything useful about the subject.

First thing you need to see is that if someone is applying stock market characteristics to the housing market theyre an idiot and you can write off anything they have to say. Someone I hadn’t spoke to in a while emailed me the other week asking if I was concerned that some people might already be down 10-20% from prices a few months ago on their recent home purchases. I was going to respond and eventually didn’t cuz I didn’t want to be too condescending but if that’s how you think of the housing market you shouldnt be anywhere near it. There’s no day trading of houses, there’s very rarely forced liquidation and those take months or years. Anything that sold today and previously is gone. 95% 30 year fixed and vetted rates they know they can afford as demonstrated by lending standards. So the only area you may see true declines in in new supply but even there the builders will take volume over pricing all day. Investors generally underwrite their purchases to rental income. And everyone else buying just wants a home. So to answer his question about the mark to imaginary market on a home purchase from say April? Unless you’re a degenerate gambler…how are you feelin? Great that you’re finally in a home. Second thing is that not all pricing is equal and simply following headlines is misleading. Great example was a home in Florida I was looking at. Sold in 2016 for $700k. 2020 for $1.7m. $2021 for $2.4. Listed in April for $5.5m and was reduced twice down to $4.4 before selling at $4.2m. To the dumb housing bear this is bearish because of all the “price cuts”. I don’t even need to explain how it’s actually the opposite.

Saw a property come on market in an area I know very well at what I considered a fair price. Listed a couple days ago. Figured hmmm, this great housing crash everyone is predicting might finally be occurring. Didn’t really want the property per say, but with rents still solid figured I’d see if I could get it a small discount to asking price and then would make it work. Reached out to my realtor, and…already under contract over ask. GFC 2.0 is here!

Lol yin and Yang. Same here. You’re the voice stating where and how I’ll be wrong, if I’m wrong. Ultimately, assuming one is not a piker, where one chooses to live is the ultimate macro call. All the money in a world and a mansion in Ukraine or a pisspot shitshack in Oklahoma….who got it right? The US and Canada IMO won’t be unseated anytime soon.

I see wages rising as a massive lagging event resulting from all the noise made over the past 6-12 months. If you put shit out there enough eventually even the dodo worker catches on and companies have to play ball. The wage increases are probably the last leg of all the cause and effect. It is of absolutely no surprise that at the utter peak of mania on inflation talk, workers are seeking the largest increases yet. In fact, it makes perfect sense. Weren’t we just saying a few months ago how we had to stop inflation because they’re too dumb to ask for pay hikes? Now they are and it’s terrible? Oil to be honest, I’m starting to wonder if I got caught by that same pump and dump money flow action on as well. The long term story is there for sure, but like with everything else, plummet, recover, super spike, tank. I got the spike but missed the down move probably because of political views influencing my belief oil was destined to stay much higher for much longer. Investment wise I haven’t really done jack other than add to what I already like. Got much less short exposure than I did earlier, covered all my tech stuff because it seems they bottomed first, and just have a larger than normal handful of IWM puts expiring in q4 cuz I had a shit ton of realized gains I was ok offsetting and 2) think all this noise dissipates and we have a conclusion of the inflation story by end q3/q4. But like with COVID, I’ve just grown so tired of all these bullshit artists on the news and internet purposely screaming fire and trying to manipulate the narrative and the way investment decisions are made. On the highest levels like with Ackman they’re actually trying to manipulate monetary policy! Lowest level you have the Twitter clowns. In between CNBC and Bloomberg crowd. Fuck these people. I always enjoyed the days where Nasdaq was off 3%, S&P 2.5% and Dow 1.5% but the headline is “Dow plummets 500 points!”….which is the least newsworthy of all but simply most effective since 500 is a “big” number. Shows in a nutshell what the agenda is.

Well I still have a good amount of October and November IWM puts so by my count we ve got like 50% downside til Kyle Bass’s “another 30-40% down; they’re JUST. GETTING. STARTED!”Prediction. In the meantime these clowns can keep peddling their bullshit, trying to manipulate the market, and trying to scare people into a few bucks profit on their short position.

It’s a step in the wrong direction fundamentally, but when you do the math it’s kinda much ado about nothing. Still way more efficient than dividends.

I know wage-price spiral is the catchy new buzz word. Unfortunately there has been zero sign of that in the real world.

Wasn’t it awesome how pissed off and aggressive all the bearish folks got about a great jobs report today? How hard they tried to slant and manipulate it as a negative thing? The obvious hand wave of “job growth = inflation = Fed HAS TO raise!”…..such self serving pieces of shit.