Gregmal

There is a difference between cheap and cheap with a catalyst. This is where I think @Viking is right. I am a bit biased because I’ve watched Prem for a while and he’s a bit of an egomaniac who’s incentives haven’t always been aligned. However if you start with 2019 or so, and only look at those actions, and ignore the poor timing of removing short bets, he has otherwise been delivering exactly as you’d want. The actions have been stellar. He monetized some stuff. He’s bought back stock. He seems to have a renewed focus. So if that continues and they keep reducing the denominator, you need very little to go right at these prices. This is also at a level where 10-20% lower stock prices allow you to back into a much more aggressive position. So the setup is good and I also think it’s reasonable hedged against inflation and rates. So I guess we ll see but the old man seems to be invested in his stock price again which is always a positive.

Depends. Last few months VIX hasn’t really reacted the way it typically does. We d have big down days and you’d get a 4% up move which was bizarre in the face of how they’d behaved for the past decade. So my preference at the moment would be index puts and maybe some very, very OTM VIX calls.

Has Pabrai actually had real quantifiable investing success? Lol

Margined some Berkshire to buy some FRFH and some IWM puts

Nah you’ll never regret investing in your kids. Even all the worthless toys LOL. Sometimes shits about return on life rather than return on investment. Some of the best investments I’ve made have often been things I didn’t approach strictly from an investment perspective.

He is a guy you want to pay attention to but my sense is that he has become more consumed with getting attention and being “the guy who called it” versus just making money. It’s a common phenomenon with these hedge fund guys. After awhile it becomes about ego more than anything else. Why else would you see people publicly campaigning short positions that aren’t even a double digit position in their book or talking up cash that earns nothing or gold which let’s face it, ain’t unique either. Most guys change after they make their fortune. Just how it is.

Yup. You need a catalyst with FFH. We ve been hearing how cheap it is for years and it’s done nothing and even when Sanjeev tries to pump the tires by cherry-picking low points like $430 when you look at the context(do we need a list of stuff you could’ve bought in july 2020 when it was at 430) it’s just kind of been mediocre at best. However it does tend to follow a few patterns that seem predictable. Fundamentals have also gotten better, and while holding my breath, it seems they wanna keep buying back stock. So the ingredients are all basically on the kitchen table and at this point I think it’s just about seeing when they start working and what causes that.

If withdrawing day to day living expenses risks a margin call you dont have nearly enough. Otherwise, I have what I consider a part time gig. I wouldnt say I'm retired but I wouldnt say I work either LOL. The key really is not getting into categorizing anything but simply being able to both live and invest how you want to. Thats the freedom. My go to is the no interest promo credit cards. Spend day to day on them. Big ticket expenses. everything. Then when you receive income or dividends or an investment matures you manage it. It sounds silly but managing your debt is much more productive than not have any or paying to down aggressively. You can stagger no interest cards. Transfer one to the next at expiration. You can use HELOCs or cash out refis. You just have to think a little creatively.

I agree fully with this. Im likely moving most of my BRK position into FFH soon.

Again, yes, and again. there was plenty of other stuff to buy that did just as well if not better, especially on IRR perspective. What Im looking at here is why FFH has so quickly again fallen out of favor. For a good while it was clearly working. Instead of going to cash you could have bought into the tender ever, and had ample opportunity to sell at high prices and at significant premium to what an index or cash would have provided. My post was trolling for sure, but the objective not really to agitate anything other than some qualitative assessment. Ive gotten really close to getting back in, but first want to see if I have a handle on the jigsaw puzzle that is Mr. Markets relationship with FFH. History has shown that when it works, it works, and when it doesnt...youre probably even better off being in cash.

Yes, its still dumb. I would have been far worse off than I am now holding cash.

Not long ago there was a thread about Berkshire and some claimed it wasn’t cheap enough at 265 but FFH was definitely worth owning. Any updates thoughts?

Well you’d also think someone who gives another person money should make an effort to educate themselves beforehand about what they’re getting into. Investors who have no problem with upward volatility but then get cranky when it’s to the downside deserve their losses. Separately, I really don’t think Burry qualifies at all as an investor. Name of the game is making money and if he does that, then great. But his sporadic ownership and manic episodes hardly indicate to me he is investing at all.

VIX is so low you wanna go OTM

Kind of funny how Michael Burry can hold his highly exotic housing short for 3 years, but he can’t hold a stock for more than a few months.

Basically the Bill Gates portfolio

Started some Target

Wouldnt that mean he likely sold into the bottom and missed the entire rally?

I can’t even imagine what the process must be like for an upstanding citizen brazen enough to consider investing capital in a NY cannabis startup. Like What are the options? Hmm let’s try to get a citation for something dumb so we have a record? Or do we take a trip to the 5 boroughs to look for a business partner on a street corner?

I mean I was always under the assumptions that the laws were not only there to protect society, but following them was just as much a matter of lifestyle choice as it was simply being able to follow directions. However there is a new wave of society that does not seem to value the former one bit, and the later at all.

Been at Legoland Resort with the family last couple days and it came up while shooting the shit. But quickly looking into it, seems real. State website https://cannabis.ny.gov/caurd-info What is a Qualifying Business? As explained in the CAURD Frequently Asked Questions, applicants and licensees must be owned and controlled by a justice involved person who owned at least ten percent (10%) of and controlled a qualifying business for two (2) years, unless eligible under the qualifying nonprofit criteria. Like with much else, the liberals continue to rewrite definitions and make up new words and phrases, beat around the bush, etc...but today's "A justice involved individual" is yesterdays criminal.

Is it real that NY is allowing marijuana business but ONLY for criminals? Someone told me this and I honestly don’t believe it. It’s almost as if you think of the worst way to implement a solution or something new to solve an existing issue …IE, COVID, taxes, crime, exodus to Florida, homeless, drugs, etc….and they single out the one thing anyone with a brain wouldn’t do, and choose to do that.

What advice would you give someone Kyle? If you had a do over? Just. Getting. Started?

Bought some XLE. Keeping it simple LOL

Maybe we re talking different things. I interpreted your question as asking the rationale for selling. I don’t own it and have little interest but the rationale seems pretty simple. There’s better opportunities for the cash than sitting around for a couple quarters to make a few percent, especially with those uncertainties which whether likely to occur or not are things folks would consider. If the spread was 15%? Sure I’d kick the tires. But not single digits.