Gregmal

Oh it’s great for longer term investors and sophisticated folks. I think I said here in maybe January or February that after the last few years I’ve gotten to the point where I want nothing more than a huge market crash where I can just buy great stuff and just do absolutely nothing for the rest of my life vs the past decade of actively trading to generate 30%+ returns. The brain drain of active investing is tough. It’s happening. But it’s happening at the expense of who? And who’s profiting off it? The same weasels and scoundrels who did in 2008 which was largely something they created. I don’t care if my personal stuff declines because it’s money I don’t need and I can just buy more. I’ve worked for maybe 10 years in my life in the traditional sense. But you see all around the regular folks who did what they were told and now it’s their burden. Cuz hedge funds are greedy and see an opportunity and folks who can never seem to get their shit together can’t handle $800 a year increase in expenses once stimmies stop.

Except not coincidentally? The whole world handled COVID the same way and not surprisingly the whole world is dealing with the same temporary side effects. Unfortunately, the middle class people getting fucked are too civilized to riot. They’ll just spend another decade or two working.

Math is the same. We have one and a half years of whacky stuff going on from COVID. And the response has been to so far, wipe our years of savings. Someone with $60k annual income and a $200k 401 has lost $50k over what? $800 in annual expenses?

You know, cuz it’s about the people making $30k a year they got 5% raises when inflation was 8% and couldn’t handle $900 a year extra in expenses when their stimulus checks ran out….

Yup. So some say fuck him. But the truth is that these people are getting royally fucked and further stuck in the hamster wheel as their HARD EARNED savings, and especially retirement accounts that they rely on the system for, are getting destroying because the academics and hedge funds desperate for short alpha and more interest income are pushing narrative that we re in 1981(12 years into an inflation cycle) when in reality we’ve had 18 month of COVID distortion. This particularly hits close to home for me because my father in law, a great normal middle class guy, is losing sleep because he’s lost a decade of savings this year. He isn’t financially sophisticated and spent 20 years busting his ass. He got lucky when Carl Icahn got his company, Forest Labs sold for a small fortune and that finally propelled him from two decades of paycheck to paycheck into some comfort. And now it’s gone to hell because…”the economy was too good”??? In other words, normal people were doing well and finally had job leverage? Or again, I could revert back to one of my tenants who’s rent is 40% below market because I took care of them since they’re good people and did the right thing during COVID. They finally got back to even late last year, started looking for a home in the spring, and poof, a bs $400k home costs them almost 2x their current rent(on a $;00k home)! I hated “the system” before all this, and my animosity towards it has only amplified.

It seems really kinda fucked up though when you consider that chunks of this guys lifetime paychecks have already been going to these less fortunate via taxation. Further he probably wasn’t eligible for all the stimulus checks that caused the inflation. But nonetheless it’s his cross to carry. It’s always the middle class who gets fucked. Same for my current tenants. Were gonna save to buy a home. COVID hit. Finally recovered and got back to work last year. Now they have the down payments, but the mortgage rates pushed them out and back into renting.

What else is he gonna say with that performance lol? He had a nice few years with mom and dads money, got some attention to build AUM, and has been a disastrous little napoleon ever since.

Wasn’t it their damn stimulus checks that created all the inflation? No it wasn’t QE that had been going on for a decade. That’s only gained steam now because those people are desperate for vindication after a decade but they’re still wrong. It was the stimulus checks. So they wanted more money, they got it, and they still complain? Its impossible for value investing not to work if you find a business that makes money or trades below private market value and has a share structure or mechanism that allows it to get back to shareholders exists.

We must stop inflation! middle class dude 55 years old annual salary $130k Expenses yearly $60k 401k $550k 5% inflation Costs $3000 in added living expenses solving 5% inflation? costs his retirement account $150k more genius

Which old fashioned way? Supply and demand based build to oblivion? Dont think theyre trying that yet.

Existing home owners are sitting pretty. Builders are well capitalized and already cutting back starts big time. And shit, now even the greedy greaseball mortgage companies are TIGHTENING lending standards!(I would have expected the opposite) Seems like that housing supply shortage and affordability issue won’t be getting solved any time soon. If nothing else they just taken (insert however many years this crusade takes) and added all those folks to the demand side as well. This isn’t even considering the fact prices have softened somewhat but nothing crazy overall. We re still way above 2019 prices pretty much everywhere. Still way below on supply. And contrary to the point people like to make about how much mortgage payments have risen year over year, prices relative to that have held respectably. In other words, what people are willing to pay for a home on a monthly basis is up substantially year over year. So you basically just spring loaded the buyer pool should rates ever come down.

We re staring at deflation everywhere and the Fed is mouth breathing about jobs and rent which are lagging indicators.

He d rather just keep writing checks to Ukraine. There’s so much weird shit that just escapes my ability to comprehend how certain things are occurring in the world right now, and at the top of the list is the situation with energy.

Jamie Dimon seems on board with S&P 3000

Took a loss on META and bought Nintendo along with some VIX 40s

Wouldn’t it be funny to see how many chumps would trade solely off one cpi print? Like pay an intern $10k to totally fabricate something, maybe 1% or idk like 23%, numbers any half wit could tell you to throw in the garbage, and see what kind of pandemonium ensues?

Alico is farm/ranch land. Free cal on development upside. There’s a lot of good stuff inside Berkshire as well. CF Industries is stupid cheap. Pure Cycle obviously has a lot of water. Inflation or not these issues are structural and lasting and folks don’t just want them but they need them. Burry and Bass, two of the biggest bears I’m aware of, have often talked about the attraction of owning land and water. It’s not really sexy but it gets the job done.

Every time we have a Democrat in office this shit occurs. They can’t help but grandstand and parade around in glee, provoking Russia, Saudi Arabia, and China while bizarrely having a soft spot for the lemmings of the Middle East. Claiming it’s the good vs evil war when in reality they are endangering all of us and making things more expensive.

It was a number of thing IMO, all converging at once. Sending $300 a month, per kid, to lower and middle income families definitely had a ripple. I mentioned last year part of the “buy anything housing” bonanza was because if a family of 3 now had $900 a month for rent, those bs one or two bedroom units that used to go for $1400 a month anywhere decent in America now needed to be priced at probably $1800 minimum. This definitely reverberated. Same with groceries and entertainment. But at the end of the day, the Fed can’t drill oil, build homes or plow wheat. Their solutions only make those problems worse. Which I guess is why I’m still balls to the wall long shelter, food/resources, and energy. Despite thinking the current inflation is passing and all.

Totally, the NY halo benefits NJ immensely. Even the most ardent NYC fanboys I know all acknowledge theres very real structural issues at play, most of which are totally self inflicted but ultimately hard to reverse. Is it so hard to keep people safe? That said, ironically, as much as I get accused of being a NY hater, Ive got a bigger % of my net worth invested in things purely seizing the opportunity to capitalize on the idea that NYC overall relevance will diminish. I dont think it will, at least in many respects. But in others, its already happened. MSG and VRE assets will both live and even continue to thrive IMO. Office may be harder. Some people like trash bag lined streets, I prefer them to be tree lined. Others enjoy the ego boost they get when leaving an ATM lobby knowing the checking account balance on the receipt they purposely drop on the floor will be admired by the 8 homeless people sleeping in there.... To each their own.

Sending people $300 per kid a month was really the match that lit the fire IMO. And they’re talking about stuffing a renewal into a year end bill making it permanent. Even as it’s almost throughly been drained from the system as it expired last December. At some point, inflation or not, this will get political. Politicians only know how to bribe with money. Their constituents will eventually demand answer for why their 401ks are getting obliterated. These aren’t people like us who allocate our own money and many do it on after tax dollars anyway. Most folks are financially dumb, check a box, and expect to see their nest egg grow. Especially for the older folks, whose major earning years have contributed the bulk of the value the past decade, gonna be some interesting questions and confrontations. How’s one of those target funds with a stock bond mix? Both off 25%+ on the year. Another 10-15% off and they’ve had most of their savings since like 2005 wiped out. And no, 5% short term CD options doesn’t compensate for this. We all live and die by our stock selection prowess, it’s 100% accountability. I bought it, I sell it, I live with the fruits or turds. Most people blindly rely on the system and are gonna want answers when yet again, it fails them.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/07/rich-young-professionals-fleeing-california-and-new-york.html

Pretty much agree with the sentiment discussed. It’s pretty clear a capital injection via stimulus and COVID restrictions blew the whole thing up. The Fed got transitory wrong by 12-18 months. So now they can’t keep saying that. The have to basically stay committed out of fear of being wrong, and when it wanes as it seems destined to do(or already is in the process of doing) they can say see! We did it. Oh bureaucrats!

Hopefully Gavin uses at least a Google search. NJ and NY are equally as liberal and gas is like $3.50 a gallon. There’s definitely something worth investigation regarding California gas prices but I don’t think they’ll like what they find as to the why.

Whew. For a minute I thought the Garden was gonna be empty and no one would want Alico oranges. Hopefully the rate hikes get that whole energy thing straightened out.