Gregmal

Sending people $300 per kid a month was really the match that lit the fire IMO. And they’re talking about stuffing a renewal into a year end bill making it permanent. Even as it’s almost throughly been drained from the system as it expired last December. At some point, inflation or not, this will get political. Politicians only know how to bribe with money. Their constituents will eventually demand answer for why their 401ks are getting obliterated. These aren’t people like us who allocate our own money and many do it on after tax dollars anyway. Most folks are financially dumb, check a box, and expect to see their nest egg grow. Especially for the older folks, whose major earning years have contributed the bulk of the value the past decade, gonna be some interesting questions and confrontations. How’s one of those target funds with a stock bond mix? Both off 25%+ on the year. Another 10-15% off and they’ve had most of their savings since like 2005 wiped out. And no, 5% short term CD options doesn’t compensate for this. We all live and die by our stock selection prowess, it’s 100% accountability. I bought it, I sell it, I live with the fruits or turds. Most people blindly rely on the system and are gonna want answers when yet again, it fails them.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/07/rich-young-professionals-fleeing-california-and-new-york.html

Pretty much agree with the sentiment discussed. It’s pretty clear a capital injection via stimulus and COVID restrictions blew the whole thing up. The Fed got transitory wrong by 12-18 months. So now they can’t keep saying that. The have to basically stay committed out of fear of being wrong, and when it wanes as it seems destined to do(or already is in the process of doing) they can say see! We did it. Oh bureaucrats!

Hopefully Gavin uses at least a Google search. NJ and NY are equally as liberal and gas is like $3.50 a gallon. There’s definitely something worth investigation regarding California gas prices but I don’t think they’ll like what they find as to the why.

Whew. For a minute I thought the Garden was gonna be empty and no one would want Alico oranges. Hopefully the rate hikes get that whole energy thing straightened out.

Maybe they can do something useful with Citadels space.

Maybe we re getting close. Monday Jumbo Jim said the bottom was in. Today he updated his position. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/07/cramers-week-ahead-dont-be-a-hero-while-the-fed-battles-inflation.html Although also amazing is this. The second most overused finance buzz phrase this year is either “coming in hot” or “the E”. Well, apparently the economy is still way too strong. So if that’s the case, why is “the E” gonna fall off a cliff and never recover? Lotsa contradictions in the market right now.

The company is basically run by an activist hedge fund. It’s gonna happen. Something. Balance sheet needs work but it’s small enough to be swallowed easily.

Yea you’d think they own toxic mold or something. But trading action not totally unexpected given the optics. 25 bps up on the 10 year is the new 200 more COVID cases for REITs.

I always wonder how people choose to arrive at their start points? Why 2008 or not 2007 or 2015 or 2000?

Please no. Let him stay in Florida. He can be effective there. The US as a whole, especially from the seat of the White House, is just too far gone.

It’s funny cuz if the wage increase, expected to come in at 5.2% came in at 5.3%, we’d be hearing a never ending string about needing more massive hikes. Instead, it comes in below and we still need more hikes. I guess people just like the current narrative.

Yea that’s generally one of my go to hedge plays. But it’s been different the last 4 months or so. Under 30 it’s still whippy. But over 30 it just seems to die. Definitely synching up with more of a non panic, systematic sell. Vs traditionally, even with the last of the COVID variants, a 2-3% down day would be +15-20% VIX spikes. But that can all change in an instant and the calls over 40 ain’t too expensive and that’s where you hit the 10-20 baggers so I’ve been rolling some of those.

Yup. I have no clue what they think the point of overdoing it is. They're blindfolded and swinging at a piñata that doesnt exist. If everything is coming down, and the only thing standing is a solid jobs market, its incredible to me that they'd keep being obtuse on little more than academic theory and a not really all that applicable 1970s sample size of 1.

I’d love to ban the term “something breaks”. Force folks to actually make sense of their communications because it’s by far the cliche buzz word of 2022. Just saying “until something breaks” is like the lowest IQ sound-byte putforthable. Not at all directed at you UK. Waiting for -40% would be what? Wiping out 20 years of savings for the 50-65 crowd? Because last year they did nothing and this year inflation is like 5%, but yea 1970! Come the fuck on.

Now imagine most of the houses and cars are owned by jerks? Would you pay 30% more to the “nice guy” for the exact same product? I guess when it’s other peoples money it’s different, which is effectively where the government sits.

I think a lot of this comes down to what you’re looking to invest in. Quality operating businesses very rarely go on sale to such a massive degree that they’d be pushing 15-20% cash flow. Especially not over some run of the mill, temporary any way you cut it, rate hike fit and run of the mill recession. Like maybe META is getting there now and even outside of the market, look at all the company specific issues that have caused that. But overall the best companies tend to trade better than troubled ones. Rates are still lower than where they are historically. Rich get richer and great companies take market share and get stronger over the cycle. Does anyone truly believe Costco should have a 15% earnings yield? Why would Costco trade down more than the average company? Part of where I think there’s a flaw in some of the logic many people are throwing around is that people are still, granted feeling very emboldened, basically just making the case for valuation shorts which is and never has been a great strategy. Was Amazon cheap on a FCF basis in 2009? So I guess yea it’s prudent either way to wait until you find what works for you. But a Ferrari is still a Ferrari and more expensive than a Honda during a recession. Maybe it’s somewhat cheaper than in a roaring economy. But it’s still not gonna be given away.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3889503-scott-minerd-warns-fed-rate-hikes-will-likely-break-something-in-the-economy-this-year I actually found what this guy had to say quite balanced and well stated.

That’s actually something I’ve had the unique experience of seeing first hand as well. Doing the manage money for others thing, especially earlier in my life, I’d see and review portfolios all the time. And yup, it’s amazing when you look at the stuff longer term and see just how much the system works if you let it. Meanwhile people are itching to buy or sell the next 10% move on tomorrows jobs report or next weeks CPI. It’s kind of incredible actually when you think about how easy it is, again, assuming you buy quality stuff.

Nah. I heard that it’s actually going to be the ONLY thing produced by COVID that doesn’t follow the plummet, mega spike, then normalize trend. Cuz 70s.

Yea it’s 100% a foolproof way to constantly end up massively overpaying. Imagine approaching the stock market like that? Or buying a house? Hmmm, I ran a Google search on that guy and didn’t really like what I found so I don’t think I’ll be proceeding with my home purchase sir. Then add in all the money we are giving away to Ukraine and it’s like gee, hurray government spending. Let’s bust inflation!

Why do people act like you need to be friends with a counter party? This is asinine. We should be buying all the Russian and Saudi and Iranian oil we can. Or start doing more at home, but that would create jobs, and jobs are apparently bad.

This, or a variation of such, is why it’s so crazy seeing how worked up people get over “the market”…whatever that means. Is the proposition acceptable, on a case by case basis? Yes or no? 15% FCF yield? Yes sir, I’ll have another.

Spot on. “The system” incentivizes buying and selling. Doesn’t matter what it is. Its engrained. It’s why everyday you see trade inspiring headlines and without ever even giving second thought, people succumb to things like “how to prepare” or “the coming …..”. Bottom line is owning assets beats not owning them. Yes I’m sure there’s exception to the rule as there is with everything, but generally speaking, you want to be an owner of good assets in life. Ignore the “well there was this one time” crowd.

Pretty much vibes with everything Ive seen and studied. Cash, stock, bond, real estate. Just plot the numbers and go out over time and the answer will be obvious.