Gregmal

I’ll never understand why people go to such extreme lengths to complicate simply analyzing what a business is likely to be worth over the next 5-10 years.

The Schiller PE is indisputably the most useless so called metric of I’ve ever come across. It’s only productive use is if you press print, and then proceed to use it as a paper basketball to sink long range jumpers in the office. But even that is only useful if you aren’t the one paying for the ink. I mean seriously, if you followed it, the only time you woulda been in the market was for like a few months in 2009. Otherwise you’d have missed everything.

Triple net is for senior citizens so it’s not really exciting but it’s also not that bad in an inflationary environment. Inflation and a hot economy generally go hand in hand. So the general NNN or NN stuff is run of the mill retail. Your structure and land greatly appreciate even if the rental check becomes below market. Eventually it resets and a good team staggers the maturities. What really sucks in any environment is office. Secular decliner with much longer fixed rate. And significantly more capex.

The issue is that all of this is just as much wishful thinking. Piece by piece, the economy has already moderated some, the stock market is off anywhere from “some” to “a lot” depending upon what you define that as. Amazon for instance is down like 50% from when it became a VIC favorite. So 75% of your catalysts have already occurred or at least seem to be acknowledged by most of the market, and the Fed has been clear a while they’re holding rates for a bit. Who is this consensus that is indicating they are cutting or is this just another assumption derived from “the market is at 20x and I think it should be at 15x”? And again, 4% is a waste of time. Yes, even if the ultimate gotcha is that once in a while the market will have short term performance inferior to that.

I don’t think the Fed cuts anytime soon. Nor should they. But mortgage rates have a ways to go down to normalize. That’s the key rate. Otherwise, there’s enough real assets and business that are gonna crush it from these levels, in most likely outcomes, while also still enough bloated darlings still out there that one can still do quite well.

Tried watching the Netflix Madoff series. Awful. They made it seem like all this guy did was skip through a dark office with a cigar, pointing at people as if he s Will Ferrell.

They’ll need new hobbies after all this time spent mistakenly spotting inflation and recessions that last 3 years.

I think the thing I try to focus on is if the aggregate data is saying stuff that collectively gives cause for concern and where that stands relative to market expectations. For the past few months all we ve heard is that this margin call like moment of truth was about to happen; the consumer, on their knees financially, was supposedly putting their Christmas trees on the high interest credit cards and the recession was about to collapse every earnings component in the index so we get to our universal consensus of S&P 3000. And idk, but that just seemed like story telling void of real evidence and what we keep seeing is confirmation of that.

I’ll also clarify that I’m certainly not saying ignore anything. In fact, I’m questioning why no one else is taking that advice. Pretty much everything I’ve seen and read for months now completely ignores anything that doesn’t fit a scary narrative.

Yea. First they said it was supposed to happen in 2022 LOLz

Just follow the stuff Wabuffo looks at. It’s spot on. The “savings are drained and credit spiraling out of control” narrative is largely cherry picked lies and distortions used to create bear porn. Like seriously people are talking about consumer credit and conveniently “forgetting” to exclude mortgage debt. Or “including” it but then ignoring equity.

I mean the most likely scenario I feel is staring right at us, right in front, almost every week. Jobs numbers continue to crank. Wages good but not spiraling. Savings/credit good. Inflation plummeting. Yet everyones too busy watching bear porn and reading conspiracy theories that when another good economic figure comes out they wanna sell their stocks because the macro clowns have told them good news is bad(LOL is this ever really true if you're a long term investor not buying stupid crap?) and to run from 50 bps because the punchline is....stuff might go down 20-30%. As if stocks arent known to be a volatile asset class...

Theres no inflation anymore and in a few months even the lagging stuff will reflect that. The economy and earnings continue to hang in there. Everyone is talking about mispricings but nobody has considered the possibility that the recession gets avoided and the Fed is soon forced to stop. Their mandate is inflation and soon they'll have no leg to stand on there. So whats the bet? That they say "no inflation but we won't stop till we kill a lot of jobs"? Thats neither their mandate nor a position an official will likely do well with for very long. Other side of the coin is that the economy then picks up, mortgage rates normalize, and off we go.

I think it’s hard owning a REIT that doesn’t have a clear and easy path to getting sold.

Don’t forget dominos. His crusade against wellness company Herbalife, and his love of Valeant which was robbing people dependent on drugs. He s probably the greatest long term fundamental investor I’ve seen first hand(aka not someone like Buffett who did his thing decades ago), but also 100% the embodiment of why Wall Street people and hedge funders are universally thought of as scumbags.

Netflix is geared towards Americans. So lazy, thoughtless, stupid…all work.

Same. I think mine is 20% not 25%. Had to modify plans for a patio because of this. Got around it for my ice rink because it s not considered a permanent structure. In many of these states and places you don’t really own your stuff. Just got a mail reminder to renew my boat trailer registration….huh? I bought my boat and it came with a trailer. I’ve never once used or seen it, it’s stored at the Marina. But I need to pay this jerk off filled state to have it. Same with my car. Why do I need to pay the state every year?

I love Bills investment style but he s really outed himself as a real hypocrite and pos the last few years. He whines about COVID killing people to pump his positions and then a couple years later is one of the largest advocates of actions that he knows will result in economic hardship and job loss which is linked to killing people as well. What was that stat? Like 1% increase in unemployment leads to like 50k deaths? But that’s ok. Whereas I’m sure the hedge fund guys egging this on would object to someone stating we should kill or throw in jail 1,000 hedge fund guys for every 1% increase in employment. There hasn’t been real inflation since the summer and we re really just waiting to lap the war spike so if nothing else you’re really starting to see the cream rise to the top here in terms of guys outing themselves with what they’re advocating for. And what their motives are. What kind of person, who’s already well off, advocates like this for hardship for normal people?

Lol what idiots

Agree. Just kind like a lot and am content letting it roll. Fairfax has been stellar. Stuff like Brk and MKL should also benefit. But indeed it seems every single year on this forum FFH is a top idea. Which isn’t surprising given the name.

I wouldnt overthink it. Thats chump change to them. Folks speculate all the time. Watch what they do with Liverpool or ManU. Theres probably not a valuation metric there either, nor was there when Tepper or Balmer bought their clubs. Sometimes when you have lots of resources, you simply want to own things that may eventually have a strategic purpose. Its not always about an IRR. People shit on Softbank and Ark but now want to celebrate the fact that Greenlight just got back to where it was in 2015 cuz theyre "value investors"...

People said the same thing about the initial Tesla investment(no not the 2018 one but the decade old stuff) and they also said Dan Loeb is a value investor even though he owned Rivian. Who cares what the label is? Purpose of investing is to make money. Not “be a value investor”. Brookfield is considered a value investor and they overpay for malls.

I’m not sure I’d trust much of the negative spin in its entirety. Is a Twitter stake really any worse than the spac or ESG junk Western institutions invest in? I also recall the Saudi funds going nuts buying stocks in March 2020. LYV at like $12 iirc, stuff like that. Same time as you had the domestic hero’s like Marks and Drunkenmiller calling for a Great Depression.

Congrats. And 100% agree. That was my biggest objective in 2022. Wind down of the higher performing but time intensive trading activities and congregating in unique, durable long term investments. Rather spend the time with my kids.

I still continue to be amazed at how many sleezeball fund guys get airtime with no pushback to basically claim you need a recession to get back to growth…. That’s like saying you need a stock to lose 20% so we can do 6% a year for the next 3 years…..the only ones this benefits are the ones shorting that stock and then waiting to cover and go long. Everyone else would be better off just hanging with the status quo. Any young or newbie investor really needs to soak the last 3 years in and internalize how rigged the entire system is because it’s fundamental to longer term outperformance.