Gregmal

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-08/nyc-wealth-exodus-drives-billionaire-s-bet-on-south-florida-boom?sref=MTy2GeXk Its crazy to me how many of my NY friends are so invested in fighting the melting ice cube situation. Like its personal or something. No, its not cyclical this time...unless something major policy wise changes. No, your restaurants are not special anymore...the chefs are moving to South Florida too. No the chicks aint hotter either, especially in January....Its as clear an investment theme as you'll ever see. Embrace it and make money. This past week Ive been in Florida and you see Super Bowl Party ads and signs everywhere. Meanwhile my phone keeps getting texts from NJ government about "make sure you get your covid booster for the big game"...its just stunning how different things are in the two areas and how oblivious the NY/NJ/CT region is to whats happening simply due to a bizarre and arrogant superiority complex.

I think you missed the memo. They claimed cap rates blew out big time but supposedly it’s a lagging indicator and they moved the original lag date from q2 to q4 2022 and then again to q3/4 2023. The proof is that some guy on Twitter bought a value add strip center with an apartment on top, somewhere in Missouri, at like a 7 cap…. Yes, it was always this amusing from day 1.

Yea for sure I know you're one of the good guys. I just kinda rant on the talking points because a lot of these are the ones manipulated by the bad actors and bullshit artists. Any way you cut it, a market and economy where everything is plummeting, like say, last summer, is not a healthy one. So the obvious skepticism from people who are deceptively lobbying everyone else that this is the answer, is bs and should be called out. Its just coincidental theyre hoarding cash or shorting the market...nothing to see there(shrug)...yea fuckin right. If "everything plummeting" is not the answer, we will obviously have situations where some stuff goes up and some down and thats just always the way things have worked generally speaking, with a gradual longer term bias to the upside. Many last year in H2 got conditioned to scream anytime, anything, went up. I just look forward to what looks like a more normal, normal, going forward. Which should include 4-5% interest rates, not 0 and not 7.

I also kind of became desensitized to the used car and commodity inputs as a bellwether because last time the inflationistas screamed about them they fell off a cliff shortly thereafter and in response to this the inflationistas changed the goalposts and moved on to other more convenient bellwethers. Have we come full circle?

Yup. Except now we ve been conditioned to see them as signs of the coming apocalypse. They’re not

It’s like everytime the market has had a few up weeks or makes a 5-10% move back up the past 6 months there’s a whole crowd of people who are aghast and screaming about retail mania and bubbles again and it’s just like “wtf are we doing”?

Of course, they’re trying very hard to create “gasp”, “oh no it’s back” moments. As with every ride, there’s gonna be fluctuations but the overall direction is what clearly matters and that’s down. Which if you understand the “ups and downs” part, consistent even with random walk stuff..it’s not surprising at all. Nor nothing to fret. Most of these day in the life fluctuations have occurred for decades, only now have we been trained to scrupulously pick them apart.

Another one of the pillars of rounding out your investment strategy/acumen is realizing that when you do buy and sell you don’t need to obsessively fret over hitting tops or bottoms.

More thesis validation today.

Work hard and do whatever makes you the most obscene amount of money until you have somewhat of a base….then get aspirational and make lifestyle choices.

This is quite possibly the most life altering perspective one can have, and it requires a great deal of internalizing the investment process. When I started out and had little money, every fluctuation was a big deal. Over time you can’t help but notice how many, most, almost all….of the well timed sales look foolish if given enough time. The long game is just as simple as Buffett has shown it to be…accumulating. Not churning, flipping, etc.

What do you think of MBS type stuff?

Cough KB Homes and Hovnanian might be worth looking at.

Also don’t forget the irony of folks whining about 20x earnings but then ooh lala-ing about 5% fixed income lol. At least the earnings tend to be dynamic and grow over extended periods of time. If you really believe in the inflation thing, the last thing you want back in future years is todays dollars. What a market we currently have.

If 50-100bps, let alone 25-50 are the difference between investing and not investing, probably better off just throwing everything in the garbage. I can’t imagine tailoring my investment decisions around something so arbitrary. A shit company is still a shit company whether FF is at 3, 5, or 10. Same goes for a great asset.

So again, he s at 5.4 and we are currently at 4.5-4.75. Everyone and their mom is cool with one or two more. What exactly is the payoff here if we get 1-2 additional tiny hikes? Is it just some pump and dump like short term sell off on headlines? Cuz otherwise it just seems like trying to squeeze the literal last drop of blood from a stone. This is sooo last years trade.

Reading isn’t like doing push-ups. It’s not all the same in terms of the benefit. So I think this sort of thing is ripe to be wildly misinterpreted. If I find great content, or a book like Reminisces of a Stock Operator, I can read for days or weeks, with undivided attention. Try too hard to find content, and you’ll find yourself on Twitter dumbing yourself down and wasting time better spent mowing the lawn.

CNBC: Stocks slip as investors brace themselves for remarks from Fed chair Powell… Brace themselves huh? Lol, my goodness

Who cares? If the US defaults, everyone will likely try to create a circus and “look at me I called it” show. But really, it would just be a casual reminder to the studious market participant that anything can happen. If the US can default, so can anyone, ratings be damned. So again, does it even matters. And if you already approach your investments with some sort of level of caution or diligence…this wouldn’t be news in the first place. Although I would laugh at the treasury buyers. 4% will always be a waste of time. Regardless of who sends it.

I’m just wondering, if there’s an official spokesperson for the super bear camp…when is the official goalpost moving ceremony on the hard landing date? I still loosely have it as H1 2023, but I’m starting to see a lot of the same folks now saying Q3/4 2023 or Q1 2024….

Come on guys. With all the divergences out there, is the best idea this year really betting on whether YE FF is 4.25/4.5 or 5? I’m always open to ideas with toque but I am not even convinced there’s an effective yo-yo to play such a wager. I mean maybe the market grinds 10-15% lower…which if you know the options game, probably means you’re lucky to break even unless you time it absolutely perfectly. I would still wager shorting AAL bonds or buying far OTM puts on a 2025 refi crunch is the best higher rate shock/recession play out there. But splitting hairs on a thesis down to 50 bps on FF seems like you’re giving yourself too many ways to lose.

The next decade certainly won't look like the last. But I also like things that are asymmetric, off the radar, and have big payoffs. Theres none of that with trying to guess, let alone spending tons of time worrying about, whether inflation is 3.35 or 3.75 or 4.15% going forward. All we need to know, is what we already know, and thats that the clowns who said it would be north of 5% are done and so is all that came with that fear mongering charade.

Half dozen by noon?(1 pm given the time difference)…yes we can courtesy of the fine folks at The Pearl.

Just wondering how many years worth of returns from the highly acclaimed 5% treasury one would need to acquire the returns received from the start of this thread?

Everyone knows the scoundrels I’m referring to. Mainly hedge fund guys and macro traders. The formula was so obvious. 1)Scream to anyone who would listen about the necessity of rate hikes (while shorting the market and buying 4-5% bonds lol). No conflict or agenda there! 2)Claim the Fed MUST do this. It’s an issue of ethics and national stability…LOL 3)Deliberately and dishonestly point to current CPI as the metric to determine inflation and where rates need to be raised to. 4)Quote the 70s stuff and unproven academic theory that doesn’t exist today but sounds scary This game is dead and those folks deserve to get buried.