Gregmal

So the stock peaked at $40, spent tons of time between $10-25, and wouldn’t have been a worthwhile investment? Especially with a common sense DCA strategy?

I don’t rule that out. I’ve said I think Q4 probably gets a little interesting on how these things break. But I’m also not as bullish as he is on energy and commodities.

Yea we all know the real reason for the Ukraine support rests with Burisma and is more about creating sideshows and distractions. Personally, this isn’t our problem stop wasting our taxpayer funds fanning the flames. Ukraine is a corrupt dump and Russia is Russia. What’s the end game? Another Iran/Iraq situation lol? That worked wonders despite us doing everything we wanted there for two decades. US needs to leave everyone else alone.

Yea once upon a time mushrooms were pretty awesome.

I mean if there’s life on earth it’s pretty low probability that in the entire galaxy, that’s it, just here and nowhere else? no? Like why wouldn’t there be life elsewhere? These topics are always overrun with sensationalism but the probability of life elsewhere has to be near certain.

I dont think change is ever gonna come around! When something stops working in terms of an investment variable, you move on. Focusing on this micro granular crap has had zero payoff. This whole rally and inflation deceleration was visible from 100 miles away. If they do another 25 bps here or there, again, who cares? whats your payoff? Another stupid 5-10% blip that instead of taking advantage of, folks sit there and just like last time claim is "just the beginning?". Its ridiculous. Add in, as talked about to death already, that so much of the inflation is still housing and that raising rates just makes that component even worse...they have zero leg to stand on anymore. They've made the inflation problem worse, not better...but it wasn't terribly bad to begin with because so much of it was one off. As Kuppy mentioned, you dont even need to bother with most of this nonsensical noise. Just stay in your lane and focus on what you do know and pick your spots.

You aint buying 3M for growth and you're not buying it because its clean on the liability side. You're buying it because its stable, irreplaceable American brands trading at 10x with roughly $40B of liability priced in. One of the most head scratching things I repeatedly see with investments is when folks look at the opportunity, and then declare the reason for the opportunity, as the reason not to take advantage of the opportunity. Heard it in 2013 that "you just dont know the magnitude of the London Whale losses" at JPM. Well, yea, thats why its at $32 a share, duh! If you didnt have the liability side, this business wouldnt be trading at 10x.

Bears looking for 3000 SPY

Just gotta make some loose assumptions and be comfortable with the unknowable. Not everyone is capable of that.

Uh oh! Core cpi, the one with housing weighted 1/3 and cheeseburgers from restaurants part of the equation weighed in at a sticky icky icky 5.3! Anyway, next month we start seeing headline 3 prints. Even if these assholes wanted to display incompetence with more hikes, their hands are gonna be tied.

This whole war has been a great and amusing exercise in highlighting the bias of Western reporting. US GOOD, THEM BAD! How many sources and people and outlets said Russia was responsible for the pipeline? Or the Kremlin drone attack? Or the totally fabricated “ghost of Kiev”…Anything to keep billing the US taxpayer for this political game being played.

It’s literally never ends.

Saw on feed I saw some silly little headline with one of those "here's how much" titles on DR Horton. Turns out if you bought DR Horton 15 years ago, yup before the market imploded during GFC, a $100 investment would be worth about $1000. This thread is called "so what exactly is the short homebuilder thesis"....but in general I also think it's become super clear, if it wasn't already, that buying and holding great companies is a fool proof way to invest. Id ask "what is the thesis for short term, speculative macro market guessing at this point?". Because it always used to be "well if you bought at exactly the top....you woulda been in trouble"....but more often than not, even thats not the case. And if you bought anywhere else, you are doing A-OK.

Yea that’s why 10x or whatever territory we are getting into is important. You’ll have issues but eventually start getting buried in cash. With no issues this is a 20-25x type of company.

Hasn’t this been true of tobacco now for like 4 decades? I was talking with someone on this recently and another prevailing thought was simply the 30,000 ft view acknowledging that hey, DuPont is still around when they’re like the king of liability related issues. So it really just comes down to price. Which here, is definitely reasonable.

The past decade was in response to GFC. Perhaps it was overdone, but that’s why it was like that. Going forward it’s just gonna be normal like pre GFC type environment. It’s just doesn’t seem normal to most people now because they’ve convinced themselves post GFC was normal and it wasn’t.

Exactly. That’s like the 2nd question on the Series 7.

This is a classic 20x high quality American blue chip if none of the litigation existed. So back tracking that into the current valuation, what is the market pricing in? Seems like it’s at least $30-40b.

Nothing high level. Just seems to be one of those every once in a while setups where you have a really good, resilient business getting sludged up by a temporary issue. Balance sheet is solid, trades at a low multiple. Just seems like an easy thing to buy a bit here and maybe somewhat lower and then just put it away for a while.

Ian Poulter it was. Take care of your family. Fuck everyone else.

Lol yea. And yet, what do most people think of Tiger Woods? They shit on him. I totally agree with the LIV guys. Taking care of their kid’s kid’s kid’s with certainty supersedes some sort of media inspired virtue signaling. There was actually a good Netflix documentary on this. Some of these guys doubled their career earnings AFTER exiting their prime by signing with LIV. The Scottish guy I forget his name was one. 47 years old. Career middle of the pack guy. Borderline not even qualifying for PGA tour anymore, yea….why wouldn’t he take $30m to go to LIV?

Started some MMM.

Yea I actually did sell Costco around 560 but its a great example of the overblown nature of the fear mongering. Theres more attractive stuff out there, but even if its Costco, just DCA over time and you'll be fine. This had a few panic dips to low 400s last year. The only argument, which is the one we see regularly is...if you ignore all the good stuff and only bought Costco at the all time highs, you've lost 20% of something which pales in compassion to 5% treasuries. The truth is thats not how it works and even if you buy the top it certainly doesnt have to be your only buy. And over time this stuff works itself out. Just like...if you ignore all the benefits people got during covid, they were eaten alive by inflation in 2022. Or if you ignore the years stocks did well with inflation, theyre terrible inflation assets. Just make the time horizon longer and you won't fall for all this cherry picked nonsense.

Recessions happen. We've had em before and will have em again. Costco still trades north of $500 a share. That was another one that supposed to be eaten alive on "valuation concerns"....folks should really just stop trying to be smarter than the market and just invest with a longer horizon.

Well we haven’t gotten back to the old top. Maybe the thread should be “what’s next? All time highs or 3000”.