Gregmal

Quoting Seth Klarmans performance the last decade thinking it’s good:

Sup my man. You ve been low key last few months…hope you’re not getting crushed by the residential real estate collapse happening virtually no where in America.

Immigration angle is interesting because of the job market. If much doesn’t get shifted to AI derived solutions, immigration has to be a big part of the future here. But otherwise I think density is similar in a lot of ways but you have to break things down, and in a lot of ways, use a seismic hazard map approach to 3 key categories. Places people go to work. Places people go to play. Places people go to retire. The population you need to break down based on 20-30 years of age let’s call it, the single and having fun crowd. 30-55, families etc. 55+ retirees. The more overlap you have for an area the better. You also need weight though to each category. Which has the longest duration? Which has the highest sensitivity to economic shifts. Etc. certain places are drawing big and the momentum is just increasing. Others will just be boring I think. A few will suffer.

MRNA stock price on 10/20/2021.....$335 Meanwhile, I tried finding even just ONE example of being wildly bullish or even opining on SF housing in any way to this dope. All I found was the below post, its the only post where I even mention SF... Here it is! Definitely mooning!

In October 2021 you were touting Tesla and Moderna and I said buy APTS. #stillmooning

Lol I don’t think this guy realizes we can all go back and read the thread posts. He lectured us on “housing” and today, despite no evidence of it, claims he was purely just referring to SF and a few other markets. He lectured us on his prowess with bubble stocks for the long haul(even in some posts mentioning thinking “years ahead” of everyone else) only to now claim he dumped them “just before they blew up”(despite zero evidence of that either)..it’s pretty funny. He does so using words and terminology that belong in the Reddit threads….but yea…. Teach us how to moon you little turd. Lol

So now we are back to the classic fools argument that any asset class, no matter how much of a longer term runway, that can possibly experience a 10-20% pullback, even if purely theoretical, is worth avoiding. Even if it greatly outperforms pretty much every other asset class during a turbulent market stretch. My god this guy is gold and the gift that keeps on giving, assuming it’s satire. If he s serious….. Oh, and now my long standing exposure to residential real estate in NJ and Florida is “lies, propaganda and nonsense”….this guy is too much. #stillmooning

Facts! LOL How it started: Citing FRED Claiming housing is terrible Boasting about bubble stonks How its going: Citing Wolfstreet Ignoring almost every housing market in the US but strangely SF Bay Area. Boasting about owning bonds #mooning

Lol ok. “Moon forevah!”… Got any other “long term trends” and stock picks for us? We are all open to em, even if you’re gonna disappear when they implode and then come back years later and say you sold them a few weeks later! We ll even let you take a victory lap on calling the implosion of an asset class that…checks notes…. Was flat to slightly up last year despite broader market weakness. Anyhow, don’t know what your fixation is with SF housing. Don’t really care either. You can be an expert on shitty crime, drug, and homeless filled liberal cities. Thread was and is about the overall housing market. People here know exactly what areas I invest in. It’s all good.

Huh? I don’t think I’ve ever used the term “moon forever” nor do I even really know what that means. You sound like some 25 year old fool on Stocktwits or Reddit. The type that buy stocks like Tesla and Moderna in October 2021. The posts are all here in this thread, although I’ve noticed you deleted a bunch in addition to a bunch of other stuff you blatantly lie about. Have a good day with your bonds.

Yea here. https://belugagroup.ru/en/investors/news/changes-in-the-beluga-vodka-brand-ownership-/#:~:text=Due to the current political,to the trademark in Russia. Reading this really just highlights the propaganda element to so much of our local media. China for instance, look at all the superbly branded “national security measures” and “sanctions” and “restrictions” that WE have put in place on them. Russia too. When we do it, it’s branded as patriotic and heroic. “Protecting our interests” even. When they sanction us or impose similar restrictions on their products we re the first to scream foul and cry about financial terrorism….we cut off Russian oil bc it’s “the right thing”…Russia threatens to cutoff nat gas to Europe! On no the humanitarian horrors! It’s all just a stupid game.

Even if they weren’t blocked, a lot of the export companies more or less gave up because it was impossible getting stuff through the process dealing with anything Russian made. I think Beluga even sold its international distribution rights. So it’s very tough, but doable. They bottles also have production dates so you can see when they were made. These were late 2021 before everyone went bananas.

Well, it’ll probably be worse going forward, especially in the US. You already had large portions of the country burdened by anti building government regulation. Crazy stuff like rent control too. But the cost of building was low. Anyone who was willing to put up with the bs could eventually get there. Today in many markets the financials don’t support or provide enough incentive to build more. So as we ve already seen, inventory will just remain tight. That’s what’s so laughable about all this “raise rates to kill inflation” nonsense….uhm, that’s not how you solve the inflation problem here…..but keep at it. People complain about insider trading at the congressional level, but you know what the number one asset class is amongst the establishment elite? Real estate.

Canadian housing the past few decades is gonna be the blueprint for the current US housing boom. It was wild hearing people talk about bubbles in residential after a 20-30% move up after largely a decade of negligible gains following GFC. It was very reminiscent of the screams of a tech bubble in 2013 after everything went up about 30%. Cycles typically see multiples added, not +1.2x. COVID really just purged existing inventory and brought in institutional dollars and those homes are now the equivalent of items in a safety deposit box. Underneath all the lies last year there was tons of money being raised for rentals and SFH at the institutional levels. Especially in good markets. This is exactly the type of asset you wanna own in the 3-5% inflation environment especially over the long haul. 80% of non homeowners believe they’ll never be able to afford a home. That’s the type of privilege or luxury purchase mentality that puts a floor under a market. But then realize how much of the housing stock is now 20+ years old and the changing demographics. Most younger homeowners don’t want boomers McMansion they want new and modern homes. Only way out is through builders and builders seem to have learned their GFC lessons. It’s gonna be wild. And yea, I too try to be pretty transparent with what I’m buying and selling. I don’t think there’s anyone who regularly hangs here that isn’t aware of pretty much what I own, how I own it, and the size I own it. So to each their own. This guy above is a bit of an exception because he came in here all guns blazing, mocking and talking shit to a lot of us during that October 2021 period, touting how no one knew anything, how we were idiots, and how he saw the future of investing with his stocks like Tesla and Moderna. This of course did tend to overlap with the top, just not the top for housing….

I’ll just bump this one. 2 years ago this chump is citing FRED and telling us about long term trends and stocks like Tesla at $1t and Moderna at $350 a share and today he s citing Wolfstreet and saying he sold his long term stocks 2 months after pimping them.

Yes. Wolfstreet vs FRED facts. Run along now little boy.

Lolololol. ok lemonade stand CFO…I’m done. We re arguing Wolfstreet vs FRED data…. I almost get the sense that you’re oblivious to what you’re doing here. Wolfstreet…lol

Ok changing my guess of author to Lemonade stand then. Edit: anyhow here’s SF…just a weee little bit better than Moderna but who’s counting? https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ATNHPIUS41884Q

Lol sure. Wanna do that Tesla vs APTS chart from 10/2021-now, again? I mean you can accuse me of whatever you want, but I don’t think there is a single person on this site who isn’t aware I’ve been long sunbelt and long housing while shitting on crappily run blue state cities since pretty much July 2020. You touted shitcos and fad stocks as “the new way to invest” and then disappeared for two years after they all blew up. Then return doing a victory lap on a housing implosion that….never happened.

Uber too imo. Taxis largely used to be city features due to density and network. Now most non rural places in America you click two bottoms in your phone and have a low cost ride outside in a matter of minutes. The social element expansion brought about by the internet is a huge deal. When you think of what started the whole trend during the Industrial Revolution, it was social proximity and opportunity. Considering it takes 30-45 minutes to get to many parts of the city from other parts of the city, which is the same if not longer than the time it takes from much of the suburbs, it’s baffling so many of them just don’t know any better.

My guess is an author or something. Just a guess though. Anyway, here’s the national data. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA Oct 2021 certainly don’t look like the top me. I actually closed on a NJ property early Sept ‘21 and it’s easily worth 25% more today. Even in outlier shitholes like SF I doubt anyone who bought in late 2021 with a 3% 30 year fixed is feeling too bad…and if you bought in the more sensible regions, well, you’re sitting pretty. So this did in fact, to me, seem like a confusing victory lap. Anyone wanna wager who gets their money back first? Someone who bought a house in SF Bay Area in October 2021, or someone who bought Moderna stock in October 2021? You can include dividends in your calculations! FYI https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FLSTHPI https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NJSTHPI

Bump

So a recession? Lol

Who needs to boycott Bud Light when you have great vodka? My guy came through with some goods for Americas birthday. No Gold unfortunately.

Lol yup. People continuously play this game and it’s dumb. They try to oversimplify a complex and evolving market with junk like “future returns will likely be poor”, “gee just follow the Fed”, “recession is just around the corner”, etc, etc. All predicated on hindsight. Just like with the Fed and it’s pitiful inflation journey, those that constantly stare at the rear view mirror often miss what’s ahead of them. Even when it’s obvious. For one, I’m sad we no longer hear people boasting about their iBonds, huge cash positions, and tremendous savviness slinging inverse ETFs on a weekly basis….