Gregmal

I dont disagree. FWIW I sold my puts on the run down and have this on the radar for a re entry either with puts or an outright short. The product is 100% a fad...its a Nordic Track with an iPad with Youtube for $40 a month... Ive been a member at some super duper high end and expensive gyms, and at times tried all the new buzz worthy fitness stuff. The truth is, for 90% of the population(the 90% of the top 10% that can actually afford this shit), this stuff is fun and captivating in the beginning and then you just get tired of it. The bull case for NordicTrack, I mean Pelaton, is not that they'll sell a million machines, its the recurring revenue and subscriptions. To me, the on demand stuff is neat, and Im still trying to tally the meaningfulness of that. But at $40 a month or whatever? When people arguably won't pay $40 a month anymore for a full TV package... or they can get a full gym membership for $30 a month? Or even get fitness videos for free on Youtube and the like? So yea, its kind of a no brainer, but it'll come down to timing so if you're going to put the trade on you either need to buy puts, or give yourself a very cut and clear catalyst but also a running start into it because once everyone else notices the catalyst the opportunity goes away. I typically like revisiting these a couple months ahead of the lockup expiration. Its important to remember, this isn't a SV tech company. Where all the employees are snobby dickbags and dont value money, ie, they'll hold their stock until they become billionaires because worst case they just move to the next venure and try again in a year...Its Beyond Meat or Tilray... normal people working at a company that just found themselves sitting on a restricted amount of life changing money, made in a short period of time, and they likely cant pass that up. The VC folks know this as well, which is typically why you see these get obliterated in the 2-3 month period sandwiching the lockup expiration, so typically 2 months out is an ideal time to start laying the ground work for your position.

Bought a few shares of RH after hours looking for a quick buck. All I can say is, wow... really Berkshire? LOL

selling some DIS EDIT: closed rest of DIS at $149. Will leave all the mumbo jumbo bs and 2023 projections to others to figure out....happy with $131 to here in 3 weeks.

Sounds like the big banks

Trimmed a little more CRSP, and MSGN

Well, theyre not traditional value investors, so I'd gander many here would say that their returns dont count or something...

Modestly increased my position in the World's Most Famous Arena @266

Haha, didn't even notice. Wish I bought Aircastle.

Looks like it paid off well for you. Nice call! Hardly out of the woods yet, but hoping to get there soon. If you don't mind, what is the plan for situations like these? Is there a % or price in mind, or something else? I always wonder about these - would you say it's special/unique - situations. Even with a or multiple pop(s), but what is suppose to be the exit? Its never really "this" or "that" exactly, if that makes sense. I'll try to explain further the thought process. I really love looking for investments that some may call orphaned, or otherwise just check a lot of boxes in terms of things that put people off for no good reason. So with something like AYR, you have that in spades. Its been covered much more in detail on the AYR thread, but summarizing, you first had the marijuana bubble craze and this was all retail fueled. All institutional or sophisticated investors basically wrote it off then. The bubble popped, and all of the retails folks then took a bath as well. Somewhere in between AYR came along as a SPAC convert. Again, refer to the AYR thread if you wish, but it just made sense for me. The adding into the investment of, which I did plenty of, was a little nuts given the volatility, but I was fortunately to kind of catch the falling knife in bulk closer to the $10 number rather than the mid teens where I took the first tracking position. It's now about a 4-5% position for me, which is a reasonable one. One the technical side, yea theres been a couple days where you've had several $ swings in the share price for no real reason. I typically have a rule of thumb that if anything I buy goes +15-20% or more the same day, just sell it, take the extraordinary gains, and re-evaluate tomorrow, basically in the same exact spot as you were prior, minus your fat one day gain. I don't really have a set price target per say. I think a floor price target would be high teens or so. 7.5x $110M estimated 2020 EBITDA for a growth company like this isn't unreasonable. However on the other hand, I am also inclined to just let things play out and see if they can hit numbers and see where this goes. This is definitely a sector/special situation where you are capable of getting the retail rush back and going whacky; in which case, again AYR, is kind of positioned to be a premier marijuana play vs poo poo like Cronos and Tilray.

Looks like it paid off well for you. Nice call! Hardly out of the woods yet, but hoping to get there soon.

about -35%

Any UK Lawyer that wants to relocate to Russia to save taxes probably deserves to be in jail. Seriously Russia? You would think they go to Luxembourg first. Why is that? Its not just the big law firms, its the consulting and larger accounting(especially Big 4) as well. First, Luxembourg isn't a huge hub for most of these firms; they may have an office there, but typically(unless its a Mossac Fonseca type firm) they only have a few employees and one moderate sized office there. Whereas any firm of size who has a London office also probably have at least one, usually more though, locations in Russia, Hong Kong, Dubai, etc. So whereas the entire firm may have a presence of one office and 6 employees in Luxembourg, they've got 4 offices with two dozen people in each in places like Russia. So if you're a junior partner or senior associate, going from $200 GBP a year plus bonus, to equity partner making $200K a month with a $1M+ quarterly partnership distribution... you're really going to stick around in London paying 55-60%, or request to go to an underserved location(where the firm is trying to build out their book of business), get paid to relocate, and pay 11% taxes? St. Pete for instance, if you like London, is pretty awesome. Russia is a little like the Wild West, but its crazy how badly people misrepresent it. I missunderstood your post. I thought it was about a wealthy lawyer considering to relocate to Russia, which makes no sense. In case you got a job assignment, it’s like everything else with a $1M + in income, you can live pretty well in Russia, but you won’t do too shabby in London either. FWIW, the top marginal tax rate in the UK is 45% not 55-60% as you stated, vs Russia 30%. Who knows, I'd assume it is similar as it is in the States where you get dinged at certain levels which add to the totals. UK guys normally cite a 50-60% figure. I know for a fact the ones in Russia are paying around 10%, low teens or something is what Ive consistently been told. Whatever, I just make them money(or try to), their taxes are their problem. The point stands, these EU countries that think the solution to everything is tax the heck out of it, are losing their tax payer base. UAE is also beginning to become a hot spot for white collar European professionals tired of the tax man.

Added some VITR.ST

Any UK Lawyer that wants to relocate to Russia to save taxes probably deserves to be in jail. Seriously Russia? You would think they go to Luxembourg first. Why is that? Its not just the big law firms, its the consulting and larger accounting(especially Big 4) as well. First, Luxembourg isn't a huge hub for most of these firms; they may have an office there, but typically(unless its a Mossac Fonseca type firm) they only have a few employees and one moderate sized office there. Whereas any firm of size who has a London office also probably have at least one, usually more though, locations in Russia, Hong Kong, Dubai, etc. So whereas the entire firm may have a presence of one office and 6 employees in Luxembourg, they've got 4 offices with two dozen people in each in places like Russia. So if you're a junior partner or senior associate, going from $200 GBP a year plus bonus, to equity partner making $200K a month with a $1M+ quarterly partnership distribution... you're really going to stick around in London paying 55-60%, or request to go to an underserved location(where the firm is trying to build out their book of business), get paid to relocate, and pay 11% taxes? St. Pete for instance, if you like London, is pretty awesome. Russia is a little like the Wild West, but its crazy how badly people misrepresent it.

Perhaps we interpreted each other differently. I was replying to the notion "worst case in we become like Europe"... Admittedly, and previously said, Scandinavian countries are an exception. I was not looking at the path that seems to be implied by your suggestion; leave the US(diversify out of) and find investments elsewhere, such as in Europe. That though, is certainly an option, and probably even a soundly simple and low risk way to mitigate some risk over the next 12+ months rather than go cash or go short here in US.

Doesnt the idea of injecting capital(raising) conflict with the idea of either wiping out, or paying out existing securities? I would think in order for the new capital to make sense within the parameters of all that is part of this equation(congress and the appearance of enriching Hf's) you simply need to collapse the legacy securities into common(something thats been discussed) and thats really it. Its simple, and everything else is too messy. You cant raise capital to pay out a settlement given the political noise that would create. And you cant raise new capital after wiping out the old. They also need to move fast(re:not complicated and drawn out). Say what you want, but the current system still works fine even while common and pref continued to get screwed, and if there is one super, duper, easy piece of meat for a newly elected socialist to throw their constituents, it would be to put the kibosh on a "hedge fund pay day"....easily doable with an executive order or by re appointing her people.

Oh, give me a break. It's all non-relevant nonsense-talk from you. Greg, how about you asking me for a link to the best European bank that I know of? LOL seriously? Thats your response? Ive begun to think you are the type that if you cant plug it into an Excel sheet you cant/dont understand it. Which is fine. But pointing out variables that effect market conditions and discussing strategy for that, is useful to some, and could be to others; if they were able to appreciate it for what it is. So, if the US basically becoming another Europe is "non-relevant" to you, well thats your decision. I really will try to look for the 2016 election thread sometime. Where a Trump victory was basically a non existent possibility to most here. Caught with the pants down and in that case, it was more an opportunity cost; things didn't go down like they will if Warren/Sanders wins, but people missed out on entire sectors going ballistic and missed a lot of easy money to be had. SLX(a sector ETF) did 50% in like 3 months, XLF over 33%, heck ever BRK did nearly 50% over the next 12... hogwash though I know! Nonsense talk!

Last I checked this was an investing forum, and last I checked essentially every European index has gone nowhere in the last decade as the combination of their open border policies, rich entitlements, lax working environments/schedules, low birth rate, and internal squabbling, to name a few, has collectively left the region in a state stagnation. Cherry-picking Germany as some shining light of economic strength without mentioning the economic destruction in places like Greece, Italy, Spain, and Portugal is at best irresponsible. Germany benefits economically as part of the EU for the exact same reasons that Greece, Italty, etc. struggle. And what has all this to do with being a stock picker? - You're posting like an indexer. For starters, sailing is easier when you have a weather report. And downright easy when you know which way the wind will be blowing. Europe has consistently been a drag on the global economy. Basically every year since 2010 we've been dealing with one crisis to be or another from them. I continually deal with white collar Europeans who cant wait to get out. UK lawyers who have to relocate to Russia and Australia to avoid getting walloped with 55% tax rates. French executives who live like the poor folks Rulenumberone likes to refer to in Silicon Valley. Belgians getting cranked for nearly 40% of every dividend or tiny sliver of interest they earn on top of outrageously burdensome tax authority requests. The folks in Germany are generally the best off, but even there, its admittedly done in spite of the government and all the bullshit being peddled. The Scandinavian countries are definitely an outlier though. But acting like Europe is some model for what US people should get used to, well, thats preposterous. As Ive said, there is a reason everything American trades at a premium. So with that said, if I see out on the very far horizon, a Warren iceberg, well, Im damn sure going to keep an eye on it, even if its not currently expected to get anywhere near my boat.

The point of the thread was to throw around ideas that could work leading into an election where she is the top democrat candidate, and/or if she wins. Theres no purpose to debate if Trump is removed; Pence takes over...same deal as we have now. Lest how quick we forget how 90% of this board got caught with their pants down with their "assumptions" last election. I should go back and look for that thread. It was hilarious. Anyways, little harm in looking at even long shot trade ideas. At the rate most people discard ideas anyway, it shouldn't take much time. COBF and most "value guys" typically fit the following equation: here s top quality tier A company = "I'll pass, too expensive" here s a dirt cheat, average company = "I'll pass, its got too much hair" Always an excuse not to invest. Like I said, no harm in browsing.

Sold my over the weekend BRK trade position. Earnings were not as hoped for, but as expected. As they say though, good things happen when you go to the front of the net, ~$4 per share in 5 hours...

Was Trump winning the Presidency not a ~20% event, THE NIGHT BEFORE? Let alone a year plus prior? I see no harm in communal brainstorming and speculating. Personally, the best ideas are the ones that overlap many scenarios in the proverbial Venn diagram. They hedge my risks and present me as many ways to win as possible. Always be on the lookout for those.

It doesn’t need to make sense. Running for President or any of the higher offices is much like holding a senior executive position at a public company. You only need to get in for it to be life changing. So say whatever you have to in order to get there. Results are irrelevant, as once it’s time to judge(in and of itself quite a while as your base will swallow excuses for a long time as well) you’ve already gotten what you want.

Please let us and Mr. Buffett know where we/he can make a 12% return with minimal risk of permanent capital loss. I have trouble finding investments that meet these criteria where I can put a couple of millions at work… If there isn’t 12% involved in BRK equity then what’s the point in owning it? If there is, then why isn’t he buying it back? Old man has lost it, and he knows it.

I think there’s been more than enough evidence presented to conclude that perhaps Buffett has lost it. Which is independent of the market being in a bubble or not in a bubble.

I was reading somewhere that guns stocks/sales did far better under Obama than Trump for the reason mentioned by Bizaro. Gun sales can remain elevated in perpetuity if there is the constant threat of killing the second amendment. No one is running to the gun store with a Republican in office. Somewhat half heartedly, I would think certain pot stocks could do well also as legalization is basically a blanket policy for all the dems. Maybe someone can create a 3 P's ETF. Pawn shops, pot stocks, and potato chips.... Personally, I'm inclined to look at short opportunities simply because, like with other stuff, you can also kind of be right without Warren getting elected. Things may just slow down on their own. Warren getting elected would just inject steroids to the main vein. You'd also think NNN REITS would go ballistic. I dont want to do a complete reshuffle as Warren is a low probability event, and I think Im decently market natural already, but you can never be too prepared and if the cost is low to put on a few trades with optionality, why not?