Gregmal

If you operate opportunistically, and employ high concentrations, its not really that unbelievable(although certainly not an easily replicable strategy). It also, kind of filling in some deduced details, probably explains Mr. RuleNumberOnes ranting about lack of market volatility; he exploits them and feels the Fed is costing him opportunities. If you are highly disciplined, this is probably the best strategy, but the downside is you arent invested heavily much of the time and should the market just stay in a largely peaceful state, you're losing money. But the opportunities are there. CVS earlier this year was a no brainer in the $50s. I know a bunch of us here traded DVA a bit back, quickly going from $50s to $70s in a few months. AXP in 2016 another. Target a few years before that. WFC right now is probably the closest thing to a special situation like that, but probably doesnt offer the same upside. But if you're willing to take big concentration risk, this is probably the easiest way to achieve hugely outsized returns with low adjusted risk.

Wow. So mostly plain vanilla stocks like what the people here buy. Just better timing lol

If I had to guess, it seems like he'd probably have a bit of a better understanding than most with respect to the market darlings. From there, just wait on market driven and non fundamental panic points, and then buy the stocks with high yo-yo effects. Probably avoid things like earnings, etc. Without the merits of debating names, you could probably pull stuff like this off with names like SHOP, TTD, MDB if you're full risk on, but even stuff like AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN, MSFT, etc if you're risk off. clarification: by "yo-yo effect" I mean a high correlation to whatever your action is predicated on. If you snap your wrist, the yo-yo goes in the direction you desire. If you are betting on the S&P reverting, said security moves with (x) times the S&P, if you're betting on SSS moving, XYZ will move on SSS, if you're betting on credit quality erosion, ABC with move 4x in the direction you wish if you are right on credit erosion. Sounds simple but can be more difficult than one would think. Also quite different than just buying WFC and waiting for some rerating in perpetuity.

Please support your point that central banks have removed market fluctuations! With facts, not feelings. Well for one, just look at the VIX. But of course a fluctuation is all relative. Some people buy 1% dips and naturally they'll be more active than folks looking for 10%.

RuleNumberOne, you can be a dick, but so can all of us. I do think you may go overboard at times, but again, so do some of us(especially myself). But in terms of approach, you are 100% right. I read something a while ago and did some research on the subject, and while I forget the exact numbers, a HUGE percentage of overall stock returns occur in very brief periods of time. Timing is everything. I find your ranting to be a useful dose of "the other side of the coin" that few else here bring to the table. Of course, no one is forced to read any of it. Heck, if theyre soft enough, they can always ignore you. I also concur, the folks who obsess over modeling and whatnot, often have poor returns and often consistently get hung up on stupid stuff that prevents them from seeing the big picture. Out of school I went into the biz overly focused on that kind of shit because thats what your told is important. But its not and most of it is a total distraction and downright waste of time.

This was actually a good read and probably bolstered my belief in what I wrote earlier. Lets see what the confirmed numbers look like in a week or maybe a month. But so far, you have barely 100 total cases outside of China and 0 deaths. You also have a death count that is bolstered by people with other conditions and complications, which is always important to consider as well, even with the common flu. A week later, maybe some 300 total non China(although like 90% of regions close to China), and just 1 outside death(in Hong Kong).

Blue Orca, one fo the better activist short sellers I follow put out the follow report this past week. https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5a81b554be42d6b09e19fc09/t/5e3b7688fe4a570a61057022/1580955280455/Blue+Orca+is+Short+China+Medical+System+Holdings+Ltd+%28HK+867%29.pdf Something rarely seen, CMS, maybe a half hour after the report hit, requested a trading halt to their stock, which has remained in effect the past couple days. Today, they released this. http://www.cms.net.cn/kangzhe/PicNew/ImgStocks/2020-02-07/80cb3ef1-1f54-4915-bc1a-35c713abc963.pdf Stock should open for trading next week. Last few Blue Orca pieces have been pretty lethal. Hong Kong is still kind of a tricky place for investors, and thus these type of situations seem a little easier to find than here is the states.

sold last of my nvta. thanks akram

Gregmal - thanks for MSGN idea - out at $17.05 Shrinking share count very compelling. Nice idea. Hope to get another shot. Cheers. Good when people make money. Took some off around there yesterday as well. Its a boring company but should grind out some value, especially if ones trades it. $14-$15 is just too cheap.

Ditto. 1.3x book is not a bad price for Berk esp. as it's a partially "defensive" stock with the cash and traditional businesses, and also exposed to market upside thru Apple Indeed, on a relative basis its a lot more exciting to me here at 228 than it was at 21x.xx prior to the market going apeshit. You've probably got some favorable news flow heading into the AGM as well.

Added a little more BRK

shorted some 867.hk at the open

It was actually a very easy judgment call with the market, I am just surprised the masses caught on as soon as they did and aw shucks wouldn't you know it we're back at the highs. But regarding the virus, it was really simple. The virus is more or less contained to China. China will suppress any major issue. The only way this gets out badly, is if there is some really, really, really bad uncontrollable Resident Evil style situation. Super unlikely. And with that contained and nothing of news or material purpose going on anywhere else in the world; back up we go! It was rather predictable.

See what most people dont realize is that the onus falls on you the individual, not the news outlet or "propaganda machine". Example, a major headline front page on CNN's website. "Marco Rubio's mind-blowing explanation of his impeachment vote" So lets look at this here. First, why, out of all the senators and congressmen, is Rubio targeted? (answer, probably because of his party affiliation) Now lets look at the choice of words. mind-blowing, is deliberately used to frame the subsequent info as abnormal, extraordinary, and defying logic. attach mind blowing to impeachment vote, with the above framing, casts a negative and dubious connotation to what his vote was(which was a NO). So now, whats happened here is that an event occurred. But what occurred, Senate voted(or Rubio voted), was not what was reported, but rather, they've slanted the presentation to 1) insinuate that Rubio is crazy, and that 2) his vote is ridiculous They've surrounded everything with a bias, and the intent is to brainwash the reader into thinking that such behavior is so "ridiculous", that they give no thought to the original issue, being that, "the senate voted" and are much less likely to form their own opinion. Further, if I wanted to be extraordinary like CNN, I could easily make the case that CNN and all of its employees deserve to be treated no different than the KKK. After all, both organizations peddle narratives that encroach upon the constitutional rights and the pursuit of happiness with the respect to anyone whom disagrees with them. Both, I am sure can theoretically have "some good people" but the overall message is not one of unity but divisiveness and hatred of those whom are different. In fact, CNN regularly promotes propaganda that undermines and attacks the President of the United States, and regularly roots against American interests in order to further push their agenda. See how easy(and dangerous) all this shit is?

The whole Russian propaganda thing is clear bullshit. It’s no different at all than the Trump “fake news” cries. It’s meant to train people like dogs to immediately write off anything that doesn’t vibe with said parties agenda. Those that scream either, do so arrogantly assuming the recipients are idiots and not capable of reading and deciphering, responsibly and in a manner capable of figuring out the truth, for themselves.

Its not a Zerohedge report. Its in multiple places. https://www.yahoo.com/news/cocktail-flu-hiv-drugs-appears-124753996.html

100% agree. Its funny, everyone looses their shit if politics come up ever because "its an investing board". Here, incidentally, a situation with great investment ramifications? And everyone is indulging in fear mongering and running around like chickens with their heads cut off. The market tanked 600 points Friday in fear of the weekend. This weekend? A whopping total of 1 new case in the US and 1 death outside of China(even though the person dying was Chinese, from Wuhan). Its crazy people still believe much of whats put out there by the media. Personally, I'd expect futures open up a couple hundred points. But based on hysteria maybe we'll get lucky and see more of a sell off. Based on "to date" knee jerks, 1 confirmed US case and that "1 maybe" in NYC probably equates to another -500 day..

Lost amongst the pandemonium Friday after the close PICO announced and expansion of its share repurchase program. PICO is a bad investment and basically a slow liquidation play at best, but they've been remarkably consistent repurchasing their shares at prices averaging mid 10s and even 11s. With firepower authorization equal to basically half of the current market cap and ~$60M remaining plus a lot of bag holders with no interest selling shares around here, buying at/around/under $10 seems like a pretty reasonable and safe trade, even if its only for a few percent back to this mid 10s. This has no correlation to all the current hysteria either, and really only relies on the continuance of the status quo in Vidlers core markets. http://www.digitaljournal.com/pr/4575180

I dont buy Cramer's argument. It is valid, but meaningless IMO. Wall Street is filled with money obsessed whores. Add to the list the plethora of underperforming hedge funds and money managers who preach a "value investing" style. If there's money to be made in energy, they'll go there. Just look at the activity on sites like this with the tobacco stocks and lately even stuff like XOM. While its admirable on the surface(but also more a manipulative look at me Im woke or whatever move by the pension funds and such) it won't hold. If its green, buyers will go there. If, over the long run, pension fund managers underperform they'll face pressure and ultimately start letting the things that matter dictate their investments. Its just easy right now when you can buy Tesla and claim to be a socially responsible fund.

This was actually a good read and probably bolstered my belief in what I wrote earlier. Lets see what the confirmed numbers look like in a week or maybe a month. But so far, you have barely 100 total cases outside of China and 0 deaths. You also have a death count that is bolstered by people with other conditions and complications, which is always important to consider as well, even with the common flu.

I was reviewing some information with a couple folks for a portfolio company today, and of distinct notation was a recent corporate action taken. We were trying to pin down where this came from. After a bit of analysis, the read was that the move was made out of weakness rather than strength. This was determined because the CEO is a bit of a character, and a boastful, boisterous cheerleader. It was concluded that his reasoning for action had to be to fill a need that was expected to be filled elsewhere, but didn't materialize. How did we know? Because if it had, he would have announced it a few minutes later.... Same sort of deducing can be used here. I dont doubt all of the ground work details, and I sympathize with those effected, but am of the belief that what we are hearing about and its impacts on us here in the US of A, are entirely blown out of proportion and unwarranted. Yes, China may play games with their news outlets and censor people. But here? Fear sells and these news outlets are propaganda peddlers and this virus is a money maker for them in regards to clicks and page views. Its is and will be drummed up as much as humanly possible. Not to be callous, but I'll be concerned when I can no longer count on one hand the number of deaths in one specific state. Or maybe collectively hear about a few dozen total deaths in America.

There will certainly be no shortage of Chinesepeoplephobia in America now....

got a little more pcyo

Its actually quite funny. Multiple days ago now, I accidentally started a thread on Simon Property Group in the General Discussion section. It still hasn't been moved to the correct place. Put up a thread with even a mouse fart sized hint of politics, Sanjeev will be here to move it in like 27.3333 minutes flat. And fwiw, ILMN had earnings which is why it was down.

Indeed all true. One interesting theory Ive heard is the wealth gap explanation. The same premise regarding how the top 1% keep getting richer at the expense of the middle class while the poor stay stuck....in business terms, the wealth gap involves a select few companies basically controlling the avenues to resources the rest of business world depends upon, and just slowly erodes middle and lower class companies. I dont think theres a correct answer, but its just odd seeing so many once respected companies looking like shit and thinking, what does the market do to these companies if we see things turn south?