Gregmal

I am actually looking forward to reading all the "Ill let others get it first" posts from folks who feigned concern and expressed partisan fueled, fabricated outrage at the humanitarian disaster unfolding as they screamed about "all those deaths!" and what could have been done to protect everyone. Like...eh, getting a vaccine to market for people!

To the extent that the virus is not out of control where I live, I will likely not get the vaccine for a while. In total, my county has less than 2000 cases, with the bulk being in nursing homes. The places I regularly travel are not bad either. However, should there be a noted uptick, or should I need to travel somewhere with a different profile, I would likely consider getting the vaccine. I only started getting the flu shot after having kids, and never really had a problem with the flu either. Just use common sense precautions.

The timing was fortunate and given how things have played out, I wouldn't be shocked to see things keep heading lower but with the very quick and outsized move I've always found it prudent to rebalance so that when things do settle you arent giving back your gains. For instance the QQQ puts went from 5 to about 12 in a couple days. VIX calls from $3.xx to 9. So take off excess, chuck it into "core" non speculative portion of portfolio, and work the rest to maximize leverage. VIX especially can cause profits to vaporize quickly. 35+ has historically not lasted long. The AAPL as well as most momo has shown a crack. So I think it makes sense that the sell off would play out sooner than later, if indeed its going to be one of those bottom falls out moments.

It was the only thing I had on my list of things to do today. Sadly a day late. Congrats on the timing. Thanks. Sold most of these today and rolled a portion down the chain, same November expiration. Also added to AAPL puts. Sold the AAPL puts and rolled a portion into closer dated Sept 25s, lightened up on the index puts as well. Bought some BIDU

Cant you buy it and then sell it to an LLC owned by your parents? A lot depends on how you are financing it.

Hmmm....maybe the COBF doctor psychiatrist can weigh in?

Ha! No one is upset. Its quite hilariously amusing. The "oh so serious" extinction level virus that we MUST! take every precaution against until we have a vaccine, EXCEPT! unless we want to protest/destroy property/shoot people/assault cops, now potentially has a vaccine and the tune changes as it always does. It can not be trusted! But if Biden wins it will be "the right thing to do"! and Joe will have "solved" the crisis.....Nobody wonders why the usual suspects always have the same stances when it comes to certain topics. I mean, hey, if you now all of a sudden dont trust Fauci, "the expert" everyone loved and claimed in the preceding months was a godsend, because you believe its "advantageous" to Trump....well, ok, dont get the vaccine... Keep doing whatever you've been doing since you have all the answers anyway.....you just might get dizzy and pass out as you chase your tail in circles. And dont walk into any goal posts...they might not be where you remembered them. You seem to move them a lot without knowing it.

We MUST listen to Fauci! He's the only expert we have! If Fauci promotes getting the vaccine prior to November......Dont do it! Trump must be up to something.... Same "stuff" as always from the usual suspects.

It was the only thing I had on my list of things to do today. Sadly a day late. Congrats on the timing. Thanks. Sold most of these today and rolled a portion down the chain, same November expiration. Also added to AAPL puts.

First, it was "wear a mask, its the only vaccine we have!", then its "dont get the vaccine, it will help Trump!". After the election, assuming Biden wins, the vaccine will be the "responsible thing to do"...The narrative is always changing with these chumps.

To me, your comment seems to imply that: A) you view the Fed much more influenced by COVID case numbers than employment numbers. Or perhaps, B) you believe that the COVID case numbers are so strongly correlated to the employment numbers so that they're basically the same thing (i.e. if COVID cases decline to zero, employment will quickly return to high levels). Or, C) the Fed cares a lot about asset bubbles and sees this one, so they'll reduce stimulus even if employment hasn't recovered. Is one of these views basically your position? Because the evidence I've seen seems to suggest that the Fed is likely to be reluctant to reduce stimulus until employment numbers return to levels that cause significant inflation. So, I'm curious if you think A, B, or C above is true, or if there's something else that I don't understand about your reasoning that will help bridge that gap for me. Thanks! B. But my bearish view is based on a large amount of data points I track, not just based on COVID alone. Those data points led me to sell out in mid Feburary and I was feeling like a fool for two more weeks back then. Right now those data points look even more exaggerated than in Feb. However, I've been weighing the two scenarios since last night. Sector rotation vs everything crash. I start to lean against the case of a sector rotation right now. When AAPL, TSLA, SHOP etc go bust, traditional value stocks could have their day. People who bought AAPL and TSLA have never bothered to look at what happened in 2000. Cisco was the equivalent of AAPL and TSLA today. When Cisco went into bust, it went down 90% while traditional value stocks like BRK went up 100% Looks like the market starts to crack today. Is this the top? Is it going to resume higher? ::) I've been full cash since earlier this week. I haven't figured out if the market is going to puke-it-all-out or do a sector rotation at this moment. But I do think the COVID situation is improving too fast and the market is too optimistic that we'll at least get a severe pull back if not a bigger correction. I dont place too much weigh on the technical stuff, but also try to not completely ignore it. The opening reversal in momo names yesterday morning was as textbook an exhaustion puke as Ive ever seen. (example CRWD, although there were many, many others)

I suppose everything just goes over your head. You personally having been in an auto/aviation related accident has zero bearing on whether your thoughts prior where that it was dangerous or not dangerous. The numbers are the numbers. 200k deaths and 94% have underlying issues. For most people, it isn't a big deal. For certain groups it is. If you are 25 and get it, there isn't much to worry about. If you are 25 and happen to be one of the rare ones to die, that still doesnt change the fact that for that age group, most people will be fine. Older folks are super high risk, and Cain was in his mind 70's. But because he had downplayed it, the left "got him"....Nice! Maybe my perception of risk is skewed, or maybe I'm just not chicken little. Remember, there's many here still claiming the sky is falling. Its been falling since February and frankly, I'm shocked it hasn't hit the ground yet. Whatever are we going to do? Will it ever stop falling?

November IWM and QQQ puts

I am scared of flying. I go on an airplane and it does not have an incident. Whew, I got lucky! I am not scared of flying, I go on an airplane and it has an incident. Damn it, I should have listened to the people who were afraid of flying!

Speaking of AirBNB, word is that this was Ackman's SPAC target. Take it for what you will.

You have inadvertently clarified the major fault lines in this thread. If you downplay the risks of driving, it absolutely changes the risk level of driving. You drive a little faster, run yellow lights, text, drive after a beer. And risk doesn't rise linearly, so small behaviour changes dramatically increase your risk. And it doesn't just change your risk, you increase the risk for everyone else on the road. the estimated risk of a pedestrian being killed is approximately 9% if they are hit at a speed of 30 mph. The risk at an impact speed of 40 mph is much higher, at approximately 50%. The same thing happens when you downplay the risk of a pandemic. These are just faulty assumptions. I dont think driving is risky at all, and I dont do any of those things. I also dont think the pandemic is an extinction level event, but I wear a mask and keep my distance... What basis do you have to form the conclusion that someone who doesnt think driving is super dangerous has to be someone who is reckless/careless?

Ah yes, the "he downplayed the virus and died from it" subject. If I downplay the risks of driving my car, and then die in an auto accident, it doesnt change the reality of how safe/unsafe driving is. But it may be a "gotcha" point for people who dont like me or something. Anyway, Cain was what? 75?

They probably got their employees all excited by calling them back in...creating this big production, only to tell them to go home since it was only a one off gig for a "do as I say not as I do" politician and that normal people arent allowed to get haircuts yet....

https://www.yahoo.com/news/video-footage-shows-pelosi-san-201038226.html Nancy following the science! I'm sure they all still dine eloquently, while everyday citizens are told this type of stuff is "too dangerous"...

I'm not really buying as much as shifting or repositioning/recycling capital. Ive probably been a net seller/cash builder the past month.

Also swapped some RBACU into CFIIU. Big moves!

The global warming rabbit hole I think is much simpler. There is sufficient evidence that it is occurring. But there is zero credibility amongst the "experts"(again, primarily pure academics with zero real world or business experience) in terms of implementing an effective and efficient solution. Nor have they demonstrated the ability to ever determine accurate figures that correlate well to reducing the issue. Every "global warming" initiative to date, has more or less been a financial black hole and a get rich quick scheme for many friends and associates of the policy makers. So, at some point, its fair to ask them to put up or shut up, because nothing they've proposed to date has really been worth listening to. With COVID, its basically just scream loud from the mountain tops, cite scary charts and scream "200,000 DEATHS!"(I am guessing that milestone will be a major celebration point for some), but as was consistent with a lot of the financial work done as far back as March(IIRC Brooklyn Investor did a nice piece on this) it just doesnt translate to economic disaster or long term stock market disarray. So being bearish since March, and then wailing at people who didnt buy into the "extinction level event" narrative because of "bbbbut covid cases went up" and then saying things like "stonks" with sarcasm, may make one feel better about reading it totally wrong, but it totally misses the bigger financial picture; the financial picture is ultimately what I'd imagine most on these type of forums are interested in.

Small adds to TWTR and ARE

Hows this looking? Maybe a week's notice for everyone to get their last crack in at the politics section?

As I said, it doesnt matter what you have to say, as you have demonstrated over and over that you are a habitual liar. The strategy of never committing but always insinuating gives the worm wiggle room to say "see I was right" when it goes his way, but also, favorably to say "dont put words in my mouth, I never said that"...when it doesnt. Keep your head up Doc. Hopefully the skools reopen soon and you can get back to your pulpit with that PHD!