Gregmal

Yes, I posted here(just in case anyone questions it) https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/prty-party-city-(short)/msg397196/#msg397196 Was a popular thread as you can see. But there's a lot like this now. Stuff that is just entirely inevitable given whats mandated. Had mentioned others a few weeks ago like CHK, WLL(just filed), and some others. Couldn't get it together when all was well and debt available to everyone...now? Toast. Almost a sure thing. My natural inclinations are to pick off good longs. But along the way there are safer and surer bets such as these. Easier IMO than the airlines or cruise ships. Those at least have a reasonable shot at assistance and a case they were healthy before all this. Ford is probably a pretty decent hedge bet on the short side as well. Poorly managed, highly indebted, changing auto landscape and massive freeze up in sales is a bad recipe.

Party City short to 0.

Yea. But shouldn't those people have some dough to tide them over though this? Plus calling 200k a year households middle class is quite a stretch. No matter the location. Isn't NYC median household income something like 60k? Well if you eliminate all the homeless people its probably much higher...j/k I do know plenty of families who would argue otherwise. I consider them dumbasses but a few particularly. Husband and wife make combined north of $300k. Nanny for the kids, Porsche and Escalade cars, Vacations and Eurotrips multiple times a year, dinner at Le Bernardin once a week... if checks stopped tomorrow they'd be belly up by May 1. Big part of American culture has become living large and having things.

Yea and for every skunk like the Kushner's or probably a gazillion other Wall Street firms or corporations like Cheesecake, theres a hardworking citizen cutting expenses to the bone and scraping pennies together so they can make their rent/mortgage, simply because its the right thing to do.

This just shows the importance of those institutions and what a mess it would be if they were shut down. Personally, all my tenants paid April. One lost her job but still got rent in on time. Ive already reached out to her about creative solutions to the extent things dont improve. But all in all, bullets dodged this month. I have seen massive amounts of folks laid off and furloughed. Some sadly, ones that just left previous jobs of long standing for exceptionally better jobs.

Ive actually said to myself a number of times over the past few weeks while walking the aisles, why the fuck is ANYTHING on sale right now? I'd either be at full price, or a modest(but not egregious) bump simply to level out folks buying more than they need. No one is buying 100 rolls of toilet paper if its $4.99 a roll. Or .79 for one and then 4.99 quantities 2-5 and 9.99 6-10, etc.

I think theres a couple things to consider. This recession, is not like GFC. GFC was led entirely by the banking and financial system. Those institutions are the lifeblood of EVERYTHING. Those things freeze up, and everything else goes down. Here that is not the case. Banks are healthy and well capitalized and stimulus is being pumped out through lending programs that should, in time, lead the way back. From 08 until what? maybe 2015... this aspect, lending, was removed from the market. I remember in 2012 I was a couple years removed from college and couldn't get a $400k mortgage with $160k annual income and an 800 credit score(with all those first time home buyer programs as well). Businesses in certain areas will go belly up. But there will be capital(cheap capital) incentivizing those willing, to get back out there. New businesses will emerge. Perhaps the only differences is that people will be a little smarter. My major concern with this setup is not the obvious corona industries. Its those PLUS all the energy jobs that will be disappearing. Those two areas are a major component, especially in some of the go-go states. Thats why an infrastructure plan could be massive for the US.

http://www.openculture.com/2018/01/how-isaac-newton-lost-3-million-dollars-in-the-south-sea-bubble-of-1720-even-geniuses-cant-prevail-against-the-machinations-of-the-markets.html So yea, dont feel bad about your airlines fellas.

Optically it’s pretty poor taste. But reality is most of the equipment in terms of supplies is probably coming from China anyway. Some shit, huh? The reason Trump became a great politician is the reason he s the wrong leader for unique times like now. It’s always about winning with him. He will play to win at all costs. Right now, nobody cares about winning, they’re just trying to survive. Hence he comes off like an animal.

The problem with airlines and oil companies is that filing bankruptcy and starting over is like asking for a piece of chewing gum or bumming a smoke. Routine, no shame, just normal course business. Competition doesn’t really go away.

Haha yea thats nuts, but I'm rooting for ya. As long as its not something I own!

On the flip side, didn't Buffett sell out of a rail company before buying BNSF?

You are still allowed to go out for Happy Hour in NYC? I am gobsmacked. Its Trump's fault. Or Dalal is lying(something he s been called out on here for).

I and "my" POTUS screwed you! LOL Do you hear yourself? Real liberal syndrome there. Im one of the few here who's time and again been capable of both praising POTUS and criticizing him. There arent many who have even half ass objectively done both. But for arguments sake...who IS responsible for NYC??? The POTUS? The Mayor? The Governor? What is POTUS exactly expected to do with a filthy blue city whose political composition is lefties who hate him, refuse to work with him, and rather play games? Commit to something here bud! Assign %'s to the NYC blame? Surely De Blasio gets more than Trump?

Wrong wrong wrong all day but "I have so much confidence" Gregmal. So you won't commit to a number to judge by then? Yea sure, change the subject and then ask me to go back and look through 300+ pages for your quotes which you've already been called out for changing and lying about... Nice!

Commit to something Dalal? Come on. I know its hard for you folks. Deflect, deflect, deflect...

So since deaths are a good barometer, commit to a number to then judge? Clearly its millions no? You've said as much before.... or are you backtracking?

Ive had this happen unfortunately. Its a pain in the ass process and a total joke. But in order to file the report and have the credit agencies and banks protect you, you need to go to your local precinct a file a report. Nothing will happen. You'll give a statement. Provide the statement to the agencies who give you a "fraud victim" badge, which then puts alerts on your credit reports and ANY time in the future you apply for anything(or anyone else does) they are mandated to call you personally and verify. You're reports will also be eligible for 7 years of free freezes and unfreezing. For me, some (insert a non PC word) used an old apartment mailing to open up a Verizon account and get an iPhone and iPad. I got collection calls for 6 months thinking it was a scam. Somehow I realized it wasn't and had to do the above. Good luck with all of it. Probably takes 30 hours of your time to sort out.

LOL Dalal. Literally everything you blanket upon others you are 100% guilty of yourself just on the other end. Trump could shoot a man on 5th and not lose a voter. He could also cure cancer and you'd still bitch and moan about something. You never commit to ANYTHING. You've spouted off about millions of deaths! If the number is less than millions will you give credit? Of course you won't, you'll just change the tune and whine about something else. Even your comment about deaths being a measure of leadership is absurd. Hasn't it been apparent this is a locally run issue? How is Trump responsible for some shithole city like NY where even during normal times you have garbage bag lined streets and rat feces, syringes and homeless people everywhere? Not to mention, showcasing your "facts" it has been widely detailed that a national shutdown is very possibly unconstitutional! So please, commit to some future marker like Gibbons did. And then stand behind it like a man. Dont then run to change the goal posts and carry on acting the exact same way you accuse others of acting.

They are in energy ETFs which people are selling hand over fist? Throwing the baby out with the bathwater? Pure speculation because I honestly don't know. Yea Im not too proud to admit, me neither. No clue. I ve just found it prudent to ignore the urge to be full blown value investor and revert to "price is what you pay, value is what you get" in the face of price action that continually, and for long extended periods of time, has flown smack in the face of what conventional wisdom tells you. Look at some energy stocks a half decade ago, auto stocks basically the entire decade, even some of the financials....when you're supposedly gushing cash but the market rewards you nil, or negatively, something is off. If there arent effective levers or shareholder actions to take to correct this, tread carefully. The saying, much like with the autos, was that theyre in the penalty box for good reason, but in much healthier shape and will hold up better through the next cycle.... yea... about that.... So with tankers, uhhh, tread carefully I guess.

I want to and have flirted with the tanker trade for a while, but too many moving parts for me and frankly, too many things that dont make sense. Most obviously, the primary one being, why TF are the stocks getting annihilated with $200k day rates?

So this is fine and all, but it’s also something we already knew. I did find it ironic how in the beginning everyone consensus was China is lying. Then it became politically convenient to say “China did better than US”. Whether true or not, it’s kind of petty and stupid to even be creating March Madness type brackets of “who did it best” during a global crisis... but nonetheless some folks can’t be stopped. It’s the same thing with some of these journalists. Do you really expect to get anywhere productive with a Chinese official? Reasonably speaking, no. But hey, best thing you can do for the world(cough your career) is try asking gotcha questions hoping to garner YouTube clicks and maybe go viral on Twitter. There’s something detestable about folks trying to profit off a crisis.

I would agree with you guys on principle but possibly diverge if you look further into it. Funding secured is a correct comp. Donny heard some jubilant things and spouted off when it was likely an overreaction. At the same time, should we believe that certain types of nations rigged things in favor of Trump, wouldn't it also make sense that they may take some actions to help him stay in power? Especially right now where it appears he may lose re-election?

Yea but no different than any other day of the week. This is a shitstorm of conflicting everything that we live in and COVID is just another chapter, I suppose. Maybe the best move was to quarantine the 55+ population and let the rest of the wold function as normally. WHO knows? Truly the darkest timeline :D But we'll have to see I suppose. Not sure what power they are gaining from this - in fact we may see countries reduce their reliance on China as a result. But now we're all just talking out of our ass. Question going forward is what is the best way to (1) get a handle on the virus and then (2) reopen society. Crazy, crazy shit? China waits til peak infection(remember, this was engineered in a lab in Wuhan as a biological weapon and the problems in China were just a cover) and then launches military attacks on their weakened opponents... In regards to your real question, I think Mr. Blankfein actually had some decent ideas. Keep it locked down for a little while longer and then start releasing the lower risk part of the population back into the world.

I'm going to troll here now because why not. Still got coffee in the mug. So, you're saying that the USA is just one of the bunch? No exceptionalism, just a mediocre country like all those countries? That the days of glory are over? That we shouldn't expect much of it and just surrender to South Korea? Is that what you're saying? I think the credit we assign to the success and failures of our leaders is astonishingly off base. USA has the best businesses and talent(in aggregate) in the world. Combine that with, on the whole, the best living conditions and human rights policies anywhere. But our politicians are entirely inefficient and basically just fake suits who game the system to enrich themselves. As we are seeing here, even in dire straits, these fuckers are still playing politics and trying to stuff self serving crap into aid bills and playing chess. Its sickening. Trump IMO is an ignorant, but well intentioned narcissist who wants nothing else but to go down as the greatest president in US history. He's massively flawed but ultimately if we had a solution or a cure available Id wager every penny to my name he gets it because being the hero would be the ultimate achievement for him. But on a more realistic and granular level, I dont see him as really having any impact outside of maybe the cheerleader or the overbearing coach yelling at the point guard to "shoot" even though he might not fully comprehend the situation.