Gregmal

I saw a headline out of england hinting exactly that... Also I agree w/ Greg on the valuation difference between "blue chips" and the market darlings. It's huge. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9054817/Whats-TRUTH-Englands-new-strain-coronavirus.html I think the high likelihood here is that its just these cocksuckers doing what they do best...

Theres still some stuff thats reasonable of course. The steady as she goes stuff will always be fine. But the difference between that stuff and the majority of lets say the Nasdaq 100 or S&P 500 is wider than Ive ever seen. You've had people whining about "valuations" for the better part of the a decade now. And most of it has just been nonsense, incompetence, or jealousy fueled. We haven't until recently had any real, widespread euphoria or markers consistent with previous bubbles. Now there are plenty, including Tesla being worth more than BRK...again, among many other red flags. Not to mentioned sentiment. No ones bearish or scared of the market anymore. If there was ever a blow off top type setup, this little post election run would be a pretty good candidate. I'm still in all my core longer term stuff. Those are largely in the right places. RE, financials, etc....stuff thats not by any stretch expensive. But most people arent buying that kind of stuff anyway. Anyway, who knows. The beauty of the market is it can be unappealing today and then something falls out of the sky tomorrow.

Greg, With, or without, your decises at hand? [which to me seem to be the definition of a vacation, or perhaps not]? 2020 was unlike any year Ive experienced before. Like being in the Matrix movies, where you have so many different things coming at you all at once, in super high velocity. The mental exercise of process it all, individually, collectively, etc...literally nonstop from January-December and on the fly determining what was garbage, what was noise, what was relevant, etc. Between primaries, covid, politics crap, policy decisions, more covid, elections, post election....the byproduct was, IMO, more investment opportunities and especially trade setups than one could have ever dreamed of. But this amalgamation of opportunity does come at a cost. Ive been plugged in like never before and now heading into year end, see the opportunities waning. My family is at a unique point where wife and I can 100% work remotely(if need be), and the kids are sub 5 so the opportunity to do something cool without interfering with school is there. I am beyond pleased with how I'm exiting the year from an investment/trading perspective. With the current market landscape I am in no hurry to do anything. So its time to take advantage of other opportunities for a bit.

I hope so. Ive pared down more than I can remember in a very long while and even been putting on a bunch of shorts. Not so much lockdown related but valuations in some places are obscene and this is coupled with massive exuberance and even from many sophisticated investors, a lot of complacency. I think theres also the fact that many people simply won't listen to holiday lockdown orders. But business wise, the mid December to mid January period is always(at least in US) pretty subdued. So vs March which is just kind of normal period, holidays are different. I also think the market has largely caught on and realized that what happens in the next couple months just straight up doesnt matter very much bigger picture; granted there are some exceptions. WTI is clearly much more short term demand sensitive. That said, wouldn't mind a VIX spike to 50 and widespread 10-20% correction. But in terms of positioning, most reasonable investors and especially managers of other peoples money I think have locked in their nut for the year. Myself, I'll be putting the finishing touches on in the next two weeks but am largely in the position I desired to be going into year end. I'm taking a 10 week vacation in South Florida for the first couple of months in 2021. So whatever comes, I'm good.

Sold ANGI swing position.

^It was, but IMO there was also a lot of other stuff floating around where you could make some easy money. In hind site, you definitely cant argue with buying the package(especially if you sold AIV at $12! on the spin), but right now there's substantially less value/opportunity I see, substantially more evidence of the bubble expanding(such as all those IPOs last 2 weeks), and IMO a couple weeks left until the clock strikes midnight and everyone does their predictable "its a new year, lets get serious again" routine. Ive got a lot planned for that oh so special week between Xmas and New Years where Robinhood hunting season is in full swing! Agree on AIV, but Ive never let overhangs or "no catalysts" stop me. Bring on the $3s!

Elon Musk is probably the only person in the world who could start a gold mining company and find a way to make money selling gold that cost $800 an oz to get out of the ground, for $300 an oz. This may in fact be the fallback for Boring...should flamethrowers cease being profitable. Unless he's planning to use SpaceX to mine asteroids...which would be a game changer!

Added a few more MX and BAM EDIT: also got allocated some IIIIU

Now you cant use the bathroom in NYC.... Sincerely, Governor Cuomo

The Bitcoin store of value theory is just a theory at this point. Relatively speaking, very few people own it and almost no institutions do yet. There is a huge risk that the theory is wrong. Also BTC is very concentrated in a relatively few accounts (so called "whales"). If the BTC store of value theory plays out the way I think it will, it will be a bumpy ride. Institutions trying to get in driving the price up, the occasional whale cashing out driving the price down. Quite times like most of 2020 where it drifts. Eventually this will all settle down and be more stable, but not anytime soon. It is the largest asymmetric opportunity that I know of. Maybe a once in a century type thing. Exactly. And its clear as day and has been for a while. Which is why its baffling to me how absurd some people behave with respect to what is obviously a speculation but also quite clearly defined...as you touch on above. You really cant risk 1% of your NW for something like that? You have to wonder wtf people are thinking. You play conservative with big bets/investments...sure. Absolutely makes sense. But 1-2% or so?!?! Yea, go nurture that 1% and compound it safely at 5% a year(probably too aggressive a figure TBH). Enjoy having 2% in 15 years lol....

Bought some more AIV. Flipped the ABNB tracker. Felt greedy looking for more than $20 per share in a couple days on something so obviously not worth what its trading for at the moment.

All I know is that while you guys were arguing, one of you made ~7%...

^^^Yea, talk to me when BTC has half the market cap of gold. Then again, when they match. We'll see what the prices are then and how its been as an investment.

Town school system sent out an automated message just now. Tomorrow is a snow day. Virtual classes are cancelled. Yup, teachers hard at work...

Yea there are many contrarian indicators throughout the history of this(and other) threads here.

Yes, greening is still negatively impacting citrus production in Florida. Production is down more than 50% over the last ten years. The various interventions studied and applied have not been effective at reducing the spread. Infected trees have also been found outside of Florida, in Southern California and South Texas. There is a semi-last ditch collaboration with Bayer AG to identify a solution. In the meantime, a substantial amount of groves in Florida get transitioned to cattle grazing land. Yea this is probably a more informative answer than the one I gave lol. What you're looking at for Alico is a couple things that largely balance out. So the low point of ~25M pounds set a few years back was a one off. You had 43M this year vs 46M the year prior. 42M in 2017 and this up from 25m or so in the earlier part of the decade. That said, this is somewhat of an "apples to oranges!" comp. They consistently plant new trees and have been acquiring stabilized groves as well recently with land sale proceeds. However an overall decline in production is typically offset by price increases. Additionally, they generate over 80% of their revenue from a contract with Tropicana which they've literally had forever. So greening is an issue. It isnt really effecting Alico to any major degree due to the above, especially the way it was feared to in 2016 IIRC, rather it is something that effects the small grove operator/mom and pop type farmer. Typical big corporation will win type of things. With the benefit of decreased production equalling higher prices.

This is the stuff legends are made of! https://seekingalpha.com/news/3645062-bitcoin-worth-400k-says-guggenheims-scott-minerd-crypto-roundup Minerd says his team's fundamental work suggests Bitcoin should be worth $400K. I would imagine they are using a VERY liberal interpretation of the term "fundamental"....

LOL and this is why I really just dont GAF here and just let it be. God bless all you guys who do the work. But for the life of my investment in these, its basically been this....rumor this way, rumor that way, huge run, huge retrace, vice versa. Chicken with the head cut off. I'll care when its either worthless, or within a few ticks of par. Otherwise, not worth the brain damage.

Broke $20k. Go get em, Robinhood. Unleash the Kraken.

A lot of the greening stuff is resolved. Dont worry, my hippie sister who aced her SATs, turned down Princeton to go to UF, and then decided to work for FWC for $35k a year has great contacts in this space!(said 50% serious and 50% sarcastically). Alico has been recycling the conservation/protected land proceeds into additional groves. There is not really a catalyst here. But I think they've demonstrated over the past few years that theyre shareholder friendly enough. Solid inflation projection on multiple fronts here. Some free optionality on the mineral rights. I think its a pretty good 10-15% a year total return for a good long while candidate.

https://www.alicoinc.com/news/detail/1352/state-of-florida-approves-option-agreement-with-alico-to Always great doing biz with the government in a business friendly state. Another $14m straight to the bank. Not this first transaction of this nature and I'm expecting more of this in the future. Stock is wildly undervalued. party like it's 2005, what's next some TRC? And yes I'm aware that ALCO has changed drastically since its land bank value trap days, Trafelet drama and all that stuff. Long and strong the Sun Belt, baby! The mid 2000s housing bubble was more or less the 1990s tech bubble. Guess what came after that in tech? I think its our time here. Runway is long. I'll get scared the day I hear a coastal liberal governor start talking about lowering taxes or implementing some sort of weather changing apparatus that provides 70 and sunny 10 months a year for residents....

https://www.alicoinc.com/news/detail/1352/state-of-florida-approves-option-agreement-with-alico-to Always great doing biz with the government in a business friendly state. Another $14m straight to the bank. Not this first transaction of this nature and I'm expecting more of this in the future. Stock is wildly undervalued.

Got some AIV at the pre market open mid 4s. Early bird gets the worm? Or flattened at the open?

^^^I think theyre looking for Jill Biden....

Added a small bit to DKS. Picked up AIV under $5 for a trade. Will probably sell it within 24 hours. EDIT: also shorted a small bit of CVNA