Gregmal

I think its different when you are one of the people making the rules. I had a similar experience on a volunteer HOA board once. There was, like with many HOAs, stupid procedural rules required if one wanted to have satellite tv. The install needed to be approved by the board, through the management company. On a regular basis certain trustees, all of whom had satellites, would vote against others having it because "it was dangerous if it fell", "it doesnt look good", etc. I get to have what I want, but I get to tell you what you can have, is absolutely despicable behavior.

It doesnt matter if they were "following the rules" at the time. Personally, I think this is unconstitutional to make these sorts of "rules". But regardless, its the entire premise. In the instance of Ms. Piggy... If its unsafe, why are you dining? And if it isn't, why are you banning folks from doing it and shutting down businesses?

Kuppy said it better than I! LMFAO

Sold 1/3 of BEAM, for the third time, in less than 3 months, and still have more than 2/3 of my original position! Math!

Bought back all the GEOS I flipped. Selling here is purely related to boot from the index. Volume is great for once too.

And that should fall on the establishments who had months to plan. For a private institution, same as a hotel, sorry we're full. For public resources, well, perhaps the geniuses in government should have planned or made incentives better rather than going out to eat and party and get their hair done...China did it in 8 days....This isn't my problem or the average citizens problem. At least it shouldn't be.

https://nypost.com/2020/12/01/la-politician-dines-outdoors-hours-after-vote-to-ban-the-practice/ Another hypocrite. And a real beauty too!

The blind squirrel found a nut! BB partnership with AMZN, shares back up to....where they were a few years ago. Recouping losses is better than adding to them though.

CFIIU to merge with View, shares up 15%. Spac-mania continues.

Yup, between the activists, buyback, and balance sheet strength I think its likely good money again. Bought a few shares back today and was surprised to see some big insider buys filed just a few moments ago.

all time high today

IDK, but off of what was said earlier, which future generations become the gold bugs necessary to keep the greater fool facet alive? Best guess, the ones who's greater fool investment is crypto...thats who.

Why? You think it's overpriced or? There's certainly enthusiasm w/ the spac stuff right now. And yea, PSTH is one of the bigger profile ones, but you're stretching reality to think a company, described by Bill himself as "mature", is instantly going to be worth much more than the already 30%+ premium being ascribed at $26.xx. Its been my opinion for a bit, having traded the shares a few time, and especially the warrants, that the margin of safety is gone and that its probable you have already gotten credit for the deal pop here. I've been selling short and mid duration puts here though, as there's still a lot of meat on them.

Eric is kind of getting at my point. Diamonds was an off the cuff remark, but what about platinum, palladium or others? Frankly Ive always thought gold was a greater fool kind of thing, nothing wrong with that..but it is what it is. I just think its a remnant of uncivilized societies and as we get more advanced, its relevance as a store of value decreases.The premise is largely archaic and involves someone else thinking the same way you do. It also seems to me that the gold bug type is older, which future generations will carry the sentiment? There are plenty of assets or items that overtime store value. Why is this unique relative to the alternatives?

What I've never understood, is why gold? There's so many other things that accomplish the same thing. For instance, why not diamonds?

Your figures are an exaggeration above, but yes, I handicapped on ESRT, got in below $5.50 and got out at $10. When trying to handicap residential prices next to Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook and Google in Seattle area, I'm saying there will be some negative impact to prices in real life as a result of Bill Gates prediction of more than 30% of days not being spent in office anymore, and there will be some positive impact to residential prices in exurbs in Seattle area. That's all, no extreme statements. Thats hardly a controversial statement then and Id even agree with you. There will be some softness and suburbs/rural will benefit. Thats already occurring. But I also wouldn't underestimate the desire of people otherwise priced out of an area to be waiting for the opportunity. I dont think its Gates prediction but rather supply and demand at work. However longer term, the question, and investment opportunity I think is pretty clear. What happened following the GFC where masses of folks were evicted/foreclosed? When the forecasted "new normal" was that everyone and their mother would be renters from now on. An unprecedented wave of private investor/institutional money came in and snapped up homes in desirable but out of favor areas. And its been nothing short of a home run for them. I wouldn't confuse the current covid hysteria where people are literally forced to WFH and daily occupancy rates are like 20% as a new normal. Two years from now most people who were working in an office will still work from at an office. Not just younger people; you dont think the average middle aged married person with kids doesnt cherish the break from that? Or the single, middle aged person not quite young enough for dating apps to be appealing? Where do they get social interaction? The distortion often emerges when there are irregularities and imbalances. Not a whole lot different than when we had an excess supply of stocks in March. The pendulum is always swinging. Sometimes it is fairly straight forward/easy to step back and simply determine whether we are in or out of favor, and then look at what needs to occur to get to the other side. In relation to the thread topic, for NY, its opening back up businesses, getting crime down, and probably looking in the mirror as far as tax policy goes. Pulling shit like they did with Amazon certainly didnt help, but I dont think thats something they can get away with doing repeatedly, and sooner or later they'll see that.

I kind of assumed that, along with your quite bearish tone because that is what you had conveyed in some other threads. I think in the ESRT thread you were talking about $100-$200 sq/ft. The thread is about NY, and if those couple things return, ie nightlife, entertainment, etc...so will the people. They do have an interest to get crime down, although there's tended to be cyclical trends with that, and it is not uncommon for there to be high crime during periods of economic disarray. Those issues shakeout, and you'll be seeing record prices again. Similar areas will likely see similar progression. If this isn't what we are talking about, then I dont now what we're doing in a thread about folks fleeing NYC. So if we are talking about this as an investor, there's really not a whole lot of "risk" posed to NYC or major city hubs, by WFH. The risk is that the drivers that make the city attractive go away...this is a low probability risk IMO. If we are just talking in general about a hiccup in terms of demand...so what? Thats what cycles are. If it isn't any of the above, then I am not quite sure what you are saying.... If anything, I think WFH is a ticking time bomb for suburban office space. Although anecdotally, I've been able to WFH since 2014. I've leased 5 different offices during this time and still pretty much did a hybrid 3/2 type of thing. I was still paying the full rent. Most offices in non prime locations regularly operate at below 100% occupancy and have had no problem gradually raising prices either. Either way, cities will be fine. The question is when, not if.

WFH is highly overblown. Sure, it will continue and progress. But you miss the fact that it may be in the interests of many of these folks to tout worker friendly "choices" surrounding WFH. That doesnt mean people will want it. People have loved city centers for as long as there have been civilizations. Young people want bars, clubs, restaurants, and lots of sex. This only happens in the cities. Or put another way, it doesnt happen rurally, and unless you're looking to boink soccer moms, doesnt happen in the burbs. The cities from a real estate perspective are trophy assets. Its supply and demand. With the degree to which capital is gushing into every corner of the universe, even a reasonable demand decline is more than offset by lower rates and greater number of dollars chasing fewer and fewer available assets. If you want to make an excuse for why guys like Bezos, Zuck, Flatt, etc are buying, fine. I'd prefer to just take it for what it is. It isn't one guy being an outlier...its multiple people and firms who are known for being savvy and opportunistic, doing so. If nothing else its proof of the above. Rich get richer, have more money to deploy....so they deploy it. Brookfield has a whole lot more capital to pour into these assets, and so do a lot of other HNW individuals, institutions, etc. Its the same reason you're seeing shopping centers and retail properties in prized locations selling at record prices, despite a much more dire narrative surrounding them. If anything thinks 5 years from now you see NY RE trading hands at $300 sq/ft....youre simply out to lunch.

I dont know how much one can take from the current situation other than simply acknowledging that some of these things already existed and will just progress with time. Covid is only a short term headwind. But the larger trends of high taxes in some of the places, anti business policy, and now violence...are bad, but will too pass. The current opportunity depends on your time horizon, and big baller status. Guys who answer to no one and who have shown to be opportunistic, like Flatt, Bezos, Zuck, etc.... theyre active and buying. They see that things will go back to normal, eventually. But other than that, who is going to pull the trigger today? If you're a Sr VP and heading up the division responsible for managing RE and signing leases, no way in hell you're going to be the guy who signs a lease in the middle of a pandemic; raging civil unrest, unprecedented violence, and widespread lockdowns... how do you explain that to your boss, who then has to explain that to the CEO, who then has to answer to the Board, who then has to answer to short term centric shareholders? Everything really makes sense within context. Its not surprising, its an easy opportunity, but I dont think it will be get rich quick.

Except that is nearly impossible because you do have real essential workers...and its also unconstitutional. So yes, its an appealing option to an academic, which most science folks are...but to someone with a rational understanding of how the world works and how the US is setup, it should have been an obvious non starter. The problem with the politicians, is they dont care, and even if, like Cuomo, their policies are killing people, or like Newsome and Pelosi, they are total hypocrites, "we're saving lives" is a great campaign slogan.

If the "pandemic" has taught us anything it is that the bureaucrats dont know what they are doing, ever, and the scientists need to stay in the labs and stick to research; nothing more. Letting these people make decisions and policy has been a disaster. Almost every position they've taken, they've at some point also taken the exact opposite position. Wear masks, dont wear masks. Stay home! Actually most covid transmissions occur at home! Remdesivir works. Oh actually it doesnt. Hospitals putting people on ventilators....oops, ventilators make it worse! The scientists and medical professionals have certainly come out of this thing looking quite poor. And then they wonder why people dont "listen to the science"... My wife had to got to the hospital for a standard procedure a couple weeks ago....they make this whole big to-do about temperature checks and processing everything and make us wait several hours to do basic check in stuff and get her one of the rapid tests. I ended up just asking, "you've spent 2+ hours dicking around and making us wait...what if she tests positive for covid? Do you not take her or something". And I was floored by the response. "Oh no, then we just take extra precautions but proceed as normal"...What!?! LOL Why TF wouldn't you just take these precautions, with everyone who comes in, to begin with? My wife's family, almost all of the women are nurses. And the stories about the hospitals, big ones at that, running around clueless or winging it, making mistakes all over the place, etc....its insane. I've long maintained that the only way I'll ever know if I've had covid is if I end up in the ICU or dead. Because barring being in that type of condition, I'd imagine I'd just suck it up like I would with any other cold or flu...and get on with my life. No need to take chances or incorporate these people into the equation unless absolutely desperate and necessary.

No problem lol. PCYO and several other smaller semi liquid names Ive noticed have unusual selling activity. Ive put some sucker bids in. SWKH especially as that one can get fat fingered pretty easily and I'd love to make a quick 10-20% just playing market maker on a holiday shortened trading day.

Sold the last few of my PSTH warrants. Also trimmed some CRSP.

https://spacinsider.com The above is a great resource for anyone interested in these. Spacs are literally the playground where the sophisticated investor can rape, pillage and plunder the Robinhooder, while the Robinhooder to date, still seems to also do pretty well. No guarantees how this ends of course!

Little do most people know, but historically, the biggest holders of spacs are some of the most conservative institutions/hedge funds. Of course typically they were in it for the 3-5% over max 18-24 months that was common pre-mania. Upon decoupling they would offload the warrants to get their ~2-5% return and then wait out the common for either a deal pop or redemption where you'd get the $10 plus (time*prevailing interest rate).