Gregmal

My weak buy setup got nullified by the end of yesterday. Surprised to see the big gap down today. Trump has far more urgent things to worry about than releasing FnF, and if the Supreme Court can rule the Texas vs PA case like that, it can cover its eyes on FnF scandal as well. Lol, you show up after a long absence with a buy signal and support for a fascist coup. The next day after a big drop, you're look, "Just kidding - there was no buy signal. Still dig that fascist coup, though." Please go back and read my prior post. I said I showed up again because after May 2019, I finally got another buy setup, but it is really weak and I am not taking it. You seem to be a Biden supporter. Is that true? I am surprised to see any Democrats believing in law and order for FnF while covering their eyes for all the lawless things that Obama has done over the years. ;) I oppose the theft of the Net Worth Sweep AND I oppose the acts of a career criminal fascist. This is only hard to comprehend if you support the career criminal fascist. The question he asked is a simple yes or no....

https://twitter.com/HJudeBoudreaux/status/1338210121881694217/photo/1

Sorry to hear that. I guess I will rephrase the gist of my post and summarize by stating that often times folks dont really know the nuances and it is very much important to. A regular brokerage account is very different from a managed account and even with those there are very different levels of responsibility. In this case, I dont know what happened. I can only infer from the stuff Ive seen guys go through and experienced myself over the years. There s a big difference between somebody screwing a client and aggressively churning an account to generate fees(Ive seen that), and a guy simply getting one wrong in a big way. I mean Bill Ackmans blown up SPVs. So have many others. I'm fairly certain their intentions were in the right place and their investors knew the risks. The other side of risk management is that most people dont give you their full assets. So you can say "diversify"...but I know and have seen guys lose clients out of pure boredom because theyre trying to do the right thing. I remember personally seeing a client transfer out his account to a different firm one time. Guy had maybe a half mil in a brokerage account. Had a diversified mix of Google, Home Depot, etc. Basically S&P components, some cash too....Well his net worth was $5M+ and he was clearing $700k a year and a month later the broker who managed him reach out to follow up. His new guy sold everything to buy $750k of Exco Resources and $300K of Sandridge...So now his diversified $500k portfolio was margined 2:1 in 2 highly levered names; the same type of stuff Dennis was buying and I'm fairly certain it turned out the same way cuz this was probably sometime in 2014. The broker who did the right thing lost the client. The guy who had the sexy sales pitch and cool story stocks probably made $20K+ in fees and at the time the client was excited about it.....I have a few guys that I work with who are extremely high net worth that basically have punch card relationships with me. A couple times a year when I find something really interesting I give them a ring and if they like it they'll fund an account with a big chunk of money with the entirety of it being for one investment and thats how they want it. To an outsider, they'd see the entire account in one position and think WTF. Every client is different. Its definitely not a simple biz. IMO folks are really just better off indexing if they dont want to follow things closely and if they do want to be active, engage places like this where you can get the help and feedback for free or at minimal cost.

If true, this is more than just a trade going bad, it would be unresponsible gambling with other people’s money. https://frankowskifirm.com/stockbroker-dennis-phillip-ayre-named-as-respondent-in-1-4-million-arbitration-claim/ https://frankowskifirm.com/dennis-ayre-continues-to-rack-up-customer-complaints/ On the law firms, the second a FINRA complaint is filed, many of the ambulance chaser firms have automated programs that shoot out boilerplate press releases advising "anyone who worked with XXXXX XXXXXXX to contact us regarding your options".... On the first part, depending upon how the account was setup, its very possible to do the above without doing anything wrong. If he is not operating as a 65 but simply a 7/63, he has no fiduciary duty. All he has to do is make sure what he's recommending is suitable. And suitability is simply determined by what boxes are checked on account opening forms. The good old trick back in the day was to only deal with HNW investors who check "speculation" for objective and "max aggressive" for risk tolerance. You could literally put their entire investment in one name and then double it over on margin. Effectively 200% long in one stock. And its entirely kosher. For a stock broker, the UT claim is also probably one of the most common. Guy all of a sudden say "I never agreed to buy that". Always well after the trade has gone down....But you still have to ask, why if you didnt want it, did you wait until 2019/20 to file a complaint for a transaction that took place 5+ years ago? During which you've gotten 50+ monthly statements? The biggest complaint I see here that will stick is using the non-firm email to essentially guarantee clients against losses. Both are big No-Nos. Guys probably getting a lifetime ban.

I actually find this kind of sad. Picasso I know was viewed as a very high quality poster who was involved in a lot of GFC value stuff that ended up working out quite nicely. FELP, even from his initial writeup, was a 5 bagger or something. That said, I also know that sometimes when a manager writes up a name, his basis may actually be much higher; he may even have some ulterior motives... I have no knowledge of the guy personally, and will refrain from making judgments about character. But I do think its a worthwhile cautionary tale for anyone in the business. CYA. I think you can make inferences regarding his style....aggressive. But also, dudes been in the biz since mid 2000s and never had a complaint. Now gets a bunch of complaints. Centered around one name blowing up. During a major O&G bear market.....If I had to guess I know where I'd lean in terms of wagering on what really happened. The business has evolved in quite crazy ways. I actually know of a firm who went out of business because their client list got stolen. Ended up being bought by a scumbag law firm. The law firm then called all the clients and solicited them for complaints/arbitrations/lawsuits for any investment they lost money in. Shit like this is a big part of the reason why I didnt want to spend too much of my life dealing with this crap.

https://nypost.com/2020/12/14/nj-gym-that-defied-covid-19-lockdown-fined-more-than-1-2m/ $1.2M for trying to work and run a business. You know who didnt get fined $1.2M? People who stayed home and did nothing. In fact, they wrote most of those people checks. Welcome to America.

Got an ABNB tracker too. Also added to ARKG short. Beautiful fade action there. Had a field day with ALCO. Upped a 20 bps position up to about 3% on the opportunity with the peculiar volume.

Is that Picasso? Not totally familiar with the investment and those involved other than occasionally looking at the thread. But the Brokercheck I dont think always tells the full story. Yea Im saying that as someone in the biz. But I can also tell you how many times an investment goes sour and the client gets amnesia or starts the Monday morning QB routine. Almost always happens when there are big blow ups. The "industry", being "self regulating" requires the broker/advisor to report ANY complaints, even, as they detail in the training programs, something as simple as "I dont like the way you talk"...At quick glance, all of the complaints seem to stem from the same investment. Dude was probably running a concentrated book. And LOL @ Sears getting a shoutout too.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3644173-crispr-therapeutics-secures-grant-for-gene-therapies-for-hiv

Added a few MX

Trimmed a little more ESRT and a bit of AYR

The courts are just icing on the cake in terms of a resounding conclusion. The real confidence killer was that we just had every ally we could have asked for with the current administration and after 4 years have absolutely zero to show for it other than wasted time and some pipe dream that it's going to get done in the next 40 days when reality is, they just had 4 years and dicked around with everything but the one thing we needed them to. I'm not selling, I feel I owe myself that much after not selling for the past 7/8 years outside of repositioning some common into preferreds, but I aint holding my breathe either. I haven't obsessed over the investment the way many have. Its always kind of been a "total write-off or huge homerun" investment in my book. I'm glad I didnt make it a huge position or spend time reading the tea leaves any time anyone even remotely associated with this did so much as fart...but you are right that the absolute corruption of the system really seems to work against this fundamentally. At the same time, selling here feels like leaving the movie with 15 minutes left.

Bout to get a special Covid Christmas edition of MeToo! https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/13/ex-cuomo-staffer-accuses-governor-of-sexually-harassing-her-for-years-he-denies-it.html Will we believe all women? I heard one of the allegations may have been that he tried performing cunnilingus without a mask on! The only thing that remains to be seen is whether the moral crusaders and voices of anti corruption who stand up to men who abuse their powers show up. The ones that made it their sworn duty to cry enough tears to drown Trump; will they show up for Cuomo?

oh god, maybe is time to sell.... The time to sell was in Nov 2016. This has been by far one of my worst investments/biggest wastes of time. I made the mistake of buying this in 2013/4 and adhering to the "real investors dont trade" narrative. That Mnuchin would take care of the hedge fund guys. I switched all common to preferreds a few years back. But the truth is that unless you're simply trading this like muscleman, its been a total dud. But whatever. Cant win em all.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/12/tony-hsieh-mental-health-help-covid-pandemic-isolation.html But dont worry. "They" believe in science! It is funny but for all the whining about Trump, when its all said and done, when folks ask themselves what's more deadly than a once in a 100 year virus...the answer will clearly be...Liberals. They take your freedom. Your friends. Your family. Your business. Your restaurants. Your schools. And worst of all, your peace of mind....

This is a straight forward, asymmetric wager/investment. Nothing more, nothing less. I own some of the preferreds.

Greg: Re ARKG....the July 2021 puts offer 10/1 if ARKG retraces to March re-Covid levels ($34). I own some July 21 $65's. Pretty good risk / reward for some gambling money. Thanks for the heads up. Yea I planned to take a look at the options and some of the similar loony tune ETFs over the weekend. At quick glance the options did seem quite reasonably priced. I also was surprised to see near 0 borrow cost on ARKG, which, while exciting, is currently holding an extraordinary number of stocks that have done 100%+ in a couple of weeks. This is also smack in the middle of what is seasonally a very strong stretch for biotech. Nov-Jan typically. So theres many ways this can shed 15-50% over the next quarter or two, on scenarios ranging from just a simple correction, to a full blown bubble pop...or at least I think/hope.

MSM has pulled the wool over the eyes of the naive liberal...but this highlights who and what the issue is....one man? Nope. hundreds and thousands of bureaucrats and academics. lazy, moving to the beat of their drum. feet dragging. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/11/white-house-threatens-to-fire-fda-chief-unless-covid-vaccine-oked-friday-report.html Thankfully theres a few more weeks of DJT. Joe would have been angry to get woken from his nap and then told one of his aids to tell another aid to schedule something for next week.

Bought a starter in AMT, rolled a few VIX calls, and shorted some ARKG.

I don't know why we'd be comparing Walmart, a company/business to an asset class. I dont hear anyone talking about how Berkshire Hathaway is nice and shiny and can be tucked into their pocket and turned into jewelry, but I do for gold...LOL WTF

Funny seeing the GEOS filings today. At $8.28 you have the entrenched asshat who's overseen all the value destruction selling some shares, and at $8.4 you've got the newly brought in director buying shares....LOL

As soon as spring arrives and along with it, the 20-something year old chicks in short skirts w/ their tits out....people will remember what made NYC great!

I try to be as transparent as possible but sometimes for liquidity purposes need to be a little bit discreet, especially with stuff with big spreads and limited liquidity like these. But generally speaking, I'm in the March-June timeframe and in various strikes from $125 down to $80, a few kamikazes below that but mainly 80-125. Ive also put on some minor exposure via a straight short of the common. Every day I wake up I become more and more convinced we are currently in the later stages of a bubble in several prominent market places, and it seems most people are in an Enya video. Perhaps I'm losing it though.

Starter in ALCO and MAA, shorted some ZM. Added to BYND puts.

Another round of BEAM and some more EDIT. Running out of shares to sell!