Gregmal

Its more telling though the look through composition of these people. Soooo self consumed....thinking theyre important enough to personally write the CEO of Capital One...demanding their interest and late fees be cut. Planning on working 10 hours but then deciding that it "just wasnt for them"...but then shameless taking from organizations designs to help those in bad spots. The extra $800 a month made a HUGE difference for them, but they have no interest in real jobs... Its crazy too because it could all work for them, on their budgets, to an even greater degree....If they just went out and got semi skilled part time jobs making $25-40k a year with benefits. In todays labor market, you dont even have to try to get a job that can provide that. And yet, by choice, they do.... this? Live like vagrants?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-couple-retired-2-years-ago-on-about-27-000-a-year-heres-how-its-going-11633706641?siteid=yhoof2 Came across this and looked into it and its actually a reasonably well followed retirement story that is not some typical "how to retire" clickbait story....are people this pathetic or is this just some kind of joke? $27k a year to live on? Dont want to work more than 10 hours a week but then decided they didnt even want to do that? Steve made $350 in a YEAR selling garbage as art? Joan is getting a $45 royalty? An extra $630 writing? They got their pandemic checks even though they weren't effected by anything...they avoid Cleveland Clinic because their medical bills went up $300 in a calendar year even though the husband requires more medical attention? Over the years they've been able to "chip away" at their $4,000! debt...including "writing a letter to the CEO of Capital One"! LOL. And yet, despite basically refusing to work they're at times going to the Salvation Army for help? WTF is wrong with people? And oh yea, what good is retirement if you cant "splurge" on a $5 a month museum membership?

The action in tech keeps pointing to a new stage of the cycle. I dont know how it was not at least reasonably obvious after last year where we went from arguably too expensive to undoubtedly expensive to mind boggling. Of course a lot of it, and subsequently the indexes hide behind the FANG stuff which is still not egregious but just fully valued, but everything under it is beyond comprehension in terms of valuations. The behavior has been validated by the capitulation type behavior of value investors seen everywhere from Twitter to VIC to Sohn. Parallels to Druck in 1999/2000. You can spit your carbonated beverage out seeing people drum up delusion inspired bull cases for garbage. And now even the leaders are fading/acting sloppy. Short interest across the board is basically nil...another tell tale sign. And you've got a lot of snowballs building. Ive got a few shorts and some puts+VIX calls along with some ETF type stuff but overall am not participating in much outside of riding the housing wave and the energy crisis, so I honestly dont care what happens. Cash is a waste of time, period. People have been saying "real estate is bad when we get inflation" and my biggest positions for the past year or so.. APTS(+107%), AIV(+82%), PCYO(+60%), FRPH(+27%), CLPR(+30%)...all so "Hi...yes, no, you're wrong, it isnt!".....on the flip side all those do well if rates remain at 1-2%.......we can let the value guys who missed a decade of easy tech money now fight over who thinks Peloton is cheapest not realizing theyre the last ones left at the party and the keg is empty...but otherwise the market is clearly bifurcated so rather than lazily fall back on "big crash bad!"...have some fun with it and play the game where you win either way. If you're buying tech here and its not FANG I'd underwrite 50% drawdowns into an accumulation strategy(thats basically what Ive done on the ~6% of so tech exposure I have)...otherwise, why even waste time with it? Even the FANGs probably have a few years at least ahead of themselves of boring returns.

Dunno, was going to the driving range yesterday and heard something on one of the radio stations about landlords owning 10 or more units being required to provide internet. It was a shocking new level of "we'll tell you what to do"...even for NY standards. You tell me, this goes to a vote....what happens? Its a classic case of pitting the haves against the have nots.

This is kind of the major issue I have with investing in the blue states. Housing is being viewed as a quasi state run utility almost; even the privately owned stuff. This kind of stuff will only get worse because there is no way around the major affordability issue. Look at large swaths of Europe and even Germany...the effects are disastrous once government starts telling people what they must do with THEIR dirt, bricks, and lumber. The upside we see, in stuff like CLPR, CLI, etc.... it comes with a catch...the higher prices go in these places, the tighter the supply, the CRAZIER these stupid liberals will get. I've got a solid allocation to the above two names but ultimately this is why I favor the Sun Belt stuff. Not only do you have favorable migration trends but you also know that these are the same places that refused to even implement masks in school in the name of "freedom"...they will watch with pride as housing prices go bananas and their dirt becomes viewed as gold. Whereas in other states they view that as a "problem"...

Anyone hear rumor of this new NYC law requiring landlords to provide free internet? Hopefully just a rumor but doesn’t surprise me at all.

Theyre somewhat illiquid so I dont wanna give an exact date and strike, yet, cuz the trade is still in progress. But go out a few years and up 20-50%. So figure $100-125 strike on the CL. Pick your date accordingly but it doesnt really matter if you give yourself some time. You dont need a bee line. As we saw with the last correction, it just washes out the wimps and then resumes whats inevitable. We dont have the infrastructure for all these alt energy dreams and theyre killing what we do have. Its a basic supply and demand trade and globally theres places even worse than we are here. Wait til places like India start their "covid recovery"....demand....up. Joe will be gasping for a ventilator due to the sheer horror of what he's created. And we'll just laugh and count our dollars and smile while filling our cars with $6 gas.

Added a little bit to the crude oil futures call options and XLE calls. Credit to Kuppy again on the futures calls.....clearly the best way to play a big spike without the company specific risk. Another shoutout to the genius president and his fans for making it all happen. No better way to redistribute the wealth the high energy prices. $100 oil here we come!

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/heres-the-best-new-asset-class-in-real-estate-tricon-residential-ceo-145713574.html Once again, why are people wasting their time investing in anything else?

Eh, IDK. I dont think the broader markets do a whole lot over the next couple years. Maybe 10% a year or so but nothing special. Saying FFH will outperform the index by 40% a year no with real corporate actions or changes is a little bit fo a stretch, no?

Well that’s kind of the problem. He s built it, and got nothing left to prove. And fwiw I had the “audacity” to criticize Buffett too, both about the refusal to buyback stock for several years and for being a pussy in April of 2020. For those keeping track at home… Gregmal 2 WEB 0 Im right about Prem here too. If they announced they were liquidating the entire equity portfolio, buying back stock up to 90% book value, and refocusing on India and insurance only the stock would probably do 50% over the next 2-3 quarters regardless of what the broader market does.

Briefly, no I m not short this, nor am I long this. I track these type of situations so that in the event it inflects I can make a lot of money in short order. Most recent example was BRG. Total shit management team but trades at 50c on the dollar. Only catalyst is a sale. Rumor leaked of strategic alternatives, stock took a day to process and you could buy at $11 and sell a couple days later at $13...easy. Same thing to an extent with Berkshire. I questioned the logic of Buffett and his allocation strategy for years and probably annoyed some of the loyalists but said all along when the buybacks got serious the stock would rerate. Saw the buyback in 2020 Q4/2021 Q1, made it a 40% position at 230, and a couple quarters later its flirting with $300. @Viking Its nothing to get sensitive about or call below the belt. I "bought last year and the thesis is working" isnt really the same as I bought on the same thesis I have now almost 2 years ago at a higher price than it trades today. In the later case, its really again just falling victim to what folks have suffered through for 10 years now. Harping on cheapness and the quant crap and missing the key that unlocks it all. Nothing more, nothing less.

Anyway, time for the weekend. Good playing ping pong with the bull/bear stuff. Cheers.

Exactly, more of the same... meanwhile people are saying things have changed. The market and most people do not find FFH management trustworthy and find that there is great risk of big screwups, even ones we are told shouldn't be worried about, and thats the major reason this trades at 60c on the dollar. And THAT, barring a management overhaul, or a huge tender, hasn't changed and won't go away anytime soon.

Why can't it change depending upon the variables? Its good to have a set strategy communicated to people. However at various points in time the strategy can be right or wrong, no? It doesnt stay the same forever? So yea you can have it both ways. Buffet was more into acquisitions, until he wasnt. Again, the mental process and ability of the management team is whats called into question with FFH. What benefit is there currently, to addressing the debt vs buying back stock that trades at 70% of an understated book?

Yes outlining the allocation strategy is a clear plus because it holds them accountable. However if, as many are claiming, your stock is so raging cheap, then why isnt that list shifting? Why arent lower risk/reward opportunities being exited in favor of better risk/reward? I mean is reducing debt right now really a better use of capital? Either the business is cranking and making oodles of money and its(the debt) not an issue or.......

More on the buybacks, but first...if you're touting something as an investment, you can't then hop scotch around with "I traded it". If you're waiting for a rerate and premium to book, I dont think its unreasonable to assume a holding period until it reaches that. If its a good, well run company, it will withstand the market hiccups...yes, even covid. Pretty much EVERYTHING(good and bad companies) is currently trading higher than pre covid levels. And with FFH, again, we're hearing, "WE'RE RIGHT AND EVERYONE ELSE IS WRONG". So...on buybacks, why is it a satisfactory excuse that because they do insurance they cant buyback stock? Plenty of insurance companies run buybacks. Berkshire has done a ton, just as one example. IF FFH is so cheap and buybacks are undeniably the right move, is it not further evidence of mismanagement, not being able to execute them now for well over a year? Doesnt it speak volumes about capital allocation when a company literally has their hands tied and barely any spare capital to opportunistically take advantage of a 60c dollar? If you have a 60c dollar, doing 2-3% of outstanding a year is a red flag.

But then they need to actually repurchase stock. There's still excuses for that. Again, going back to the post above, below is Viking in 2019 talking about buybacks. Are they really just a constantly hanging carrot? You have things you can monetize, and frankly when you trade at 60c on the dollar everything should be fair game in terms of monetizing. And yet.... the story is always the same here.

To be specific, you keep mentioning how you bought into FFH mid last year. But thats not really an honest statement. You've been touting FFH for years and listed it as a top pick going into 2020. Yes, you panicked and sold all your stocks during covid, and then bought it back, but I mean come on. Acting like its a new position and the thesis has played out and the IRR has been great isnt really reality.

LOL so yea, now Prem finds pinching pennies convenient. In other words, its a crock of shit. How much money has been directly or indirectly IE Torstar thrown away to related parties? Multiples upon multiples of what it costs to be public on the NYSE. If FFH listed I'd almost guarantee a 5-10% valuation improvement, at least.

We're just talking about different things. You guys(most of you, some see it) continue to miss the obvious reasons for why this is a dumpster fire and ignore what needs to change(or pretend its already changed). I mentioned it above. Its too onerous for Prem to list on the NYSE....why LOL? Too much disclosure? How is that bad? Too costly? What did his embarrassing BB fake buyout bid cost in just legal fees? Not too mention all the other waste? But now we're worried about a few mil in costs...when $300M Griffin Industrial can list on the NYSE but mega insurer FFH cant? Please. So yea, maybe we talk past each other but I mean when we talk about how the holdings dont really matter because until you show you're serious about ringing the register you're only going to get 50/60 cents on the dollar, and then you throw out a spread sheet breakdown of how much the holdings are worth and tell me the markets wrong.... Or how we mention the performance and how this has been terrible and your response is that it doesnt matter because you trade it.... I mean we're addressing different point and at some point it would be helpful to have an "I'm right" or "I'm wrong" moment for everyone...however if the bar is trading 20% market fluctuations up or down or say the market rallies 30% and this does 35% and folks wanna say they were right....I mean, as I alluded to above...it doesnt matter cuz you guys have all the answers. I think myself and a few others have highlighted what most likely needs too happen in order for this to rapidly rerate(irrespective of the broader market) and we're nowhere near that. You guys are saying different and pointing to things the market already knows. Maybe we'll see, or maybe we won't.

I guess at the end fo the day people get the returns that they deserve. Facetiously, but also summarizing all the shit Ive heard about FFH recently... On NYSE or a real listing(after all, as Viking mentioned, they are a huge insurance company; start acting like it!).. they dont need one, its a waste of money On increased disclosure: Its fine, I hope they disclose less going forward On buybacks: They cant because theyre an insurance company, besides they have total return swaps On shitty performance and long term track record: Its fine, the more it goes down the more I like and the more I buy On the horrendous investments: Theyre fine now, just look at what they've done lately! On Prem's lack of interest in maximizing shareholder value: How dare you question his motives/integrity On selling losers: Hopefully he will but he's waiting for the right time. On trading at a discount to book/NAV: Its ok eventually the market will get it! Its impossible not to revert to a premium at some point On being a dog post covid: It did 30% TTM! On terrible track record: Its fine, I sold it before it went down, bought it back, sold it at a profit, bought it back again On shorting: He said he's done so we must take his word. If you ignore the shorting he's done OK On repeatedly picking lousy businesses: He's not a stock picker, he is a businessman! I mean you cant even make this shit up. At least if one wants a cult stock buy BAM or TSLA or something that rewards its shareholders. I mean seriously, just buy Berkshire for God sakes and stop wasting time on this junk.

Viking do you have an answer for this?

Exactly. I feel like there’s no more victim of the typical value investor bs than FFH shareholders and even FFH itself. As a general rule of thumb, Mr Market is generally right. He can be wrong at times. But typically there’s reasons. With FFH they continually sit there are arrogantly claim everyone else is wrong and they’re right. Wake up, do a couple easy things, and see what happens. Not that hard. The question is whether Mr Watsa is just that arrogant, doesn’t care, or simply won’t do it for other reasons. My money has been on the later two. So far it’s been correct

I just headed out fishing for the night so the response is simple, but here goes…. do you not believe something needs to change for FFH to get appreciated by the market? IE a corporate action or repositioning? Or do you believe that nothing needs to change and that they’re right and everyone else in the market is wrong? Further off that; would the following help? -NYSE listing -A real buyback -Monetizing big pieces of the equity portfolio if so, why aren’t they doing this?