Gregmal

Yup. Think the real bid/ask on outcomes is now pretty limited. Short term, ie 2-3/4 weeks from now there’s resolution and nothing burger status confirmed, or that window passes and much like with Covid, powers that be realize they can turn the screws to Trump, maybe manufacture a shallow one quarter recessionary print, and then sleep thru midterms and wake up with more favorable political terms.

Only podcasters and day traders looking to create short term headlines. No one with a brain or an incentive to just honestly analyze things takes that seriously because everyone knows energy/oil being high is itself restrictive and has nothing to do with monetary policy relating to inflation. But yea, lotta sensationalism right now.

A 20% supply disruption for a few weeks or months is not an existential crisis. Further, that 20% supply, is not all just turning into poof, nothing. Additionally, other spigots from other areas have temporarily been turned back on. Not every soup de jour needs to have a scenario where it turns into “the Big One”….

Indeed. Ask yourself, if you’ve ever seen a positive story about anything Iran, Russia, China etc in MSM? If so, then determine the bias ratio, ie how many pro stories vs neg ones. This is one area I’ve just never had confidence in ever knowing the truth…you see leaks about how msm outlets openly debate and then decide to can positive stories about the friggin President of the United States, because it doesn’t serve their agenda…then you ponder, if it’s that bad with something like that, will our “foreign enemies” ever be accurately depicted? In a way, it’s a disgraceful disservice to the American people and further proof the press are the enemy of the people.

Yup. All good in the ivory towers.

Yup. They think volatility = risk, and drawdown = loss of money. While also believing that market go up = money that’s earned. While market goes up 10%, and declines 5% = I lost 5%! One is far better off viewing investments through the lens of seeding and harvesting. You can also have various different and uncorrelated gardens to seed and harvest simultaneously. Rather than piss pouting and pontificating about macro crap. For instance, in 2021/2 I made private investments in Ripple, Emulate Bio, and Cerebras. Oh no how could I? Tech was imploding, you cant fight the Fed, funds were blowing up, cash is king…Ripple has already paid me back in cash and mark to market it’s a 10x. Emulate went bankrupt, 100% loss. Cerebras is looking to IPO soon at likely 5x. Seed, harvest. Always something to do.

Yea 50/50 is a joke. The problem is most of these guys are dishonest and more so marketing wizards than market wizards. Klarman is a good example. Burry for instance, has “called” a few things…but only because he’s always “calling” something. His hit rate is pathetic, so who cares? People around here love Howard Marks for some reason; ever read his shit? It’s rambling garbage that one week is bearish the next week is bullish but always wrapped in obscurity and non committal “anything can happen” cop out crap.

The only macro that’s really important to understand is the efficiencies of exploiting psychology. Lately, as in probably the last 5-7 years or so(coinciding with Trump but IMO not necessarily because of him) is this dire need for the charlatans to present every issue as an existential one. Sure, we d all seen enough movies that in the beginning, it’s at least understandable how people got scared with COVID. But outside of that, rate hikes, recessions, wars, etc…people seem to have lost their god damn minds. And the media focus aspect of it is big. But the issues are also greatly exacerbated by every retail guy and short term fund/trader thinking they’re smarter than the markets. They’ll “get out” ahead of it all….the big, (pause), (gulp), then whisper….decline! is always presented as your 2007 Sopranos Finale style…all goes to black moment. Investors largely have one edge, and you can find the Buffett or Munger quotes on this, but it’s time. One of the great ironies when it comes to these smarty pants know it all investors is that they’ll mock people with the sarcastic “stonks only go up” stuff…but then act like “stonks going down” is totally unacceptable. They’ll misuse the Buffett quote of “don’t lose money”….its greatly ironic, hilarious, and an advantage to people who just understand that this is how things work. I mean, if stonks don’t always go up, that means sometimes they go down too! And if one’s fully aware of why they are investing in, shouldn’t the ups and downs simply be part of the process? Volatility is not a violation of “don’t lose money” lmfao. Unless you’re beholden to playing some financial version of red light, green light, where the media and transient events become your daddy, all this stuff just seems like a wonderfully curated campaign manufactured by the brokerage houses and options folks whom benefit off such irrationality.

The difference is my man @cubsfanis invested and enjoying life. Like cheer up, stop fretting most of the real stuff that’s out of your control, definitely stop fretting all the made up stuff that you go out of your way to look for on the internet, and start getting on with your life. The best part about being in your 20s is you can take obscene risks because your timeline is huge and you probably aren’t playing with money that matters anyway. It’s like the dudes who boasted about owning those $10k per person Ibonds in 2022 and it’s like….congrats you locked up your money for $700 LOL you coulda bought UBER for $22, but good job!

Kinda like these people that cant go to a Thanksgiving dinner because of Trump, or drive themselves nuts thinking "democracy is at risk"...and its like, maybe the problem...isn't Trump; maybe its you?

Fair enough. I just think if youre constantly manufacturing a narrative that every day is the beginning of the end...and then youre concerned its effecting your mental health...I mean....you only really have yourself to blame, no?

There are some utterly epic posts from that time period. Ones that personally I’d be quite embarrassed about if I was the one making them…

Come on guys! Blakey poo is gonna need another mental health break soon if you keep at it. Remember Liberation Day was the beginning of the end. At the bottom it was declared how, “we haven’t even begun to see how bad” it was going to get. I guess we still haven’t lol And there in lies the problem with the macro porn guys. It. Never. Ends. Even the guys who “called” the big ones, like the GFC, then spent the next decade calling em repeatedly….repeatedly wrong.

Fixed it for ya lol

Same. I’ve taken a liking to using the golf cart to get around!

One of the drivers in the 70s was this “wage-price” spiral that everyone falsely compared yesterday’s inflation to. There’s were lines to get gas. Things were different, you lived through them. Today? There’s no gas shortage, it’s just “expensive” in a definitely not prohibitive way. And wage growth? Lmfao….Powell killed all chances of that in 2022. I think it’s fair to say that Trumps head is on the chopping block and we ll see with some pretty clear direction what’s happening in April. The effects of this “war” though, pretty much irrespective of that, should be short lived as pretty much all the “consequences” are self inflicted and correctable.

World peace was just an example.....

Yea this is honestly the thing sooooo many elitists and even higher level pragmatists just do not get. If you put one issue on the ballot, lets say "would you sacrifice higher prices(pick something arbitrary, say 15%) for 3 months of time, in exchange for a decade of world peace", you'd be shocked by how many folks would say no. Or "yes but not now"....same with the stock market crowd...."would you trade xyz world/country benefit, if it cost a 15% drawdown"....NOPE! It's disgraceful but this is what drives people. So when you get to the current situation, any sort of recession is a non starter for the voting crowd, as is much stock market response if its in a negative direction...with this being "understood", would you EVER expect any sort of "real" issues to get addressed LOL? NOPE.

So, sure, while a lot of this is fair post mortem stuff, the point of all of this is to make money, no? Not much of any of the above offers any sort of cheat codes you’d expect it to should one have had the proverbial Time Machine. If you went long oil or energy in the months following Ukraine, rather than fade it or go short, you got whooped. Same will likely happen here. I don’t know how you monetize via public markets NATO reckonings. Defense spending, sure, but part of that is not necessarily reflected by Ukraine as much as it is other movements taking place. So a lot of this comes back to the main flaw in a lot of this sort of micro macro trading endeavor. What’s the plan/benefit? With all the variables, timing elements, 95% being nothing burgers, etc? End of the day many things, lots subjective in terms of their quantifiable effect, let alone their ability to be effectively monetized via the market, such as the above with Ukraine, still kinda point me to an endeavor that’s basically deduced to speculating on short term volatility, and if that fails, idk? Then what? The only hindsight I have from the Ukraine wars initial talking points were that you could’ve ignored it and been fine, and if you bought a lot of the stuff that spiked immediately following it, or sold out of the market, you lost.

Like let's check out the Ukraine war for instance. A huge deal was made about this. The Ukraine War thread was possibly one of the longest COBF threads ever. It was branded as guaranteed inflation and with rate hikes coming, "stagflation"(which btw IMO is kind of a fake academic theory rather than any real world proven thing) was inevitable. Today...how has Ukraine impacted investments? Virtually in no way, shape or form. Unless the US government stole your Russian ADRs LMFAO!

You can further layer in complexities and hedges to your investment on a look through basis. I own Fairfax, they’ll make me money. I own RE which is an inflation hedge. The lack of need to really do anything is not only more efficient but also tax wise, ideal to compounding. I mean I’ll use Berkshire or Fairfax as an example because that’s what most on this board look at….why would I part with these? Is the only reason, speculatively, because “stocks might be volatile”? That just seems like gambling.

Few reasons. its totally non consensus. That’s not fundamental, it’s just a bonus. We’ve heard the “don’t own bonds” chants in full force, since….wait for it, NOT 2022 when bonds got killed, but 2023….at best we had brief periods with much worse backdrops, where the 10 year flirted with 5….big whoop. Oil spikes are inherently restrictive in an economic sense. If it continues long enough, the economy sputters, rates dive. History tells us that is how it happens, and the current echos of “too late” resonate not as much of value now, but surely will linger when the time comes to spark the economy. Much of the stagflation thesis revolves around the Fed being stupid enough to raise rates in response to oil prices while ignoring the economy….never happening. But people still think it might because 2021/2 PTSD is living in their heads. Higher rates just mean coupons can be reinvested at better rates. It’s a cash sub with a payoff correlated to shorting the market where cash frees up at the best times.

Not everyone has what it takes to be a winner. You can still do alright for yourself never winning a World Series. The guys who just sit around offering nothing but hot takes need to consistently provide bigger and bolder hot takes just to stay relevant. Pick your side!

Blakey poos kryptonite…how has your brilliance rewarded you on the investment front?

I don’t think most rationale people are still seething with gotcha syndrome over….the use of an adjective….it is pretty clear the first run was a test run, and then for whatever reason they went back to, in their minds, finish the job. You can again find the derangement syndrome folks by following the complete obsession with disproving….a single word in its absolute sense of definition….