Santayana

In the US minimum wage works out to $290/week. Getting an extra $600/week on top of normal unemployment payments will motivate many to stay home as long as they can.

I'm definitely not saying that liquidity issues won't prevent them from executing some things they may have wanted to do, but I don't think they are "swimming naked" as bearprowler6 suggested.

https://www.canadianinsider.com/node/7?menu_tickersearch=FFH+%7C+Fairfax+Financial+Holding

The way insiders have been buying the Preferreds, it's hard for me to believe they have a serious liquidity problem.

Thanks for sharing. Nice to hear someone rationally talk through both sides while admitting that they don't really know what's going to happen.

Dow isn't the best measure, but it's the headline number the public knows about. S&P was down 35% peak to trough, which still makes Greg's point. A lot has been priced in and today's unemployment didn't surprise anyone.

Gregmal, said things went down 40%, not that we were currently 40% down.

You said we never got to 40%, and I was pointing out that we got awfully close. You could have bought near 18,000 on Monday.

Going from almost 30,000 to just over 18,000 on the Dow is close enough to 40% that it doesn't invalidate an argument.

The daily "reset" feature of those leveraged ETFs means they won't always behave the way you think they will.

Either almost every major govt and world health organization is blowing this way out of proportion for the first time in history - or you misunderstand the risks associated with the disease. Which do you think is more likely? The fact that he thinks tens of thousands have died of pneumonia every year for thousands of years makes me question his knowledge of statistics and/or world population trends.

I think the reason you can't completely discount the idea that it's been here for a while is that the R0 will be constantly changing as more people have immunity. The idea of doubling makes sense when most people are susceptible, but once you get to the point where a large portion of the population has already been infected, the spread will start to look very different. What we really need is antibody testing.

Eric, you have the patience of a saint to argue with this guy!

Yep, Buy-Write can be nice approach in a market like this.

Yeti Imperial Stout

With the kind of moves we've been seeing, saying another 10% down could just mean waiting until tomorrow.

Too bad no options, or this could be an Ericopoly moment.

Dropped 25% in 3 hours.....

Isn't that how they profited on the CDS bet? it's different in that those were in the money, but I think they realized the value by selling them before expiration.

There are hyper-inflationary events, but in general inflation is a slow steady slog.

Bought back some of the FRFHF that I sold a couple of weeks ago.

Except that inflation usually happens gradually, but when deflation happens it comes on fast due to a systemic shock. I don't think they'll pay off, but the way markets are acting, who knows.

Ah, good point.

The absence of Ericopoly from the top returns makes your data seem suspect. Although I think it's just because of the timeframe you looked at.

Thank you for clarifying, A_Hamilton.