Santayana

Isn't that how they profited on the CDS bet? it's different in that those were in the money, but I think they realized the value by selling them before expiration.

There are hyper-inflationary events, but in general inflation is a slow steady slog.

Bought back some of the FRFHF that I sold a couple of weeks ago.

Except that inflation usually happens gradually, but when deflation happens it comes on fast due to a systemic shock. I don't think they'll pay off, but the way markets are acting, who knows.

Ah, good point.

The absence of Ericopoly from the top returns makes your data seem suspect. Although I think it's just because of the timeframe you looked at.

Thank you for clarifying, A_Hamilton.

The Zenith net written may not have been what we're looking for, but that 78.3 CR sure looks good!

After all the grief they got over the hedges, I'm sure the last thing they expected to hear on the call was somebody complaining that they weren't hedged enough!

When you look at what the overall markets did last quarter, it's hard to imagine anyone having good investment results. The California fires didn't help the overall results for the quarter either.

And on a 25 year timeframe it's a 10 bagger.

I'm not a chartist, but there seems to be a lot of support around the $510 USD level. It makes me wonder if they have started buying back.

Lots of valid points. I'll just add that looking at a long term price history and ignoring the dividends seems pretty disingenuous. My returns in Fairfax over the past 10 years are pretty comparable to what I would have made in BRK or the S&P.

Ended up doubling my holdings today. About 75% of my long equity position is Fairfax now.

Wish I had been looking first thing this morning. Seems to be rebounding already, just picked some up at $355. Anyone add at the lows?

LOL, thanks for that link Eric. Looks like you are enjoying life in California 8)

Why do you think they have sold them already? Did I miss an annoucement? That money would have had to go somewhere.

The beginnings of the crisis were pretty clear in 2007 to anyone that was paying attention. Bernanke on the other hand said it was all "well contained", there was no danger of the subprime issues affecting the larger economy. My question is did he really not see it, or was he just avoiding yelling Fire! in the theater?

http://www.businessinsider.com/whitney-tilsons-bullish-berkshire-hathaway-2012-3# Good presenation, but does the fact that it's Tilson make anyone nervous? Or is he finally going to get one right?!

except you just pulled 75% out of your hat. it's random. you have no idea how accurate they will be in the future and you have no idea that you can predict with accuracy of 75% what the market will do based on their forecast. I already demolished this notion by pointing out that UNP is way higher, despite two recession calls from ECRI over the last few years. It would have been foolish to sell it based on their forecast. But your idea is a good, if flawed, defense of their service. I don't think he was defending their service.

That only measure the people who are looking for work but can't find it. If you advertise a new job and two previously discouraged people come out of the shadows to apply for it, the unemployment rate goes up. The perma-bears have told us time and again that unemployment is really much higher than it looks due to the number of discouraged workers who have given up looking. Now is their time to jump out and make the denial that I am making (I doubt they will, because they are called perma-bears for a reason). We just don't know which situation is causing the number to rise yet (fewer jobs or more applicants), but it should become more clear in the next couple of months. Or this may just be a temporary blip and we start seeing a decline in the UE% again. Disclosure, I'm not a permabear, just for as long as you've known me :D If only I had listened to my brother back in April 2006 when he told me about his friend Eric that had just made a huge option bet on some company I had never heard of called Fairfax. Then I'd have a lot less to worry about ;D

It appears the employment numbers are in fact weakening now. http://www.gallup.com/poll/152753/Unemployment-Increases-Mid-February.aspx

Flexibility around taxable gains and losses? You might not like the investment results, but book value growth over the past 5 years has been great.

Not hoping for anything specific, just expect Prem to make the right choices about how to allocate capital over the long term.

Thanks rijk!