Santayana

I think SPY puts make a great hedge, but at current volatility levels I wouldn't initiate any new positions. Unfortunately the best time to hedge is when things look like clear sailing, trying to hedge after you see the storm clouds is a difficult proposition. Your best bet would probably be to reduce your long exposure and raise some cash, keeping in mind that you'll kick yourself if your holdings rally from here.

Yah, this is baaaaad. If a primary dealer is able to comingle funds and not get caught (only caught b/c of the bankruptcy), how many other places are doing the same thing? The system needs trust to work, and this is NOT something that helps with that.

Yeah, it's pretty crazy when you can have trillions of dollars of stock value disappear in a couple of trading hours based on the days rumors....errrr I mean "news".

Meanwhile, Italian bond yields keep climbing. Over 6% on the 10 year now.

I don't think the Germans will allow inflation to be the answer.

What's really notable about that to me is that years 1-20 of that period were fantastic for stocks.

That's too funny. My daughter's been streaming The Wonder Years from Netflix lately.

What if the holders of Portugese, Spanish and Italian debt that have thought they were hedged by CDS contracts decide that since their hedge is unlikely to be honored, they better scale back their positions?

I don't disagree with your point about government incentives. But I'm not sure that many English majors could have made the choice to do Engineering instead. The math skills just aren't there. I did a lot of tutoring when I was in school, and the number of 18-22 year olds that can't do 8th grade algebra is pretty astounding.

They've managed to say that is what will happen, they haven't managed to do it yet.

The happy/sad breakeven point for the CR can change from 100 + or -, it all depends how well they are using the float.

Anyone know any details about this? The company has entered into long equity total return swaps on individual equity securities for investment purposes with an original notional amount of $1,118.1.

Foolish like Watsa and Friedberg ;D I think the real pessimists are those who think the world would end just because financial markets crashed. I guess that explains why you don't believe in preparing for a crash. You use the terms doomsday and the end of the world, and I do agree you can't prepare for that. But a Great Depression 2, that's the end of the world, really? Oh, and yes I did enjoy the markets today.

They said these will be "voluntary" writedowns so as not to trigger the CDS. Makes me wonder if they've really got everybody to go along with that yet.

In related news PG&E is cancelling the accounts of all their customers that have bills below $50/month. "They're just not very profitable", sources said.

I'm long BAC as well, I'll be thrilled if it's back up to 20 in the next 12 months. Just pointing out the folly of looking at daily closes.

Closed at the low of day today.

I've never used that indicator, but if that's what the high net worth professional investors are doing, I'd better take a look. ;D

We all have different risk tolerances, but at the end of the day it should be all about what lets you sleep at night. Moore may think it's stupid, but I've chosen to take a very risk averse stance since around 2002. Very different from how I invested in the 10 years prior. I may only be up 30% since 2009 which is all Moore can focus on, but I'm up 400% since March 2003. Once again, I have no need or desire to worry about outperformance over a short 2-3 year time frame. All that matters is that I am comfortable with my own financial circumstances as I consider the long term.

So you're personally worth over a billion (which I highly doubt), you're still acting like an ass. I'm not a professional investor, just a regular guy that goes to work every day and is very happy with his financial situation and managing it himself. A year or two will tell who's right? I didn't realize you were arguing for short term trades, my timespan is a bit longer than that. Maybe you are right, but I don't like to time the market. I'm sorry your mommy doesn't love you. It doesn't mean you're insignificant, so no need to project. I think I've found a potential tester for the 2 and 20 male enhancement pump that I was thinking of marketing. Promises to make a retail investor feel adequate. ;D

I think it is really difficult to compare our outcome so far to the GD. The social safety net that that has grown up since those times makes it unlikely we would ever SEE things like the GD again. Bread lines are replaced by SNAP cards. The chronically unemployed aren't counted. The size of the state and federal workforces dwarfs those from the 1930s. In the depression, there were plenty of people with jobs, and those people were able to do well. Today, the official unemployment rate may be lower, but those who have jobs often are struggling just as much. I know we disagree on this, but you're making the assumption that we aren't decades away from getting out of the current situation. GE failing just means they wouldn't be sending jobs to China right now, and Immelt wouldn't have his white house gig. The gist of what I'm hearing you say is what really scares me. You think that massive federal intervention was necessary and the entire system was the verge of collapse if they didn't act a large way. Doesn't that point to an unstable system? What prevents the same thing from happening over and over?

Actually the best opportunity to make money in the past decade was from the end of 2007 until early 2009. How did you do then? You want to know how I've done since early 2009, how have you done since late 2007? Again, you seem to love looking at short time periods to gauge whether you are "right" and then call others out on market timing. Yes, you are an arrogant a hole and are out of line. My guess is that you are living in your parent's basement and have a 5 --low 5-- figure account. Rather than be ashamed of it, try to realize that there is more to the world than market outperformance. You'll be a lot happier when you grow up.

So you're personally worth over a billion (which I highly doubt), you're still acting like an ass. I'm not a professional investor, just a regular guy that goes to work every day and is very happy with his financial situation and managing it himself. A year or two will tell who's right? I didn't realize you were arguing for short term trades, my timespan is a bit longer than that. Maybe you are right, but I don't like to time the market. I'm sorry your mommy doesn't love you. It doesn't mean you're insignificant, so no need to project.

And people talking like Moore is why I'm convinced we haven't seen capitulation yet.

Oh, I don't think anything would be roaring back, just that we would be closer to a true recovery than we are right now. If TBTF were allowed to fail, that would include Fannie and Freddie, no need for taxpayers to be on the hook. Ginnie Mae is the only one with an explicit government guarantee.