formthirteen

I tried not to sell too early, but my strength failed me today. The stock is up ~500%, so it was simply time for me to leave the party while the music is playing. BYD is still a great company. Nothing has changed. BYD's future is perhaps brighter than I imagined. I still think the company is China's version of TSLA.

Exited 1211.HK and SHAK. I would have liked to hold these two forever but the market is looking a bit stretched ::) Quo Vadis Capital has a nice presentation on SHAK and competitors: http://quovadiscapital.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/92/2019/10/SHAK-presentation-Cyprus-Value-Investor-Conference-Oct-2019.pdf They were right about SHAK when the presentation was published (Oct 2019) and I believe they are right again...

Leftovers from March: AMCX, GIL, and GOOS. Plus, some SCHW.

FFH ::)

Investing in a Bubble: https://mailchi.mp/verdadcap/investing-in-a-bubble

1211.HK

QS, BLNK, BLDP, PLUG, FCEL? QS is already down +50% from the top. I'm no expert and I don't know all the pitfalls to look out for, which is why I generally avoid buying options, but this bubble all the innovation happening everywhere seems like a generational opportunity for options speculators.

DC.L

JEF. I probably sold too soon if they continue executing well with TBV at $26.49 :-[

Looks interesting with revenue growth, stable margins, and high ROIC. This thing deserves a thread of its own, IMO. Maybe this is similar to MU, cyclical, long-term trend is upwards, buy when others are looking the other way?

JBGS, FFH, PGRE, MO :P

I would answer "I don't know". I'm interested in knowing the probability of negative health effects from the vaccine vs. COVID-19 before taking any vaccine. I would definitely not take the first batch of the swine influenza vaccine (in hindsight). Contracting COVID-19 is (currently) a very low-probability risk. The vaccine could be mandated by the government and be a 100% certain risk. Lots of variables and uncertainty... The decision is easier for people who are at risk. If you have diabetes and hypertension the decision is a lot easier...

These stocks seemed interesting until I had a look at the attached USD vs Mexican Peso graph.

The future is bright for cryptocurrency :P: China has ~70% of the mining power. My personal opinion is that cryptocurrency is designed in a way that makes it possible to create the biggest bubble of all time. The crazy thing is that if enough people believe in Bitcoin it will become a self-fulfilling prophecy. History repeats itself. I like to speculate that the biggest use for cryptocurrency today is: 1. Money laundering (Russia, China, etc). 2. Transferring money out of the country (Russia, China, etc). See for example Tether https://tether.to/. 3. Fundraising through ICOs. People will fund anything. If you had a startup idea before cryptocurrencies, good luck with getting any money. Today, just include "ICO" and "blockchain" in the press release and people will literally sell their house and give you their life savings to fund your luxurious lifestyle and crazy ideas. 4. Speculation that there is a greater fool. This includes believing Bitcoin is gold or a currency. 5. Stealing other people's money online through ransomware and hacking exchanges and computers. 6. Buying drugs and guns illegally. 7. Buying things. 8. Making a bet that, for example, Bitcoin will someday become a useful technology. Today it is not. 9. Destabilizing countries. This will become more popular, or might be the reason Bitcoin was created originally. As you see, I am speculating that the usefulness of Bitcoin today is close to zero unless you are a criminal or you are raising funds. The only thing I would bet on is #8. About the future, I know nothing so I'm not buying any bitcoins.

Bingo. They are looking at scaling solutions... It's just kind of crazy that it's valued at $120B and they haven't implemented scaling yet. Usually when you develop a software solution that needs to scale you take care of that at step 1, not after the software is live. There's a conflict between scaling the Bitcoin network and keeping the blockchain safe from tampering. That is why, to solve the scalability issue, most transactions will have to be moved to a layer built on top of the Bitcoin blockchain. The lightning network is one proposed solution: https://lightning.network/lightning-network-paper.pdf

The problem of proving identity does not need a blockchain to be solved. You can simply use digital signatures, e.g., PGP. In your example the blockchain would be useful for removing intermediaries (e.g. Youtube, GMail). Blockchain can also be used for cutting out middlemen like Goldman Sachs, AIG, etc.

I prefer not to pay for online services. A one-time payment for lifetime membership would be easier to swallow ;)

I think of blockchain as the new internet bubble and the various coins as dot-com startups. The blockchain technology has a bright future. Bitcoin might be Amazon.com, or pets.com, most likely something in between. The bitcoin whitepaper: https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf Here's an interesting article by a guy who created a precursor to Bitcoin: https://unenumerated.blogspot.com/2017/02/money-blockchains-and-social-scalability.html

Thank you! Yes, I'm working on the sorting functionality and should have an improvement next week. Out of curiosity, how would you like to sort? I think default should be position size for the individual portfolio, and total # of investors for the Total Portfolio; otherwise it just becomes the Berkshire portfolio.... Performance is going to be a challenge without opening up my wallet. Right now just trying to see if there's a market for it, and if so, I can invest more accordingly. I like to consider myself a steward of shareholder capital... :P Yes, I prefer the sort order to be "% of total portfolio" and "total # of investors". The best way to see if there's a market, IMO, is to ask if people are willing to pay. If you think of the project as a learning experience then it's a win-win for you regardless of the outcome.

Very nice for a first version! The good parts: - your site has a lot of data that I haven't seen on other 13F screeners - it has most of the investors I personally follow The not so good: - site loads slowly for me - blue font on a blue background is very difficult to read - the default sort order is not optimal for me

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/02/ex-chesapeake-ceo-mcclendon-dies-in-car-wreck-day-after-indictment.html

GoodHaven's performance was -17.49% in 2015. 2015 was a difficult year for value investors who invested in highly-leveraged and commodities-related companies. http://www.goodhavenfunds.com/media/pdfs/2015_AR.pdf

Thank you. There is also an interesting story about Sears and a lunch with Charlie Munger that happened in June, 2009:

I try to follow the "the multiplication rule", so I thought a discussion around the concept would be interesting: https://fundooprofessor.wordpress.com/2015/11/28/multiplication/ Warren Buffett: Charlie Munger: Douglas Adams This concept simplifies the investment process. However, as Buffett points out, you should not write off low-probability events with high consequences. I agree that the best way of mitigating risk is buying good businesses: Keep it simple, and be paranoid.