Dalal.Holdings

Germany has basically been in recession for years... no one in the EU or German elite seems to really care and yet they wonder why AfD has become so popular...

Yeah I guess you can consider it a state owned enterprise given the gov't gets 78%...but it has worked out very well for Norway. The problem with UK tax at that level is that its politicians want to end fossil fuel production completely while also taxing it. Then, when there is a crisis, they get squeezed by high prices.

No ShitLab?

Norway has taxed EQNR at 78% for a while but also encouraged it drilling in the North Sea--they have let it operate freely...Norway has a massive sovereign wealth fund and massive exports in oil and gas to the rest of Europe as a result. UK raised taxes on its oil industry while over-regulating it and talking about banning it outright (in addition to crippling refining, chemicals, etc) at the altar of the "Net Zero" cult/religion--hence, UK North Sea production has dwindled and now the UK imports oil and gas from Norway via Equinor who drills in the North Sea (lol).

Amazing that you see so much coal usage in China yet mostly Left leaning journos in the West continue to tout how China is somehow a "leader" in green energy: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/sep/07/china-fossil-fuel-us-climate-environment-energy https://www.npr.org/2025/11/18/nx-s1-5525934/as-china-becomes-the-global-leader-in-renewable-energy-the-u-s-is-falling-behind https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/12/briefing/chinas-green-triumph.html These kinds of leftists intellectuals are why German chemical companies like BASF shut down plants in Germany powered by clean sources and move them to China--only to be powered by coal and have much fewer environmental regulations...They are clueless about the world

Well hey, if Oman agrees to impose a toll, then both sides of the Strait are accounted for--this could actually occur (as opposed to Iran having a unilateral toll on the Strait). Guess it'll be a tax for China, India, Europe, Australia, Japan to pay. If they don't want to pay it, they'll have to to something about it. Fortunately the U.S. is fossil fuel independent and it doesn't really matter for America. Still think it's very unlikely this "toll" lasts beyond short term. Other Gulf States and major powers unlikely to tolerate it. Not to mention all the "international law" believerrrs

Fortunately I bought a bunch of stocks that were on sale in the past few weeks...did you? And what about folks like you that get excited about doomsday scenarios and depressed when they don't pan out ?

Seems a lot of ships going to be going through in the coming days and a lot of pent up oil & gas supply going to be dumped onto markets...

U.S. has also learned a lot about drone, ballistic missiles, and other asymmetric warfare...plenty of time for the U.S. to adapt to better prepare for future conflicts that will employ these It was also a great live demonstration of U.S. AI capabilities and other high tech experimental stuff that was actually useful (including rescue of the pilot): https://nypost.com/2026/04/07/us-news/ghost-murmur-a-never-used-secret-tool-deployed-to-find-lost-airman-in-iran-in-daring-mission/

LOL, they opened it... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-07/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-april-8?srnd=homepage-americas

Very simple then in Mafioso language: The Strait will be open during peace time because the 5 families of New York (USA, Europe, China, Japan, India) want it that way. "War is bad for business."

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/04/07/world/iran-war-trump-news Pour one out for oil bulls who were praying for WW3...

Sounds like you've been watching too many mafia movies

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-war-2026-trump-deadline-latest-news?mod=WSJ_home_mediumtopper_pos_1 Lol...

Maybe the Germans will learn the hard way:

LOL "Iran providing protection"...from Iran??? Makes no sense.

Don't think anyone needs bilateral agreements with Iran during peacetime... UAE and Oman on the other half of the Strait. Rules about coastal/international waters/etc means Iran cannot have unilateral control of the Strait in peacetime. The only reason they have control now is because they can threaten to attack any ship that doesn't comply. Good luck doing that in peace time.

When there is a ceasefire, exactly what means will Iran use to enforce the toll? What will the penalty be to any ship that goes through without paying? They'll attack the ship and break the ceasefire? Iran has no way to enforce a toll in peacetime.

IMO this is wrong. Not going to happen. Iran charging a toll for transit indefinitely would be casus belli for the Gulf States. No way they tolerate that in the long run. Saudi Arabia and UAE in particular would be livid if Iran was milking off the top of their exports. Add to that China, India, and every other importer won't stand for it. Iran is only on one side of the Strait--they have no right to control it. Iran may use the Strait as leverage to get what it wants, but if they attack a ship with a mine or missile for bypassing its toll once a ceasefire is in place, it would trigger an immediate war--and the Gulf States would likely join in against Iran.

As highlighted by Doomberg, what’s hilarious is U.S. nat gas prices have collapsed in the past few weeks…because gas is co-produced with oil from these shale wells and gas is expensive to transport. So in some ways, energy for Americans (who use nat gas in a lot of ways) might actually get cheaper…lol. Can’t say the same for those who rely on LNG though like Europe which has chosen the path of energy fragility the past decade+

$100-$120 oil is actually not that expensive in inflation adjusted terms. Oil peaked at $150 around 2008 which would be over $230 today. $100-120 a barrel today is like $70 a barrel in 2008…not economically devastating. A lot has changed since then too in terms of GDP growth, EVs around the world, U.S. shale revolution in oil and gas… Now if we get sustained $200 plus, it could be a problem…

Well if high prices last a little while (say months), then everyone around the world boosts production. Then if the Strait gets resolved and all the Gulf supply hits the market, it will tank oil... Right now the only major scenario where oil squeezes much higher is if Iran goes all out against Gulf suppliers & infrastructure (such as East-West pipeline and others, production facilities, refiners, ports, etc)...one would hope that the U.S. posture in the region has made it so that Iran would not be capable of achieving that, but we'll see

The Iraq-Turkey pipeline, Fujairah, and East-West pipeline are ~10M barrels a day combined. That's around half estimated pre-war export from the Gulf. Add in Iranian tankers that are getting through as well as ballsy ship operators who are risking it through the Strait along with other means of leakage of oil from the region, and also don't forget increasing Russia, Venezuelan, U.S. Shale, Guyana, etc production and eventually supply catches up. You can be sure that producers elsewhere in the world are looking to capitalize on >$100/barrel prices any way that they can

That's the one thing doomers aren't accounting for -- the world will quickly adapt when so much is at stake Everyone wants to sell their barrels at $110 a pop. The cure for high prices is high prices...

Down 30% since being promoted on Substack, X/Twitter, etc by "value" guys...don't look at PRN.L either