Dalal.Holdings

I’m tilted towards Europe too, but I think they only do well if their dumb politicians and bureaucrats stay out of the way

European car industry (and suppliers, workers, etc) better hope Walter is wrong again

Nailed it.

I believe in Tariffs and I believe in some of the antagonism with China. What’s becoming clear from the leaks about what happened over the weekend/past few days is that Trump has a breaking point too. However, he shoots from the hip very often and the question is if he does long term damage to the credibility of the United States in the process. It’s only after shooting from the hip, he sees if he’s done too much damage (talks to Bessent, hears what Dimon says, looks at Bond yields) and then backs off. The Tariffs on friends were way too high and even now the China tariffs are extreme and will crush businesses. So now he’s gonna play chicken with Xi and we’re all along for the ride. I hope Treasury gets to refinance our debt at low yields because Yellen was totally incompetent / and or corrupt in helping Biden by not issuing LT notes. And I hope we reshore some critical industries and don’t let China own these industries instead.

When “buy the dip” dies and “sell the rip” lives, that’s how bear markets are born. A lot of retail folks have been buying the dip because it has worked so well for so long, but they might be in for painful lessons.

Yep. And now corporate managers have a very easy excuse that fell in their laps for missing guidance and/or revising it lower

Navarro definitely pushing the quack economics...now overruled

90 days of negotiations. I doubt the friends get their rates jacked up if they comply. China remains in the doghouse ? Does EU get 10% or are they ineligible due to their retaliation today? Those guys in Brussels are really clueless

The cavalry isn’t coming

I think the most positive news that will come soon will be some deal with Japan / Vietnam or other allied trading partner. I think the administration will continue to go hard against China though.

It’s clear that the Trump tariffs are too high, especially on friends. This was likely pushed by nutjobs Navarro and Lutnick. Too many people arguing on here “all tariffs are bad” or “the tariffs are always good”. Or “all free trade is good”. The real answer is in the gray area.

The U.S. needs to build the capability to process and concentrate rare earths. It's a national security issue. I believe MolyCorp used to be a dominant producer of certain rare earths

GFC pangs started in Summer of 2007. It took over 18 months for markets to bottom in March of 2009. Sure, the GFC was much bigger than whatever this will end up being, but it hasn't even been a week since "liberation day". I can't believe people are talking about blowing their loads on 10% drawdowns over 3 trading days. What is this, a bear market for ants ?

If you are buying FICO at 80x earnings, PLTR at 60x sales, COST at 53x earnings then even a 5-10 year horizon probably will not be enough no matter how "good" these companies may seem. See what happened to MSFT or CSCO from people who held from 2000 on. So much opportunity cost wasted.

Republicans have not lately had a good track record at cutting expenses and raising revenue, but there are some new signs that I found shocking: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-07/republicans-warm-to-millionaire-tax-hike-to-pay-for-levy-cuts

Another strategic capability the U.S. should figure out and Tariffs can serve as a forcing function to achieve that.

What happens when the Tariff revenues add up to real dollars? U.S. imported some $4 Trillion worth of goods last year... Tariffs are taxes by another name...

The Biden WW2 levels of deficits were the stimulus the markets were addicted to. The market has been running on massive fiscal stim for a while now.

Tesla and SpaceX are examples of high end manufacturing the U.S. can excel at. But we also need shipbuilding. And we should also probably be building drones. China’s drone output is concerning

Unlike the 3 week covid “bear market”, there will be no massive stimulus, there will be no checks in the mail sent to every citizen, and there will be no J POW printing like crazy. The cavalry isn’t coming to the rescue. If you draw parallels with that puny bear market, you will get burned. Act accordingly.

He’s the Rudy Giuliani of Trump’s second term…

I’m glad voices of dissent are allowed. Musk, Ackman, Bessent etc. Navarro and Lutnick need pushback because they’re Tariff maximalists Just grab some popcorn and enjoy the show

I am glad that some people in Germany are getting it. A remilitarized Germany is the best thing one can do to thwart Putin’s long term ambitions.

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/07/trump-bessent-trade-deals-tariff-endgame-messaging-00277395 Sounds like Bessent is the only grown up in the room with nutjobs Lutnick and Navarro vying for chaos