Dalal.Holdings

Nice job.

Do you really think that the oil ppl will under any circumstance vote D? Also how is this helping shale patch voters? Last time I checked you don't need a lot of people to not drill. Margins on Pres elections in the U.S. is not very large. Even a low single digit swing either way can change the color of a state. All it takes is economic hardship from shale to trickle to other businesses in those areas to threaten the admin's security in those regions. Farmers + oil folks are key constituents for R's. Even the appearance of doing something--like attempting to broker an OPEC agreement--goes a long way in helping secure votes (even if those attempts fail to stop job losses).

The shale patch and associated votes are worth a lot to this admin's reelection campaign. So are farmers. They will try whatever it takes to bail these sectors out. Remember, as in 2016, you do not need to win the most votes (popular vote) to win the election, you just need to win votes that are in the right places.

You're right, this Lancet study is good enough for me for the time being. And so are you! You treasure, you!

This is interesting. Netherlands used policies more or less intermediate compared to places like Austria on one side and Italy on the other with, as expected, more or less intermediate results. Netherlands has also produced interesting work on influenza vaccine effectiveness and is a good relative European student in terms of historical flu vaccinate rates. It looks like (picture developing) that the CV does behave (intrinsic features) similarly to the influenza virus, with the main difference being that the population tends to have a much lower natural immunity to it and there is no vaccine, not even a partially effective one. Reasonable extrapolation of data in the Netherlands suggests that the eventual death rate from CV (with some social distancing and other basic measures) will look like (compare to a reasonable degree) the typical death rate for influenza, had there been a 0% rate of vaccination. What society is doing is basically trying to adapt (with various levels of 'success') to this new and evolving reality. @LC Thank you for supplying the link for the European monitoring of mortality with seasonal variations. Apologies. To my own embarassment upon re-reading this I made a primary school calculation error here (my only defence: it was early). 3100 out of 500 000 obviously isn't 0.06%, but 0.6%, which makes quite a bit of difference here, Still not quite the 3% some are saying, but definitely not flu percentages either. https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S1473-3099%2820%2930243-7 See Table 1. Estimated CFR 1.38%, >10x deadlier than the Flu. The best CFR from published studies is in the vicinity of 1% which is 10x deadlier than Flu. The 3% antibodies is not good news for feasibility of herd immunity as you note. British government backed off of that strategy quickly...

Happy to be on the green line, even if it means I “predicted wrong” to some! :D

No, they were appallingly bad, to the extent that I'd lose a some degree of respect for all doctors if it weren't for Dalal's sensible posts on this thread to pull me back off that ledge. Frankly, it terrifies me that doctors exist who ignore evidence for gut feel, make wild speculations not even supported by common sense let alone facts, and then when the evidence proves them wrong, continue to insist that they were right. (What the heck is one to do if one seriously needs a doctor, and this is the doctor one gets? Just roll over and die?) Lol. Please point to me where I was wrong Dick? Dalal's sensible posts? Jesus Christ, which ones? the chicken little the sky is falling ones? the never ending cock sucking of Taleb? The tiresome Buffett and Munger quotes? The personal attack ones? The one where he told Gregmal "Fuck you" when he was wrong? The never ending Trump bullshit and political innuendo. The ones where he insulted myself and others unabated? Cherzeca was right, you belong in the Dalal pile too. You want to align yourself with that childish bullshit? Be my guest. We could have a 10 page thread of just his/her insults throughout the message board. Quite a character on the end of that keyboard. Self assumingly witty, smart, and bumptious but in all honestly if the real life personality matched what has been typed out on this message board a DSM-5 evaluation would be in order. You mean i told that guy to fuck off after he mocked NYers dying in “the cesspool”. You continue to make things up. It’s ok, in your corner you have: - Gregmal - cubsfan - chezerca A.k.a. The best of the best You typed that stuff no one else, and it has nothing to do with corners or teams. If in real life you treat people with same vitriol and aggression that you do on here then maybe you need to actually re read those Munger/Buffet quotes because let me tell you are not even in the same galaxy. Bro, I don’t care about arguing further. Like I said, new policy. I am glad it hasn’t been the worst case scenario and we’ve flattened. Just like being glad I didn’t have to use my seatbelt. If in your book that means I too predicted wrong, then so be it. Carry on.

No, they were appallingly bad, to the extent that I'd lose a some degree of respect for all doctors if it weren't for Dalal's sensible posts on this thread to pull me back off that ledge. Frankly, it terrifies me that doctors exist who ignore evidence for gut feel, make wild speculations not even supported by common sense let alone facts, and then when the evidence proves them wrong, continue to insist that they were right. (What the heck is one to do if one seriously needs a doctor, and this is the doctor one gets? Just roll over and die?) Lol. Please point to me where I was wrong Dick? Dalal's sensible posts? Jesus Christ, which ones? the chicken little the sky is falling ones? the never ending cock sucking of Taleb? The tiresome Buffett and Munger quotes? The personal attack ones? The one where he told Gregmal "Fuck you" when he was wrong? The never ending Trump bullshit and political innuendo. The ones where he insulted myself and others unabated? Cherzeca was right, you belong in the Dalal pile too. You want to align yourself with that childish bullshit? Be my guest. We could have a 10 page thread of just his/her insults throughout the message board. Quite a character on the end of that keyboard. Self assumingly witty, smart, and bumptious but in all honestly if the real life personality matched what has been typed out on this message board a DSM-5 evaluation would be in order. You mean i told that guy to fuck off after he mocked NYers dying in “the cesspool”. You continue to make things up. It’s ok, in your corner you have: - Gregmal - cubsfan - chezerca A.k.a. The best of the best

I made it policy to no longer respond to you (Schwab711 does a good job anyway), but you attempt to call me out here and grossly mischaracterize my statements--"fearing a collapse in the healthcare system" does not equal "predicting complete collapse of healthcare system": No, collapse did not happen thanks to - NYC lockdown, - every single hospital in NYC turning itself inside out, - Cuomo, - cancelling all elective cases, - A military ship, - Javit's center, - A tent in central park, - And more unprecedented, never before done actions taken Saying I should be criticized for fearing healthcare collapse in early March (before any of these things were put in place) is laughable. And btw, the deaths were exponential until the curve flattened thanks to all of these unprecedented, never-before-done measures. Finally, You are and have been consistently wrong and refuse to eat your bowl of crow. So, your bowl is going cold--can I just have it instead? Groceries are hard to come by these days. Thanks. That still means you were wrong though and every model you quoted and took to heart was also, and yes you quoted models. Tough to take I know. Your predictions never matched reality, and never were going to. You were unhinged and scared. People do weird things and are irrational when they are scared, and it was obvious you were. Your forgiven. Lol. Putting a seatbelt on does not mean one is predicting a car crash. But to each his own.

I made it policy to no longer respond to you (Schwab711 does a good job anyway), but you attempt to call me out here and grossly mischaracterize my statements--"fearing a collapse in the healthcare system" does not equal "predicting complete collapse of healthcare system": No, collapse did not happen thanks to - NYC lockdown, - every single hospital in NYC turning itself inside out, - Cuomo, - cancelling all elective cases, - A military ship, - Javit's center, - A tent in central park, - And more unprecedented, never before done actions taken Saying I should be criticized for fearing healthcare collapse in early March (before any of these things were put in place) is laughable. And btw, the deaths were exponential until the curve flattened thanks to all of these unprecedented, never-before-done measures. Finally, You are and have been consistently wrong and refuse to eat your bowl of crow. So, your bowl is going cold--can I just have it instead? Groceries are hard to come by these days. Thanks.

The bolded part of your quote is key. Furthermore... IL-6 blockers & hydroxychloroquine--if they work is likely due to immune suppression (which is how these work in Rheumatoid arthritis). However I would argue then that these are not drugs to use in every covid patient, but rather exclusively in covid patients with ARDS. Right now you have a bunch of PCPs instructing people to take hydroxychloroquine while recovering at home--who knows if immune suppression is actually a good thing in the early stages of covid? It may actually make things worse. With ARDS--which is an inflammatory condition where your immune system goes into overdrive (neutrophil mediated) and damages lung tissue--immunosuppressants may help reduce severity, but to use it in COVID infections without ARDS may not help and may actually instead make the course of infection worse by ramping down immune protection.... A lot of uncertainty, but then you can just look at your bolded statement and that's enough to draw conclusions about these treatments. (Inverting the problem)

And don’t forget the downside of these drugs: Prolonged QT interval is not a benign thing

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-15/germany-likely-to-extend-national-lockdown-measures-until-may-3-k913n3v2 The benefits of acting early and aggressively (like aggressive testing, lockdowns) are enormous. There is a clear outlier among countries with the largest number of confirmed cases—see attachment.

C. The answer is c.

And now this: "Whoa, 147 (36%) out of 408 people tested positive for the #coronavirus at a large homeless shelter in Boston https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.12.20059618v1. More interestingly, only ~1/6 showed symptoms among those tested positive, i.e. 1:5 for symptomatic vs asymptomatic. #COVID19" So...um...from the BMJ study: Does this sound like a random sample? If I tested residents of a nursing home with a large cluster of covid cases, is that result going to give me the population incidence? Or is it going to vastly overestimate it? What about if I find 15% in a region dubbed “German Wuhan” had antibodies. Do you think the number for the rest of the population is a) much higher, b) equal to, or c) much lower? Hint: there is only one answer here with nearly 100% confidence.

Herr Dicktator is pure Cialdini genius. Buying votes legally. And it will work because people won’t know that Congress has the power of the purse, not the Executive. When this guy is out of office, he should teach a MasterClass in how to fool some of the people—after all, what do you expect from a longtime casino operator? LOL! Congress should insist that the cheques be signed by "The Nancy"! ✍ Somehow this fool got Nancy and Chuck to write for trillions in bailout in an election year (they sure don't play the game like Mitch McConnell does). And yet we keep hearing about how the "opposition party" is holding Trump back from making us great again... Idiot moves like this (insisting his name goes on the checks) injects politics right into these packages and risks that Dems will no longer play ball with subsequent stimulus which they were planning.

Herr Dicktator is pure Cialdini genius. Buying votes legally. And it will work because people won’t know that Congress has the power of the purse, not the Executive. When this guy is out of office, he should teach a MasterClass in how to fool some of the people—after all, what do you expect from a longtime casino operator?

Sold off some more TSLA (thx Mr. Market). p(TSLA trades signif lower at some point in the future) is high, so will look to buy back in if opportunity comes up later (after this FOMO rally stalls). Still holding onto some though.

A committee that will have no actual power. Finally, a fitting assignment for Jared & Ivanka!

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1250063051182747651 Presidential--with a capital 'P'. Somebody jelly of President Cuomo, wants to capture the political upside of Cuomo's stellar management (but "takes no responsibility" for any of the downside--Mr. 'Zero skin in the game' Trump!).

Herr Dictator announced: "The beatings will continue until morale improves." Trump, Feb. 28: "The press is in hysteria mode" over coronavirus. Trump video, April 13: "The media minimized the risk from the start." First it was a “hoax” exaggerated by the lame stream media, now it was minimized too much by the media. Which is it derp? Maybe when he means “minimized by the media”, he is exclusively referring to the leaders of his fan club Hannity and Limbaugh...let’s not forget his own minimizing just weeks ago...

Herr Dictator announced: "The beatings will continue until morale improves." Lol...this is fine tho. I am more worried about the government telling me I have to shutter my business during a pandemic out of concern for “public safety” and the infringement on my liberties than I am of a demagogue making some clear power grabs. This guy only runs the Presidency like a family biz—wut could go wrong ? Someone call that savant Kushner, I need some professional medical/epidemiological/economic advice.

10. Everyone is a potential vector for the disease but the young will barely be affected. Children should not be locked up when they are essentially protected from almost any symptoms of the disease. The sooner they get the virus, the sooner they can develop immunity. In other words, the sooner my kids get it, the sooner I will get it, and my wife, and her coworkers, and their spouses and spouse's coworkers, etc... etc... Children don't live at home alone, what is this author dreaming about? Any parent with young kids in school/daycare understands that children bring home infections that they acquired from other households (other kids in school/daycare). It has long been shown influenza declines when schools are shut (Winter break or forced closing in hard hit areas with flu). Schools serve in many cases as a reservoir whereby infections are transmitted to new households. The fact that kids tolerate this in a mild way makes it worse--they are not going to stay home sick because they may not even notice the infection. They're going to go to school and play with other kids while having mild or no symptoms. The kids that catch it will also have mild/no symptoms and bring it home to parents/grandparents/etc (new household infected).

When you try to capture the upside in reopening: https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1249712404260421633 But remember, it was the states’ responsibility to get masks and ventilators. Will be up to real leaders w boots on the ground (e.g. Cuomo, not this guy) on how we reopen.

So lie about the reported numbers? Where’s Hannity when you need him? And somebody fire Fauci...