flesh

most of us know the benefits of free trade by now, this video will familiarize you with both sides. Notice who won. It’s not simple. “He who knows only his own side of the case knows little of that.“

A simpler way is just look at the deficit, 985b 2019, 1.85t+now. If there wasn’t significant fed employee growth, how many other employees were created resulting from an additional 1t spend that would disappear if the 1t was cut? I’m not saying it’s dollar for dollar, even if it’s 25% or 250b/year, it’s a lot of employees. its looking real good? ” For the year, the deficit totaled $1.15 trillion through the first five months of fiscal 2025. The total is about $318 billion more than the same span in 2024, or roughly 38% higher, and set a record for the period. Net costs to finance the $36.2 trillion national debt edged lower to $74 billion for the month. However, the total net interest payments year to date rose to $396 billion, just behind national defense and health. Social Security and Medicare are the largest costs in the U.S. budget. The deficit swelled in the final three years of former President Joe Biden’s term, growing from $1.38 trillion to $1.83 trillion.

It’s about all costs and who’s paying them. Usa de facto pays for Canada’s defense uncompensated because Canada is part of nato and has a weak military/spending and the usa will have to spend it’s citizens money to protect Canada should anything happen, the fact nothing has happened simply means Canadians are unlikely to think it’s a real cost, because they haven’t paid it. If the usa had spent less on defense for decades because Canada spent more, usa would be better off. This also reflects the nato is bullshit thread/leave nato idea. NATO gets into wars in the future and then we pay for them because our “friends” past underspending. Add that the usa can’t afford it and remain the best of the worst leaders of the free world. Coming together?

More hatchet please. On another note… I can’t find it but maybe deep research can.. I read a few months ago an article that included growth in jobs that result from govt spending.. contractors and the like, the growth was massive last four years.. also, I keep hearing sensible financial types saying yes we need to cut spending.. often they agree it needs to be cut a lot, then they say but not this way or that way… without offering their own presumably better ideas. What is it you’re going to cut (not just you the poster) that’s not going to piss off everybody? If your answer is defense, fine.. cut it 10-20% hypothetically, the deficit is still 1.8-1.9t what else? Dalio says get the deficit to 3% of gdp or about 1t a year, rates will come down as a result saving 100’s of bs of interest. That’s his magic number. If we don’t get close he says usa is stage 5 of 6 iirc of a failing leading nation state and reserve currency. Some say grow the economy. Great except that the only reason the economy appeared robust in the first place was massive deficit.. you can’t project the fake growth of the last years into the future. You can’t expect similar growth while also cutting massively and you can’t run these deficits much longer, compounded by the ss/Medicares massive costs growing in the next 10 years. You certainly can’t expect the left to do it at all except by raising taxes massively which will reduce growth and it’s four years until they could. 4 years is too long. This must happen now.

We might see some high iq level coming soon from curry butler green combo. Not quite there yet but on the path. Also, why sleep on Stockton Malone? As a combo they must be considered high iq. I’m biased here in utah but cmon! They had no one else on the team… maybe you could make an argument for 15 ppg hornacek but they did it as a duo forever! Here’s a breakdown of the Utah Jazz’s “just lost” or playoff eliminations during the 1989-1999 period, based on each season’s playoff results: 1989-1990 Season: • Regular Season Record: 55-27 • Playoff Result: Lost in the First Round to the Golden State Warriors (3-2). 1990-1991 Season: • Regular Season Record: 54-28 • Playoff Result: Lost in the Western Conference Finals to the Chicago Bulls (4-2). 1991-1992 Season: • Regular Season Record: 47-35 • Playoff Result: Lost in the First Round to the Portland Trail Blazers (3-2). 1992-1993 Season: • Regular Season Record: 55-27 • Playoff Result: Lost in the Western Conference Semifinals to the Phoenix Suns (4-1). 1993-1994 Season: • Regular Season Record: 53-29 • Playoff Result: Lost in the Western Conference Finals to the Houston Rockets (4-1). 1994-1995 Season: • Regular Season Record: 60-22 • Playoff Result: Lost in the Western Conference Semifinals to the San Antonio Spurs (4-2). 1995-1996 Season: • Regular Season Record: 55-27 • Playoff Result: Lost in the Western Conference Finals to the Chicago Bulls (4-2). 1996-1997 Season: • Regular Season Record: 64-18 • Playoff Result: Lost in the NBA Finals to the Chicago Bulls (4-2). 1997-1998 Season: • Regular Season Record: 62-20 • Playoff Result: Lost in the NBA Finals to the Chicago Bulls (4-2). 1998-1999 Season: • Regular Season Record: 37-13 (lockout-shortened season) • Playoff Result: Lost in the Western Conference Semifinals to the Portland Trail Blazers (3-1). Summary: The Utah Jazz made the playoffs every season from 1989 to 1999, and their biggest “just lost” moments came in the NBA Finals in 1997 and 1998, both times losing to the Chicago Bulls and Michael Jordan. Their consistent excellence in the ’90s is evident, with several deep playoff runs, but they were always just short of securing the ultimate championship.

I agree, it’s never okay and we need free speech to sort it out, the freest type of free. By all means call out all bullshit when you’re confident you’ve done the work to know you have a good case. I’ll start, Trumps Desire for money and fame/promotion are repulsive. His lifelong yearning for young women shows his immaturity and need to meet the most animalistic needs. I’m glad despite what he might do for our country that my son won’t see him as an example. Etc Since I threw a stone, I’ll just say that half of what I did to make money was total bullshit, a real shame. Legalized stealing. I’m glad I know that. I lied tens of thousands of times. It’s called sales/marketing. Etc. Given the existential nature of the situation I’d like trump to raise taxes on the wealthy, short term if necessary in addition to his other ideas to raise rev. Maybe cubs can call out some of what he sees in trumps actions or policies that aren’t ideal.

I could pull some AOC and Kamala quotes of the “defund the police” and “equity/equal outcomes” “hiding it from parents if their child has claimed they are a different gender” and similar variety that likely represents 25% of the dem party including half my extended family, from the last 5 years that if seen through to the end would’ve been extremely damaging and more Orwellian if executed than what trumps looking to execute imo. Of course it’s true that trumps rhetoric matters more, hes president, Kamala was close and I believe she wouldve done her best with far left ideologies once president insofar as she could without showing it in her first term to get re-elected. I disagree with the implied cult assumption proportionally between the parties. However my Bayesian prior that may not be shared by others is that the woke left is a cult and large/growing. If by cult we mean dogmatically religious about their ideology distanced from our best forms of truth telling and time tested beliefs. Calling out trump. I’ve heard about a meme coin he’s involved with, sounds really bad and might be if true. Javier milei, same thing ish. His first term was pretty mild in terms of legislation. Clearly can’t judge this one at this point based on outcomes.

Lots of Lying by politicians. If you define lying as the conscious or unconscious willingness to not do the hard work it takes to not even partially speak an untruth, politicians are lying 95% of the time. That’s a high standard though as they are just people. Their self definition probably falls in line with most others practiced form of truth telling which is whether or not it feels honest at the time and or falls in line with what has been felt as honest in the recent past. “Whose song I sing whose bread I eat”. Generally to the degree that instincts are involved you’ll see a greater degree of lying. How many men lie to women more than to men? Who lies more when 100k is on the line vs not? I don’t believe the Don aka orange man, lies much more than others, I do believe he lies differently, his lies tend to be of a newer variety that doesn’t match with the lies of the more comfortable sort that have been recently felt as true. This is felt as more lying if you thought the comfortable lies of the past were true. If you’re a connoisseur of truth/lies, orange man isn’t surprising at all as the frequency/magnitude of lies haven’t changed much. Side note, I read Sam Harris book titled “lying” 12 years ago, it turns out it’s very difficult not to lie, also people tend to get very angry when you are seriously honest to the best of your ability at all times. If you really boil things down, you’ll find that “everything is a belief and all beliefs are untrue”. Vast majority of science is true if its assumptions are true, are they (?) and it’s scientific truth is often context/domain dependent as well. Buffett is more honest than most, he’d never get elected.

I’ll try to translate trumpese for you. He knows that the total fentanyl crossings from Canada are minor. He wants them reduced. The primary reason he says this is so that he has a stronger reason to impose tariffs that will hold up and he believes that something about trade relations are unfair… smokescreens. It could be subsidies to certain industries, existing tariffs, tariff like instruments that have the same or similar effect, restrictions, or any other form of distorting effect. Of course free trade with friendlies and maximizing comparative advantage is the ideal, the ideal is never what happens. I posted in another thread with no response but I’ve yet to see a thorough analysis of all distorting effects on trade between usa and Canada. I personally done know if it’s fair or close to it. If it is I’ll agree it is if it’s wholistic. Regarding whether or not trumps strategies are, if I’m right, lying. I suppose you could say he’s lying partially.. in the sense that he uses one small reason as the main reason for what he’s doing. Otoh if he’s right and trade is unfair and In order to straighten it out he can’t see another path forward…. That’s a more difficult question. I don’t see how anybody can confidently say anything wo considering what I’ve written here. I originally come back to cobf recently thinking the Canadians … or somebody.. being the smart analytical types that invest.. would have a competent analysis of the trade between the two countries and found the opposite. I haven’t had time to do it my self but I’ll try. Also, if the usa is going to produce some things here for strategic reasons, antifragilityreasons, then that means by definition we will be buying less of those things Elsewhere and that means elsewhere wont be happy about selling less stuff to us. If we can’t compete for ammo prices and we need to manufacture our own, we may need tariffs. Also don’t assume those of us who voted for him are cultists, you won’t learn anything that way. In 2016 my father voted for him, and hated doing so, being a lifelong Mormon, the cleanest sort, only because he knew the Supreme Court appointees were coming up. He has no idea what happening in general. for myself, doge and cutting the deficit to 3% of gdp was paramount and the rest noise and I saw the opposite inclination since forever on the other side. For me, if this happens and wars don’t get worse, I’m willing to deal with the fallout as I see it as existential. I voted for Obama Romney Hillary then trump trump. Other things matter but I rank order them low compared to a snowballing debt/interest rate/inflation problem. For me the biggest mistake of the last four years was allowing the economy to be shuttered excessively and raining money in massive excess. Biggest mistake I’m aware of in my lifetime. I said that here March 2020 more or less. Then Biden doubled down when the coast was clear. Destroyed the lives of tens of Millions of non asset owners for 79 year olds with 2.5 co morbidities who were going to die shortly and whom we could have targeted for relief at 1/100th the cost.

Polls are bullshit. So is mainstream media. All coordinated. We’ll see who liked trump in about two years and again in 4 years.

Yes, and Luca will burn calories so bron doesn’t have to until it counts. They are maybe one piece away from being right there. over at golden state we have jimmy buckets doing the same for steph now. Although he sometimes seems to barely try on offense, let’s see if we get playoff jimmy this year. Kuminga back soon.

Trump will control the fed. He can adjust tariffs to induce fed changes in rates. Get bargains to some degree in the meantime. 10t govt debt rolls over this year iirc. Some tariffs stick to some degree for strategic reasons some adjust downwards over time. Increases o shoring if critical infrastructure.. 3% of 10t is 300b a year saved pays for tax cuts ish .. Americans not poorerish after tax.. 50 yr bonds at 3% then begin pivoting? Thinking this for a month or so.. coming together.

If you haven’t heard Dalios thought on what the usa needs to do economically fiscally etc recently this is good.

Unfortunately I don’t have any good ideas here. thinking about usa steel co’s for the first time, maybe ever. Steel being part of a long term onshoring trend. The usa doesn’t want to depend too much on others for critical resources anymore? If this and similar ideas are enduring certainly there’s some opportunity here. How long will the tariffs last? How much operating leverage is involved and for which companies?

Not that anyone cares but I still don’t believe it. My question really was about the would Europe send 150b part? So China is on the other side of Mexico. They have fought for whatever 15% of southern Mexico and control it.. the usa has spent 150b giving weapons etc to Mexico and we ask Europe to send 150b to Mexico and they do? Then we ask them to continue to send 50b a year indefinitely after three years and they do with no end in sight? Also there’s plenty of evidence that usa has been encroaching closer and closer to chinas borders and they’ve been complaining about it for decades etc. Again pretty sure they assume we can deal with it from the get go. of course the above assumes Mexico has no protection agreements w anybody… not going to attempt a perfect analogy. Europe wouldn’t send us money, they’d help us if it escalated beyond this, like direct war. Also sweet, seriously end the adhominem attacks against everyone, I don’t know if you’re 6’5” 250 or what but where I’m from you would not last. I come here to hear thoughtful intelligent people make reasoned arguments, which you do, laced with constant invective. Are you capable of making your points without attacking the individual or is that your psychic payoff? Do you speak this way to peoples faces? Can we please elevate this board beyond the self control of a Reddit thread? We are better than this.

I can’t prove it but It’s probably true… most coffees are high in toxins and or mold. This is the majority of the problem. It’s a it’s not natural problem it’s a function of what’s changed since evolutionary times. What happens if you drink mold and toxins 2-3 x a day for decades to your brain? Same for red meat studies.. they don’t use or control for lifelong grass fed meat eaters. Grass fed meat is 3or4/1 omega 3/6 ratio non grass fed beef/lamb is the exact opposite. High omega 6 low omega 3 diets cause inflammation.. if you cause mild inflammation regularly for years what happens? Also grass fed meats are leaner significantly.

Not sure your point about bases. Seems a question of a different sort vs should america pay 100s of billions to help non nato countries in or near Europe. im with Gregmal, why are we paying anything? Another question is, depending on what Europe does what should we do? That’s much harder. I’ve spent the last day trying to think of a analogically similar situation where the usa has some border countries fighting each other and Europe gives one of them 100bs and can’t think of any but maybe I’m not creative enough. Pretty sure Europe and Europeans would just assume we can handle it.

Ya I guess I’d wear a suit if everyone did and it was the president and in a country that expects it but I’d also be tolerant to a president with equal title whos standards are different and who’s been in a existential life threatening crisis for years. I certainly wouldn’t have been so shortsighted ans been the guy who couldn’t control his own disgust response and reflect on the matter when so much is at stake.

I had to go down to 1/8-1/4 cup vodka mixed no later than 1pm to notice no effect on sleep. 1/4 with meal 1/8 without and only on non workout days.. post workout the effects on sleep is worse. Day drinking is healthier. Doesn’t seem like much but over time your tolerance goes down and I still get a buzz. Little anecdotal tidbit.. the healthier you body is.. your desire for any drink diminishes automatically.

My best guess is that trump wanted a deal and to get recompense secured first. Once that’s done.. and not before.. he can figure out a way to provide security, he’ll have to say “here’s x security” to the public… it needs to seem weak/in putins favor. The non disclosed deal will be stronger. This allows Putin to save face and project a win. Putins ego won’t allow a deal to be done where he doesn’t look like the victor. This means everyone will think it’s a weak deal and hate on trump however the teeth will be shown by lack of future problems of the same sort. It’ll be shown nearer term in the form of weapons and or other countries militaries moving into post war Ukraine territories. Protections. The future undisclosed actual plan will cost usa money.. needs a deal first. Trump doesn’t and shouldn’t disclose all cards. The seemingly total openness and massive media involved day to day gives deflection/framing/cover for actual strategies in general. Creates a veneer of confusion. Lastly, I hate suits, they are costumes, if someone treats me differently without one that’s on them. It’s like the diamond for marriage nonsense or the 3 months pay for the ring nonsense.

I’m not maga, just want the deficit at 3% if gdp and wars to end. However your comment is premature, also, you’re assuming goals that aren’t goals. I’ll be looking at results over time and not much else. Not temporary feelings. All the haters need to ask themselves now, what if anything would they consider a win. Write it down. Look at it in a couple years. There will be some and of course there won’t be because different goals.

See below. The problem is insofar as we know is multi faceted. Caffeine works better after adenosine levels have come down. Also sleep studies show some correlations with better sleep if you wait 90 minutes. There’s strong evidence that drinking more than two shots espresso equivalent for an average male affects sleep quality. Also very strong evidence that drinking within 12 hours of sleep time does as well. The closer to sleep time of course it’s non linearly worse. I’ve been focused on optimizing sleep for about a year now… love espresso so had to get it dialed. anecdotally, I’ve found the above true. Also it helped reduce sluggishness later in the day. Also most have a habit of drinking when they wake and then needed more and they just are horribly out of rhythm but don’t know different. I have Brian Johnson’s nutty putty pudding recipe upon waking (with the nuts on the side so it’s a smoothie) and a tbsp of high polyphenol olive oil and w protein added and feel great. Double shot 90 minutes after waking. No more caffeine. Adenosine levels follow a natural cycle throughout the day and night, primarily influenced by sleep and wakefulness. Here’s how adenosine levels change during sleep and after waking: 1. Adenosine Levels During Sleep: • Throughout the night, adenosine levels gradually increase as a byproduct of brain activity and cellular processes. This buildup of adenosine is thought to promote sleepiness and the need for rest. • The more deeply you sleep, the higher the adenosine levels become. The longer the sleep period, the greater the adenosine buildup, which contributes to the feeling of “sleep debt” that needs to be recovered. 2. Adenosine Levels 1–2 Hours After Waking: • After waking, adenosine levels begin to decrease because the body starts using energy and processing the byproducts of the previous day’s brain activity. • 1 hour after waking: Adenosine levels are still relatively high but beginning to drop. You might still feel some sleepiness or grogginess at this point. • 2 hours after waking: Adenosine levels continue to decline and you’ll generally feel more alert, as the body’s natural wakefulness processes ramp up. By this point, your body has likely cleared a significant portion of adenosine, and the sleep inertia (grogginess) begins to dissipate. Drinking caffeine during the early stages of waking (especially within the first 30–60 minutes) may not have as potent an effect since adenosine levels are still relatively high. However, waiting a bit longer (like 90 minutes or so) allows adenosine levels to decrease, and this can make the caffeine more effective at enhancing alertness.

You want to find coffees 3rd party tested for toxins and mold. Costs more. Many coffee packed with anti nutrients. also you need to wait at least 1 hour after waking to drink it ideally 90 minutes. Limit to double shot espresso caffeine equivalent. Has to do with adenosine levels and actually benefitting from it. don’t drink any caffeine for 12 hours before bed, proven to disrupt deep sleep cycles.

Great article. I hope the result is Europe looking to balance the trade deficit and the usa being contented. I am concerned about free speech stuff in Europe. I think it’s obvious ai is instrumental in the future of any world leading countries. Europe regulations will likely stifle and has stifled its own prospects.

This thread, although it would be fantastic if it simply contained people’s best ideas minus ad hominem attacks and or implications of idiocy on one’s counterpart, is important for investing.